Ham-Kam 2-1 Molde – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Molde (46%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Ham-Kam face Molde.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Briskeby Arena plays host to Ham-Kam versus Molde in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off: Sunday 25 May 2025 at 13:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Ham-Kam have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home at Briskeby Arena, Ham-Kam have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Molde (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: W D D W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Molde's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
On a straight form reading, Molde are the stronger side — 0.90 PPG clear of the hosts (1.80 vs 0.90). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Molde hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 4 wins from 6 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Aug 2024, ended 0–3 with Molde winning.
It is worth noting that Molde have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading & In-Play
Ham-Kam — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Molde — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ham-Kam 42% versus Molde 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ham-Kam 48% | Molde 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ham-Kam 1.11 xG and Molde 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ham-Kam attack 0.890 / defence 1.127 | Molde attack 0.966 / defence 0.780. League average goals — home 1.597 / away 1.384. Molde's defence strength of 0.780 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 37 Ham-Kam games / 37 Molde games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ham-Kam 27% | Draw 27% | Molde 46%. Fair-value odds: Ham-Kam 3.70 | Draw 3.70 | Molde 2.17. Molde hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Molde as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Molde if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.61 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Ham-Kam 20% | Molde 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ham-Kam vs Molde | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Briskeby Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 25 May 2025, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ham-Kam 27% | Draw 27% | Molde 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Ham-Kam 1.11 / Molde 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Ham-Kam attack 0.890 / def 1.127 | Molde attack 0.966 / def 0.780 | league avg home 1.597 / away 1.384 • Poisson stance: Molde (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Ham-Kam xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Molde xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ham-Kam vs Molde kick off?
Ham-Kam vs Molde kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 25 May 2025 at Briskeby Arena.
What was the final score in Ham-Kam vs Molde?
Ham-Kam 2 - 1 Molde.
Where is Ham-Kam vs Molde being played?
The match is being played at Briskeby Arena.
What competition is Ham-Kam vs Molde part of?
Ham-Kam vs Molde is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Ham-Kam vs Molde?
Our statistical model gives Ham-Kam a 27% chance of winning, Molde a 46% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Molde the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ham-Kam vs Molde?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Ham-Kam and Molde will score (BTTS).
Will Ham-Kam vs Molde have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ham-Kam and Molde?
Record (6 meetings): Ham-Kam 0W | Draws 2 | Molde 4W.
What form are Ham-Kam and Molde in?
Ham-Kam (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-L-L. Molde (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Ham-Kam's attack at 0.89x the league average against Molde's defence at 0.78x — combine the two and it projects 1.11 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Molde's attack (0.97x) against Ham-Kam's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.51.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (9.4%), 1-2 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Molde Win
27%
3.68
27%
3.68
46%
2.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Ham-Kam xG
Total xG
2.61
1.51
Molde xG
3.68
27%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
2.19
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
22%
4.51
33%
3.03
Win to Nil
6%
16.59
15%
6.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 11.0 | 8.3 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 12.2 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 6.8 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ham-Kam vs Molde?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Ham-Kam and Molde expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Ham-Kam and 1.51 for Molde, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Ham-Kam vs Molde?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 60 outings, Ham-Kam have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 18W 13D 29L record — W-D-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Molde's form line: 30W 13D 17L from 60 games, 1.72 PPG, last five W-D-D-W-L.
Put side by side, Molde are the form team by 0.60 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Ham-Kam.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Ham-Kam have posted 1.23 PPG from 30 outings (10W 7D 13L).
On the road, Molde have gone 13W 7D 10L from 30 away games — 1.53 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Ham-Kam are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Molde are on 2.15 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ham-Kam
Current Season
Molde
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ham-Kam and Molde in coming into this match?
Ham-Kam have gone 18W 13D 29L in their last 60 games (1.12 PPG), while Molde have gone 30W 13D 17L in their last 60 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ham-Kam at home or Molde away?
Molde's away record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ham-Kam at home: 1.23 PPG; Molde away: 1.53 PPG.
Have Ham-Kam or Molde been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ham-Kam have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Molde in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 13 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Molde go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Molde won 5-0 on 9 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ham-Kam have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Molde — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Ham-Kam
2
Draws
7
Molde
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ham-Kam and Molde?
From 10 meetings on record, Ham-Kam have won 1, Molde have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ham-Kam and Molde last play each other?
They last met on 13 September 2026, when Ham-Kam 1-5 Molde.
Who has won more matches between Ham-Kam and Molde?
Molde have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ham-Kam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Molde are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ham-Kam 30%, Molde 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Ham-Kam) and 63% (Molde).
On the defensive side: Ham-Kam keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Ham-Kam have failed to score in 43% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ham-Kam home games / Molde away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ham-Kam play Molde?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 30% of Ham-Kam's recent matches and 57% of Molde's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ham-Kam vs Molde usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Ham-Kam's recent games and 63% of Molde's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ham-Kam and Molde tend to score early?
Ham-Kam have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Molde in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Ham-Kam defy the odds to beat Molde 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ham-Kam beat Molde 2-1 at Briskeby Arena, Regular Season - 8, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ham-Kam 1.11 xG and Molde 1.51 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Ham-Kam beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ham-Kam attack 0.89 / defence 1.13 against Molde attack 0.97 / defence 0.78, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ham-Kam 27% | Draw 27% | Molde 46%, with Molde to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Ham-Kam win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ham-Kam 48%, Molde 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ham-Kam's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Molde's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Molde arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.12. Form was overturned, with Ham-Kam winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Ham-Kam (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm. Molde (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.