Molde vs Rosenborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Molde at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Molde vs Rosenborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Molde and Rosenborg meet at Aker Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 28. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 6 November 2021 at 00:00 UTC.
Form
Molde (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Molde, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Aker Stadion, Molde have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). They are averaging 3.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Molde are significantly better at Aker Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Rosenborg's overall Eliteserien record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: L D W D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Rosenborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rosenborg away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading & In-Play
Molde — key trading statistics (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 82% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
Rosenborg — key trading statistics (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Molde 60% and Rosenborg 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Molde 80% | Rosenborg 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Molde 1.81 xG and Rosenborg 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Molde attack 1.348 / defence 0.978 | Rosenborg attack 1.015 / defence 0.753. League average goals — home 1.789 / away 1.208. Molde carry an above-average attack strength of 1.348 — their λ of 1.81 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Rosenborg's defence strength of 0.753 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 55 Molde games / 55 Rosenborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Molde 50% | Draw 27% | Rosenborg 23%. Fair-value odds: Molde 2.00 | Draw 3.70 | Rosenborg 4.35. Molde hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.81 / 1.20) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Molde are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Molde if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.01 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Molde 50% | Rosenborg 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Molde vs Rosenborg | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Aker Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Nov 2021, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Molde 50% | Draw 27% | Rosenborg 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 61% | xG Molde 1.81 / Rosenborg 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Molde attack 1.348 / def 0.978 | Rosenborg attack 1.015 / def 0.753 | league avg home 1.789 / away 1.208 • Poisson stance: Molde (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
Molde xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Rosenborg xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Molde vs Rosenborg kick off?
Molde vs Rosenborg kicked off at 00:00 on Saturday 6 November 2021 at Aker Stadion.
Where is Molde vs Rosenborg being played?
The match is being played at Aker Stadion.
What competition is Molde vs Rosenborg part of?
Molde vs Rosenborg is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Molde vs Rosenborg?
Our statistical model gives Molde a 50% chance of winning, Rosenborg a 23% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Molde the favourite.
Will both teams score in Molde vs Rosenborg?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Molde and Rosenborg will score (BTTS).
Will Molde vs Rosenborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Molde and Rosenborg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Molde and Rosenborg in?
Molde (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. Rosenborg (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Molde's attack rating (1.35) and Rosenborg's defence rating (0.75), the model arrives at 1.81 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Rosenborg's attack (1.01x) against Molde's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.20.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Molde Win
50%
2.01
27%
3.68
23%
4.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
Molde xG
Total xG
3.01
1.20
Rosenborg xG
2.01
50%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
4.33
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.53
Clean Sheet
30%
3.31
16%
6.13
Win to Nil
15%
6.66
4%
26.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 5.9 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 10.7 | 6.4 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.7 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.9 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Molde vs Rosenborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Molde and Rosenborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Molde and 1.20 for Rosenborg, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Molde vs Rosenborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Molde's recent record stands at 34W 7D 14L from 55 games, a 1.98 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Molde is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rosenborg, meanwhile, have gone 27W 13D 15L across 55 games — 1.71 PPG, with L-D-W-D-L in their last five. The sample for Rosenborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.98 PPG for Molde against 1.71 for Rosenborg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Molde have managed 21W 2D 4L from 27 games — 2.41 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.98 PPG overall — Molde are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Rosenborg's away record stands at 9W 8D 10L across 27 trips, a 1.30 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.71 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rosenborg's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Molde come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Molde are averaging 2.44 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Rosenborg are on 1.82 scored and 1.24 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Molde have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Rosenborg in 60%.
Last 55 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Molde
Blended
Rosenborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Molde and Rosenborg in coming into this match?
Molde have gone 34W 7D 14L in their last 55 games (1.98 PPG), while Rosenborg have gone 27W 13D 15L in their last 55 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Molde at home or Rosenborg away?
Molde's home record (2.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Molde at home: 2.41 PPG; Rosenborg away: 1.30 PPG.
Have Molde or Rosenborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Molde have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Rosenborg in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Molde have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Molde won 4-1 on 21 Nov 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Molde have gone 4W 2D 0L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Rosenborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Molde
4
Draws
2
Rosenborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Molde and Rosenborg?
From 10 meetings on record, Molde have won 4, Rosenborg have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Molde and Rosenborg last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Molde 2-0 Rosenborg.
Who has won more matches between Molde and Rosenborg?
Molde have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Molde are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 63% of the time.
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Molde 52%, Rosenborg 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 82% for Molde and 59% for Rosenborg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 56% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Molde keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Rosenborg in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Molde home games / Rosenborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Molde play Rosenborg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Molde's recent matches and 56% of Rosenborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Molde vs Rosenborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 82% of Molde's matches and 59% of Rosenborg's.
Do Molde and Rosenborg tend to score early?
Molde have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Rosenborg in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Molde's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Molde and Rosenborg finished level at 0-0 at Aker Stadion, Regular Season - 28, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Molde 1.81 xG and Rosenborg 1.20 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Molde fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Rosenborg landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Molde attack 1.35 / defence 0.98 against Rosenborg attack 1.01 / defence 0.75, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Molde 50% | Draw 27% | Rosenborg 23%, with Molde to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 74% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Molde 80%, Rosenborg 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Molde's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Rosenborg's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Molde 1.98 PPG, Rosenborg 1.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Molde (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.89 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.96 average — tighter than their form line. Rosenborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.