Viking vs Lillestrom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Viking at 67%, yet other data sources diverge — this Viking vs Lillestrom fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Lillestrom make the trip to SR-Bank Arena to face Viking in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 8. The match kicks off on Sunday 16 May 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Viking's overall Eliteserien record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W W D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Viking at SR-Bank Arena this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Viking 2.48 xG and Lillestrom 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Viking attack 1.173 / defence 0.958 | Lillestrom attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.837 / away 1.304. Data: 32 Viking games / 0 Lillestrom games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Viking 67% | Draw 20% | Lillestrom 13%. Fair-value odds: Viking 1.49 | Draw 5.00 | Lillestrom 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Viking (67%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.54. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.54 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.48 / 1.06) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Viking are the pick at 67% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.54 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Viking vs Lillestrom | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: SR-Bank Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 16 May 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Viking 67% | Draw 20% | Lillestrom 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 61% | xG Viking 2.48 / Lillestrom 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Viking attack 1.173 / def 0.958 | Lillestrom attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.837 / away 1.304 • Poisson stance: Viking (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.48
Viking xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Lillestrom xG
61%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Viking vs Lillestrom kick off?
Viking vs Lillestrom kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 16 May 2021 at SR-Bank Arena.
Where is Viking vs Lillestrom being played?
The match is being played at SR-Bank Arena.
What competition is Viking vs Lillestrom part of?
Viking vs Lillestrom is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Viking vs Lillestrom?
Our statistical model gives Viking a 67% chance of winning, Lillestrom a 13% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Viking the favourite.
Will both teams score in Viking vs Lillestrom?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Viking and Lillestrom will score (BTTS).
Will Viking vs Lillestrom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Viking and Lillestrom?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Viking and Lillestrom in?
Viking (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-D-D-L. Viking home split: 1.80 PPG from 10 | GF 2.50 / GA 1.50 | CS 2.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Viking's attacking strength (1.17x league average) is weighed against Lillestrom's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.48. Flip it around — Lillestrom's attack (0.85x) against Viking's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
The sample (32/0 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.5%. Close behind: 2-0 (8.9%), 1-1 (8.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Viking Win
67%
1.50
20%
4.93
13%
7.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.9%
Home win
3 – 1
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.48
Viking xG
Total xG
3.54
1.06
Lillestrom xG
1.50
67%
Home win
4.93
20%
Draw
7.76
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.59
Clean Sheet
35%
2.89
8%
11.92
Win to Nil
23%
4.33
1%
92.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 7.2 | 7.6 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.5 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.4 | 7.8 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.6 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Viking vs Lillestrom?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Viking and Lillestrom expected to score?
The model projects 2.48 expected goals for Viking and 1.06 for Lillestrom, a combined total of 3.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Viking vs Lillestrom?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Viking
Pre-Season
Lillestrom
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 20 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Viking have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Viking won 5-1 on 23 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Viking have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Lillestrom — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Viking
0
Draws
2
Lillestrom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Viking and Lillestrom?
From 10 meetings on record, Viking have won 8, Lillestrom have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Viking and Lillestrom last play each other?
They last met on 20 September 2026, when Viking 3-0 Lillestrom.
Who has won more matches between Viking and Lillestrom?
Viking have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Viking home games / Lillestrom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Stalemate at Viking's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Viking and Lillestrom finished level at 0-0 at SR-Bank Arena, Regular Season - 8, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Viking 2.48 xG and Lillestrom 1.06 xG, a combined 3.54. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Viking fell 2.5 short of their projected output. Lillestrom landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Viking attack 1.17 / defence 0.96 against Lillestrom attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 32/0 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Viking 67% | Draw 20% | Lillestrom 13%, with Viking to win its most likely call at 67%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.