Molde vs Mjondalen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Molde (69%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Molde face Mjondalen.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Molde host Mjondalen at Aker Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 17 July 2021 at 01:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Molde stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Molde, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Aker Stadion, Molde have gone 9W 0D 1L this season (10 games, 2.70 PPG). They are averaging 3.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Aker Stadion. Their home PPG of 2.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.20 — Molde are significantly better at Aker Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Mjondalen have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Mjondalen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mjondalen's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, Molde have the edge — a 1.20 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Molde, 0 for Mjondalen and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 May 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Molde in-play and half-time data (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 85% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
Mjondalen in-play and half-time data (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Molde 63% versus Mjondalen 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Molde 85% | Mjondalen 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Molde 2.33 xG and Mjondalen 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Molde attack 1.531 / defence 0.804 | Mjondalen attack 0.963 / defence 0.910. League average goals — home 1.668 / away 1.116. Molde carry an above-average attack strength of 1.531 — their λ of 2.33 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 43 Molde games / 40 Mjondalen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Molde 69% | Draw 21% | Mjondalen 11%. Fair-value odds: Molde 1.45 | Draw 4.76 | Mjondalen 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Molde (69%) — a 58pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.19. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.19 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Molde at 69% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.19 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Molde 50% | Mjondalen 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Molde vs Mjondalen | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Aker Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Jul 2021, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Molde 69% | Draw 21% | Mjondalen 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 54% | xG Molde 2.33 / Mjondalen 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Molde attack 1.531 / def 0.804 | Mjondalen attack 0.963 / def 0.910 | league avg home 1.668 / away 1.116 • Poisson stance: Molde (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.33
Molde xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Mjondalen xG
54%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Molde vs Mjondalen kick off?
Molde vs Mjondalen kicked off at 01:00 on Saturday 17 July 2021 at Aker Stadion.
Where is Molde vs Mjondalen being played?
The match is being played at Aker Stadion.
What competition is Molde vs Mjondalen part of?
Molde vs Mjondalen is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Molde vs Mjondalen?
Our statistical model gives Molde a 69% chance of winning, Mjondalen a 11% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Molde the favourite.
Will both teams score in Molde vs Mjondalen?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Molde and Mjondalen will score (BTTS).
Will Molde vs Mjondalen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Molde and Mjondalen?
Record (3 meetings): Molde 2W | Draws 1 | Mjondalen 0W.
What form are Molde and Mjondalen in?
Molde (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. Mjondalen (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Molde's attacking strength (1.53x league average) is weighed against Mjondalen's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.33. The same calculation in reverse, Mjondalen's attack versus Molde's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 11.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Molde Win
69%
1.46
21%
4.88
11%
9.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.33
Molde xG
Total xG
3.19
0.86
Mjondalen xG
1.46
69%
Home win
4.88
21%
Draw
9.20
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
10%
10.23
Win to Nil
29%
3.46
1%
94.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.6 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.1 | 9.6 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 8.6 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 5.0 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Molde vs Mjondalen?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Molde and Mjondalen expected to score?
The model projects 2.33 expected goals for Molde and 0.86 for Mjondalen, a combined total of 3.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Molde vs Mjondalen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 41 outings, Molde have picked up 2.07 PPG on a 27W 4D 10L record — W-W-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Molde is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mjondalen's form line: 11W 7D 23L from 41 games, 0.98 PPG, last five D-D-L-L-W. The sample for Mjondalen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Molde are the form team by 1.09 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Mjondalen.
Venue Form
On home soil, Molde have posted 2.45 PPG from 20 outings (16W 1D 3L).
On the road, Mjondalen have gone 3W 4D 13L from 20 away games — 0.65 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Molde come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Molde are averaging 2.56 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Mjondalen are on 1.00 scored and 1.41 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Molde have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 41 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Molde
Blended
Mjondalen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Molde and Mjondalen in coming into this match?
Molde have gone 27W 4D 10L in their last 41 games (2.07 PPG), while Mjondalen have gone 11W 7D 23L in their last 41 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Molde at home or Mjondalen away?
Molde's home record (2.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Molde at home: 2.45 PPG; Mjondalen away: 0.65 PPG.
Have Molde or Mjondalen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Molde have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Mjondalen in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 September 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Sep 2021, when Molde won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Molde's record when hosting Mjondalen specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Molde
1
Draws
0
Mjondalen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Molde and Mjondalen?
From 4 meetings on record, Molde have won 3, Mjondalen have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Molde and Mjondalen last play each other?
They last met on 12 September 2021, when Molde 4-0 Mjondalen.
Who has won more matches between Molde and Mjondalen?
Molde have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Molde are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 65% of the time.
Mjondalen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Molde 55%, Mjondalen 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 85% for Molde and 45% for Mjondalen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 55% and 15% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Molde keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Mjondalen in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Molde home games / Mjondalen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Molde play Mjondalen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Molde's recent matches and 50% of Mjondalen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Molde vs Mjondalen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 85% of Molde's matches and 45% of Mjondalen's.
Do Molde and Mjondalen tend to score early?
Molde have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Mjondalen in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Molde's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Aker Stadion, Regular Season - 16, as Molde and Mjondalen drew 0-0 in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Molde 2.33 xG and Mjondalen 0.86 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Molde fell 2.3 short of their projected output. Mjondalen landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Molde attack 1.53 / defence 0.80 against Mjondalen attack 0.96 / defence 0.91, drawn from 43/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Molde 69% | Draw 21% | Mjondalen 11%, with Molde to win its most likely call at 69%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Molde 85%, Mjondalen 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Molde's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Mjondalen's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Molde arrived the stronger side — 2.07 PPG against 0.98. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Molde (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.95 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.85 average — tighter than their form line. Mjondalen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.70 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.