Bodo/Glimt vs Kristiansund BK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bodo/Glimt at 62%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bodo/Glimt vs Kristiansund BK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 16 as Bodo/Glimt welcome Kristiansund BK to Aspmyra Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 17 July 2021 at 01:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Bodo/Glimt have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: D L W L D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Bodo/Glimt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bodo/Glimt at Aspmyra Stadion this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 3.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Bodo/Glimt are significantly better at Aspmyra Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kristiansund BK stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Kristiansund BK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Kristiansund BK have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Bodo/Glimt) versus 2.00 (Kristiansund BK). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Bodo/Glimt, 0 for Kristiansund BK and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 12 May 2021, ended 2–0 with Bodo/Glimt winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Bodo/Glimt in-play and half-time data (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 95% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; they lead at the break 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 55%.
Kristiansund BK in-play and half-time data (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bodo/Glimt 62% and Kristiansund BK 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Bodo/Glimt 76% | Kristiansund BK 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bodo/Glimt 1.94 xG and Kristiansund BK 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.429 / defence 1.002 | Kristiansund BK attack 0.726 / defence 0.814. League average goals — home 1.668 / away 1.116. Bodo/Glimt carry an above-average attack strength of 1.429 — their λ of 1.94 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 43 Bodo/Glimt games / 42 Kristiansund BK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 62% | Draw 25% | Kristiansund BK 13%. Fair-value odds: Bodo/Glimt 1.61 | Draw 4.00 | Kristiansund BK 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Bodo/Glimt (62%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bodo/Glimt at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.75 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: Bodo/Glimt 50% | Kristiansund BK 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bodo/Glimt vs Kristiansund BK | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Aspmyra Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Jul 2021, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 62% | Draw 25% | Kristiansund BK 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 49% | xG Bodo/Glimt 1.94 / Kristiansund BK 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.429 / def 1.002 | Kristiansund BK attack 0.726 / def 0.814 | league avg home 1.668 / away 1.116 • Poisson stance: Bodo/Glimt (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.94
Bodo/Glimt xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Kristiansund BK xG
49%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bodo/Glimt vs Kristiansund BK kick off?
Bodo/Glimt vs Kristiansund BK kicked off at 01:00 on Saturday 17 July 2021 at Aspmyra Stadion.
Where is Bodo/Glimt vs Kristiansund BK being played?
The match is being played at Aspmyra Stadion.
What competition is Bodo/Glimt vs Kristiansund BK part of?
Bodo/Glimt vs Kristiansund BK is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Bodo/Glimt vs Kristiansund BK?
Our statistical model gives Bodo/Glimt a 62% chance of winning, Kristiansund BK a 13% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Bodo/Glimt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bodo/Glimt vs Kristiansund BK?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Bodo/Glimt and Kristiansund BK will score (BTTS).
Will Bodo/Glimt vs Kristiansund BK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and Kristiansund BK?
Record (2 meetings): Bodo/Glimt 2W | Draws 0 | Kristiansund BK 0W.
What form are Bodo/Glimt and Kristiansund BK in?
Bodo/Glimt (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-W-L-D. Kristiansund BK (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Bodo/Glimt's attacking strength (1.43x league average) is weighed against Kristiansund BK's defensive record (0.81x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.94. The same calculation in reverse, Kristiansund BK's attack versus Bodo/Glimt's defence, projects 0.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 12.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (11.4%), 1-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodo/Glimt Win
62%
1.61
25%
4.06
13%
7.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.0%
Home win
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.94
Bodo/Glimt xG
Total xG
2.75
0.81
Kristiansund BK xG
1.61
62%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
7.59
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
44%
2.25
14%
6.97
Win to Nil
28%
3.62
2%
52.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.4 | 10.0 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.0 | 9.7 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.8 | 6.3 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.8 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bodo/Glimt vs Kristiansund BK?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Bodo/Glimt and Kristiansund BK expected to score?
The model projects 1.94 expected goals for Bodo/Glimt and 0.81 for Kristiansund BK, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Bodo/Glimt vs Kristiansund BK?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bodo/Glimt come into this having played 42 games, going 32W 6D 4L for 2.43 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L-D. The sample for Bodo/Glimt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Kristiansund BK sit at 1.62 PPG from 42 outings (18W 14D 10L), a run that reads L-D-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for Kristiansund BK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bodo/Glimt carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.81 PPG clear of Kristiansund BK — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Bodo/Glimt's home form reads 18W 2D 1L across 21 games on their own ground, a 2.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Kristiansund BK have taken 1.43 points per game from 21 outings (7W 9D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bodo/Glimt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Bodo/Glimt are averaging 3.00 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Kristiansund BK are on 1.62 scored and 1.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bodo/Glimt have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Kristiansund BK in 67%.
Last 42 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bodo/Glimt
Blended
Kristiansund BK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bodo/Glimt and Kristiansund BK in coming into this match?
Bodo/Glimt have gone 32W 6D 4L in their last 42 games (2.43 PPG), while Kristiansund BK have gone 18W 14D 10L in their last 42 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bodo/Glimt at home or Kristiansund BK away?
Bodo/Glimt's home record (2.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bodo/Glimt at home: 2.67 PPG; Kristiansund BK away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Bodo/Glimt or Kristiansund BK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bodo/Glimt have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Kristiansund BK in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bodo/Glimt and Kristiansund BK runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Bodo/Glimt have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Sep 2025, when Bodo/Glimt won 7-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bodo/Glimt's record when hosting Kristiansund BK specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
9
Bodo/Glimt
1
Draws
0
Kristiansund BK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and Kristiansund BK?
From 10 meetings on record, Bodo/Glimt have won 9, Kristiansund BK have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bodo/Glimt and Kristiansund BK last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Kristiansund BK 0-3 Bodo/Glimt.
Who has won more matches between Bodo/Glimt and Kristiansund BK?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 95% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 76% of the time.
Kristiansund BK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 24% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bodo/Glimt 52%, Kristiansund BK 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 76% for Bodo/Glimt and 57% for Kristiansund BK. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 57% and 19% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bodo/Glimt keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bodo/Glimt home games / Kristiansund BK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bodo/Glimt play Kristiansund BK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Bodo/Glimt's games and 67% of Kristiansund BK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bodo/Glimt vs Kristiansund BK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 76% of Bodo/Glimt's matches and 57% of Kristiansund BK's.
Do Bodo/Glimt and Kristiansund BK tend to score early?
Bodo/Glimt have had a goal before half-time in 95% of their recent matches, Kristiansund BK in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Bodo/Glimt's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Aspmyra Stadion, Regular Season - 16, as Bodo/Glimt and Kristiansund BK drew 0-0 in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bodo/Glimt 1.94 xG and Kristiansund BK 0.81 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Bodo/Glimt fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Kristiansund BK landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bodo/Glimt attack 1.43 / defence 1.00 against Kristiansund BK attack 0.73 / defence 0.81, drawn from 43/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bodo/Glimt 62% | Draw 25% | Kristiansund BK 13%, with Bodo/Glimt to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bodo/Glimt 76%, Kristiansund BK 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Kristiansund BK's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 2.43 PPG against 1.62. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Bodo/Glimt (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 3.48 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line. Kristiansund BK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.