Bodo/Glimt vs Kristiansund BK – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Bodo/Glimt at 62% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Bodo/Glimt face Kristiansund BK.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

Bodo/Glimt welcome Kristiansund BK to Aspmyra Stadion in Eliteserien (matchday 16). Kick-off is Saturday 17 July 2021 at 02:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Bodo/Glimt have gone 5W 2D 3L — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: D L W L D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

Bodo/Glimt at home: 7W 2D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 3.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Bodo/Glimt are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Kristiansund BK stand at 6W 2D 2L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

On the road, Kristiansund BK have gone 2W 5D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Bodo/Glimt) versus 2.00 (Kristiansund BK). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

H2H

The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 1 wins for Bodo/Glimt, 0 for Kristiansund BK and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 12 May 2021, ended Bodo/Glimt 2–0 Kristiansund BK — a Bodo/Glimt win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Bodo/Glimt in-play and half-time data (last 42 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 95% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; they lead at the break 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 55%.

Kristiansund BK in-play and half-time data (last 42 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bodo/Glimt 62% and Kristiansund BK 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Bodo/Glimt 76% | Kristiansund BK 57%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Bodo/Glimt 1.94 xG and Kristiansund BK 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.429 / defence 1.002 | Kristiansund BK attack 0.726 / defence 0.814. League average goals — home 1.668 / away 1.116. Bodo/Glimt carry an above-average attack rating of 1.429 — their 1.94 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Kristiansund BK's attack rating of 0.726 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.81. Data: built from Bodo/Glimt's last 43 games and Kristiansund BK's last 42.

Result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 62% | Draw 25% | Kristiansund BK 13%. Fair-value odds: Bodo/Glimt 1.61 | Draw 4.06 | Kristiansund BK 7.59. The model has a clear lean to Bodo/Glimt (62%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Bodo/Glimt at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 2.75 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Bodo/Glimt's last 10 home games and Kristiansund BK's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Bodo/Glimt 50% (last 10 home games) | Kristiansund BK 50% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights