Bodo/Glimt vs ODD Ballklubb – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt at 61% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bodo/Glimt vs ODD Ballklubb encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Bodo/Glimt welcome ODD Ballklubb to Aspmyra Stadion in Eliteserien (matchday 29). Kick-off is Saturday 20 November 2021 at 00:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Bodo/Glimt have gone 7W 3D 0L — a 2.40 PPG return. Last five: W D W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Bodo/Glimt at home: 7W 2D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
ODD Ballklubb — last 10 games: 1W 4D 5L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, ODD Ballklubb have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On current form, Bodo/Glimt have the edge — a 1.70 PPG advantage (2.40 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Bodo/Glimt have won 2, ODD Ballklubb 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 4 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.5 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 12 Sep 2021, ended Bodo/Glimt 1–1 ODD Ballklubb — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Bodo/Glimt in-play and half-time data (last 56 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 57% of the time; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 67%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
ODD Ballklubb in-play and half-time data (last 56 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bodo/Glimt 61% versus ODD Ballklubb 59%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Bodo/Glimt 71% | ODD Ballklubb 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bodo/Glimt 1.89 xG and ODD Ballklubb 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.036 / defence 0.788 | ODD Ballklubb attack 0.850 / defence 1.019. League average goals — home 1.792 / away 1.228. Bodo/Glimt have a tight defence (rating 0.788), which is pulling ODD Ballklubb's projected output down. Data: built from Bodo/Glimt's last 56 games and ODD Ballklubb's last 56.
Result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 61% | Draw 26% | ODD Ballklubb 14%. Fair-value odds: Bodo/Glimt 1.65 | Draw 3.86 | ODD Ballklubb 7.38. The model has a clear lean to Bodo/Glimt (61%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.71 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Bodo/Glimt's last 10 home games and ODD Ballklubb's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.5 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Bodo/Glimt 50% (last 10 home games) | ODD Ballklubb 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bodo/Glimt vs ODD Ballklubb | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 29 | Venue: Aspmyra Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 20 November 2021 at 00:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 61% | Draw 26% | ODD Ballklubb 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Bodo/Glimt 1.89 / ODD Ballklubb 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.036 / def 0.788 | ODD Ballklubb attack 0.850 / def 1.019 | league avg home 1.792 / away 1.228 • Poisson stance: Bodo/Glimt (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.89
Bodo/Glimt xG
Expected Goals
0.82
ODD Ballklubb xG
50%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bodo/Glimt vs ODD Ballklubb FAQs
What time does Bodo/Glimt vs ODD Ballklubb kick off?
Bodo/Glimt vs ODD Ballklubb kicked off at 00:00 UK time on Saturday 20 November 2021 at Aspmyra Stadion.
Where is Bodo/Glimt vs ODD Ballklubb being played?
The match is being played at Aspmyra Stadion.
What competition is Bodo/Glimt vs ODD Ballklubb part of?
Bodo/Glimt vs ODD Ballklubb is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 29) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Bodo/Glimt vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our statistical model gives Bodo/Glimt a 61% chance of winning, ODD Ballklubb a 14% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Bodo/Glimt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bodo/Glimt vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Bodo/Glimt and ODD Ballklubb will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Bodo/Glimt vs ODD Ballklubb have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Bodo/Glimt's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against ODD Ballklubb's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.89. The same calculation in reverse, ODD Ballklubb's attack versus Bodo/Glimt's defence, projects 0.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Bodo/Glimt's last 56 games and ODD Ballklubb's last 56 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 11.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (11.6%), 1-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodo/Glimt Win
61%
1.65
26%
3.86
14%
7.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.9%
Home win
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.89
Bodo/Glimt xG
Total xG
2.71
0.82
ODD Ballklubb xG
1.65
61%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
7.38
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
44%
2.28
15%
6.64
Win to Nil
27%
3.76
2%
49.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.5 | 10.3 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.9 | 9.8 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.5 | 6.2 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.5 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bodo/Glimt vs ODD Ballklubb Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bodo/Glimt vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Bodo/Glimt and ODD Ballklubb expected to score?
The model projects 1.89 expected goals for Bodo/Glimt and 0.82 for ODD Ballklubb, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Bodo/Glimt vs ODD Ballklubb?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Bodo/Glimt come into this having played 56 games, going 42W 10D 4L for 2.43 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-D.
On the other side, ODD Ballklubb sit at 1.29 PPG from 56 outings (20W 12D 24L), a run that reads D-D-L-D-L across their last five.
Bodo/Glimt carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.14 PPG clear of ODD Ballklubb — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Bodo/Glimt's home form reads 24W 3D 1L across their last 28 home games, a 2.68 PPG return.
Away from home, ODD Ballklubb have taken 1.07 points per game from their last 28 away games (8W 6D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bodo/Glimt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Bodo/Glimt are averaging 2.77 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; ODD Ballklubb are on 1.61 scored and 1.82 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bodo/Glimt have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bodo/Glimt
Blended
ODD Ballklubb
Blended
Bodo/Glimt (Home) vs ODD Ballklubb (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bodo/Glimt
Blended
ODD Ballklubb
Blended
❓ Bodo/Glimt vs ODD Ballklubb Form FAQs
What form are Bodo/Glimt and ODD Ballklubb in coming into this match?
Bodo/Glimt have gone 42W 10D 4L in their last 56 games (2.43 PPG), while ODD Ballklubb have gone 20W 12D 24L in their last 56 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bodo/Glimt at home or ODD Ballklubb away?
Bodo/Glimt's home record (2.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bodo/Glimt at home: 2.68 PPG; ODD Ballklubb away: 1.07 PPG.
Have Bodo/Glimt or ODD Ballklubb been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bodo/Glimt have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, ODD Ballklubb in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from July 2020. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent in our data was on 23 November 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: Bodo/Glimt have taken the most recent 5 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 6 Aug 2022, when Bodo/Glimt won Bodo/Glimt 7-0 ODD Ballklubb.
Bodo/Glimt's record when hosting ODD Ballklubb specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Bodo/Glimt
1
Draws
2
ODD Ballklubb
Recent Meetings
❓ Bodo/Glimt vs ODD Ballklubb H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and ODD Ballklubb?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Bodo/Glimt have won 7, ODD Ballklubb have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Bodo/Glimt and ODD Ballklubb last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 November 2024: ODD Ballklubb 0-2 Bodo/Glimt.
Who has won more matches between Bodo/Glimt and ODD Ballklubb?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 68% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
ODD Ballklubb are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bodo/Glimt 54%, ODD Ballklubb 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Bodo/Glimt and 54% for ODD Ballklubb. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bodo/Glimt keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; ODD Ballklubb in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bodo/Glimt home games / ODD Ballklubb away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bodo/Glimt vs ODD Ballklubb Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bodo/Glimt and ODD Ballklubb matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Bodo/Glimt's recent matches and 46% of ODD Ballklubb's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Bodo/Glimt and ODD Ballklubb matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Bodo/Glimt's matches and 54% of ODD Ballklubb's.
Do Bodo/Glimt and ODD Ballklubb matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 86% of Bodo/Glimt's recent matches and 68% of ODD Ballklubb's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Bodo/Glimt's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Aspmyra Stadion, Regular Season - 29, as Bodo/Glimt and ODD Ballklubb drew 0-0 in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bodo/Glimt 1.89 xG and ODD Ballklubb 0.82 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Bodo/Glimt fell 1.9 short of their projected output. ODD Ballklubb landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bodo/Glimt attack 1.04 / defence 0.79 against ODD Ballklubb attack 0.85 / defence 1.02, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bodo/Glimt 61% | Draw 26% | ODD Ballklubb 14%, with Bodo/Glimt to win its most likely call at 61%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bodo/Glimt 71%, ODD Ballklubb 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
ODD Ballklubb's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 2.43 PPG against 1.29. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Bodo/Glimt (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 3.18 scoring average — below par going forward. ODD Ballklubb (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.