ODD Ballklubb 2-4 Kristiansund BK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates ODD Ballklubb at 54%, yet in-form Kristiansund BK provide a compelling counter-argument — this ODD Ballklubb vs Kristiansund BK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Skagerak Arena plays host to ODD Ballklubb versus Kristiansund BK in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off: Sunday 7 November 2021 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
ODD Ballklubb's overall Eliteserien record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L D D L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for ODD Ballklubb, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, ODD Ballklubb have posted 3W 3D 4L at Skagerak Arena — 1.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — ODD Ballklubb are significantly better at Skagerak Arena than their overall form suggests.
Kristiansund BK (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: W D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Kristiansund BK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kristiansund BK's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Kristiansund BK arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.40 vs 0.70) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: ODD Ballklubb 1W, Kristiansund BK 2W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Jun 2021, ended 0–2 with Kristiansund BK winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
ODD Ballklubb goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Kristiansund BK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 63% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — ODD Ballklubb 58% and Kristiansund BK 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (ODD Ballklubb 64% | Kristiansund BK 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects ODD Ballklubb 2.11 xG and Kristiansund BK 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: ODD Ballklubb attack 1.044 / defence 1.469 | Kristiansund BK attack 0.738 / defence 1.111. League average goals — home 1.816 / away 1.211. Data: 55 ODD Ballklubb games / 55 Kristiansund BK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 54% | Draw 24% | Kristiansund BK 22%. Fair-value odds: ODD Ballklubb 1.85 | Draw 4.17 | Kristiansund BK 4.55. ODD Ballklubb hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.42. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.42 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (2.11 / 1.31) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates ODD Ballklubb as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Kristiansund BK (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on ODD Ballklubb if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.42 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: ODD Ballklubb 80% | Kristiansund BK 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: ODD Ballklubb vs Kristiansund BK | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Skagerak Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Nov 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 54% | Draw 24% | Kristiansund BK 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 66% | xG ODD Ballklubb 2.11 / Kristiansund BK 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: ODD Ballklubb attack 1.044 / def 1.469 | Kristiansund BK attack 0.738 / def 1.111 | league avg home 1.816 / away 1.211 • Poisson stance: ODD Ballklubb (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.11
ODD Ballklubb xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Kristiansund BK xG
66%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does ODD Ballklubb vs Kristiansund BK kick off?
ODD Ballklubb vs Kristiansund BK kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 7 November 2021 at Skagerak Arena.
What was the final score in ODD Ballklubb vs Kristiansund BK?
ODD Ballklubb 2 - 4 Kristiansund BK.
Where is ODD Ballklubb vs Kristiansund BK being played?
The match is being played at Skagerak Arena.
What competition is ODD Ballklubb vs Kristiansund BK part of?
ODD Ballklubb vs Kristiansund BK is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win ODD Ballklubb vs Kristiansund BK?
Our statistical model gives ODD Ballklubb a 54% chance of winning, Kristiansund BK a 22% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making ODD Ballklubb the favourite.
Will both teams score in ODD Ballklubb vs Kristiansund BK?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both ODD Ballklubb and Kristiansund BK will score (BTTS).
Will ODD Ballklubb vs Kristiansund BK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between ODD Ballklubb and Kristiansund BK?
Record (3 meetings): ODD Ballklubb 1W | Draws 0 | Kristiansund BK 2W.
What form are ODD Ballklubb and Kristiansund BK in?
ODD Ballklubb (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-D-L-D. Kristiansund BK (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
ODD Ballklubb's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Kristiansund BK's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.11. Flip it around — Kristiansund BK's attack (0.74x) against ODD Ballklubb's defence (1.47x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
ODD Ballklubb Win
54%
1.86
24%
4.10
22%
4.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
2 – 0
7.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.11
ODD Ballklubb xG
Total xG
3.42
1.31
Kristiansund BK xG
1.86
54%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
4.60
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.94
Clean Sheet
27%
3.72
12%
8.22
Win to Nil
14%
6.92
3%
37.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 4.3 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 9.0 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.5 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 6.7 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for ODD Ballklubb vs Kristiansund BK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are ODD Ballklubb and Kristiansund BK expected to score?
The model projects 2.11 expected goals for ODD Ballklubb and 1.31 for Kristiansund BK, a combined total of 3.42.
How confident is the prediction model for ODD Ballklubb vs Kristiansund BK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
ODD Ballklubb come into this having played 55 games, going 20W 12D 23L for 1.31 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-L-D. The sample for ODD Ballklubb is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Kristiansund BK sit at 1.60 PPG from 55 outings (24W 16D 15L), a run that reads W-D-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Kristiansund BK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.31 PPG for ODD Ballklubb against 1.60 for Kristiansund BK. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
ODD Ballklubb's home form reads 12W 6D 9L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.56 PPG return.
Away from home, Kristiansund BK have taken 1.26 points per game from 27 outings (8W 10D 9L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
ODD Ballklubb are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; Kristiansund BK are on 1.60 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kristiansund BK in 64%.
Last 55 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
ODD Ballklubb
Blended
Kristiansund BK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are ODD Ballklubb and Kristiansund BK in coming into this match?
ODD Ballklubb have gone 20W 12D 23L in their last 55 games (1.31 PPG), while Kristiansund BK have gone 24W 16D 15L in their last 55 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — ODD Ballklubb at home or Kristiansund BK away?
ODD Ballklubb's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — ODD Ballklubb at home: 1.56 PPG; Kristiansund BK away: 1.26 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 September 2024, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 4 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, ODD Ballklubb have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Kristiansund BK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
ODD Ballklubb
4
Draws
3
Kristiansund BK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between ODD Ballklubb and Kristiansund BK?
From 8 meetings on record, ODD Ballklubb have won 1, Kristiansund BK have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did ODD Ballklubb and Kristiansund BK last play each other?
They last met on 22 September 2024, when Kristiansund BK 0-0 ODD Ballklubb.
Who has won more matches between ODD Ballklubb and Kristiansund BK?
Kristiansund BK have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
ODD Ballklubb are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Kristiansund BK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 70% for ODD Ballklubb, 63% for Kristiansund BK — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for ODD Ballklubb and 63% for Kristiansund BK. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Kristiansund BK in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = ODD Ballklubb home games / Kristiansund BK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when ODD Ballklubb play Kristiansund BK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of ODD Ballklubb's games and 63% of Kristiansund BK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is ODD Ballklubb vs Kristiansund BK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of ODD Ballklubb's matches and 63% of Kristiansund BK's.
Do ODD Ballklubb and Kristiansund BK tend to score early?
ODD Ballklubb have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Kristiansund BK in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Kristiansund BK cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over ODD Ballklubb.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kristiansund BK beat ODD Ballklubb 2-4 at Skagerak Arena, Regular Season - 26, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting ODD Ballklubb 2.11 xG and Kristiansund BK 1.31 xG, a combined 3.42. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Kristiansund BK outscored their 1.31 projection by 2.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ODD Ballklubb attack 1.04 / defence 1.47 against Kristiansund BK attack 0.74 / defence 1.11, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it ODD Ballklubb 54% | Draw 24% | Kristiansund BK 22%, with ODD Ballklubb to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Kristiansund BK win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ODD Ballklubb 64%, Kristiansund BK 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
ODD Ballklubb's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Kristiansund BK's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — ODD Ballklubb 1.31 PPG, Kristiansund BK 1.60 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kristiansund BK win broke the near-deadlock. ODD Ballklubb (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.63 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Kristiansund BK (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.