Bodo/Glimt 4-0 Rosenborg – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Bodo/Glimt at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Bodo/Glimt face Rosenborg.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Bodo/Glimt and Rosenborg meet at Aspmyra Stadion in Eliteserien (matchday 8). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 24 May 2025 at 18:00 UK time.

Current Form

Bodo/Glimt's record over their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). Last five: L D D W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

Bodo/Glimt's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across their last 10 home games (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 3.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Rosenborg (all games): 7W 2D 1L across their last 10 — 2.30 points per game. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

Rosenborg away from home: 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.80 PPG for Bodo/Glimt against 2.30 for Rosenborg. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Bodo/Glimt's last 10 home games and Rosenborg's last 10 away games) — Bodo/Glimt have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Rosenborg in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 6 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 2 apiece, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 4.2 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 28 Oct 2024, ended Bodo/Glimt 2–3 Rosenborg — a Rosenborg win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading & In-Play

Bodo/Glimt — key trading statistics (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 57%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 53%.

Rosenborg — key trading statistics (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; of the 24 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bodo/Glimt 58% and Rosenborg 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Bodo/Glimt 65% | Rosenborg 65%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Bodo/Glimt 1.44 xG and Rosenborg 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.364 / defence 0.822 | Rosenborg attack 0.971 / defence 0.683. League average goals — home 1.550 / away 1.407. Bodo/Glimt carry an above-average attack rating of 1.364 — their 1.44 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Rosenborg bring a tight defence (rating 0.683, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Bodo/Glimt's projected output down. Data: built from Bodo/Glimt's last 35 games and Rosenborg's last 38.

Result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 44% | Draw 28% | Rosenborg 29%. Fair-value odds: Bodo/Glimt 2.29 | Draw 3.61 | Rosenborg 3.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Bodo/Glimt at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bodo/Glimt if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.57 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though recent form (Bodo/Glimt's last 10 home games and Rosenborg's last 10 away games) averaging 4.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.2 goals per game across 6 H2H matches point the other way.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Bodo/Glimt 70% (last 10 home games) | Rosenborg 60% (last 10 away games).

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