Waalwijk 2-0 Almere City FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Waalwijk at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Waalwijk vs Almere City FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Mandemakers Stadion plays host to Waalwijk versus Almere City FC in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off: Sunday 3 November 2024 at 15:45 UTC.
Current Form
Waalwijk's overall Eredivisie record this term: 0W 1D 9L from 10 games (0.10 PPG). Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.80 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Waalwijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Waalwijk have posted 1W 5D 4L at Mandemakers Stadion — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 0.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.10 — Waalwijk are significantly better at Mandemakers Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Almere City FC have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L L L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Almere City FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Almere City FC's away record: 0W 6D 4L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
On a straight form reading, Almere City FC are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (0.60 vs 0.10). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Waalwijk 0W, Almere City FC 1W, 1D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.5 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Apr 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Waalwijk — key trading statistics (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
Almere City FC — key trading statistics (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Waalwijk 57% versus Almere City FC 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Waalwijk 59% | Almere City FC 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Waalwijk 1.27 xG and Almere City FC 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waalwijk attack 0.769 / defence 1.249 | Almere City FC attack 0.745 / defence 0.982. League average goals — home 1.685 / away 1.255. Waalwijk's attack strength of 0.769 is below the league average — the 1.27 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 44 Waalwijk games / 44 Almere City FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Waalwijk 39% | Draw 27% | Almere City FC 34%. Fair-value odds: Waalwijk 2.56 | Draw 3.70 | Almere City FC 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Waalwijk are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Almere City FC (0.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Waalwijk if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.44 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. This conflicts with form data: Waalwijk 70% | Almere City FC 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Waalwijk vs Almere City FC | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Mandemakers Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Nov 2024, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Waalwijk 39% | Draw 27% | Almere City FC 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Waalwijk 1.27 / Almere City FC 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Waalwijk attack 0.769 / def 1.249 | Almere City FC attack 0.745 / def 0.982 | league avg home 1.685 / away 1.255 • Poisson stance: Waalwijk (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Waalwijk xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Almere City FC xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Waalwijk vs Almere City FC kick off?
Waalwijk vs Almere City FC kicked off at 15:45 on Sunday 3 November 2024 at Mandemakers Stadion.
What was the final score in Waalwijk vs Almere City FC?
Waalwijk 2 - 0 Almere City FC.
Where is Waalwijk vs Almere City FC being played?
The match is being played at Mandemakers Stadion.
What competition is Waalwijk vs Almere City FC part of?
Waalwijk vs Almere City FC is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Waalwijk vs Almere City FC?
Our statistical model gives Waalwijk a 39% chance of winning, Almere City FC a 34% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Waalwijk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Waalwijk vs Almere City FC?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Waalwijk and Almere City FC will score (BTTS).
Will Waalwijk vs Almere City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and Almere City FC?
Record (2 meetings): Waalwijk 0W | Draws 1 | Almere City FC 1W.
What form are Waalwijk and Almere City FC in?
Waalwijk (all comps): 0W-1D-9L in 10 | 0.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.80 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Almere City FC (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-D-W.
What do the betting odds say about Waalwijk vs Almere City FC?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Waalwijk's attack at 0.77x the league average against Almere City FC's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.27 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Almere City FC's attack (0.74x) against Waalwijk's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Waalwijk Win
39%
2.57
27%
3.66
34%
2.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Waalwijk xG
Total xG
2.44
1.17
Almere City FC xG
2.57
39%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
2.96
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
31%
3.22
28%
3.57
Win to Nil
12%
8.28
9%
10.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 10.2 | 5.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 12.9 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.2 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Waalwijk vs Almere City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Waalwijk and Almere City FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Waalwijk and 1.17 for Almere City FC, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Waalwijk vs Almere City FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 44 outings, Waalwijk have picked up 0.68 PPG on a 7W 9D 28L record — L-L-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Waalwijk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Almere City FC's form line: 8W 16D 20L from 44 games, 0.91 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-W. The sample for Almere City FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.68 PPG for Waalwijk against 0.91 for Almere City FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Waalwijk have posted 0.90 PPG from 21 outings (4W 7D 10L).
On the road, Almere City FC have gone 4W 8D 9L from 21 away games — 0.95 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Waalwijk are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.91 conceded per game recently; Almere City FC are on 0.86 scored and 1.82 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Waalwijk
Blended
Almere City FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Waalwijk and Almere City FC in coming into this match?
Waalwijk have gone 7W 9D 28L in their last 44 games (0.68 PPG), while Almere City FC have gone 8W 16D 20L in their last 44 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Waalwijk at home or Almere City FC away?
Almere City FC's away record (0.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Waalwijk at home: 0.90 PPG; Almere City FC away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 17 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Waalwijk won 1-4 on 2 Feb 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Waalwijk have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Almere City FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Waalwijk
2
Draws
1
Almere City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and Almere City FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Waalwijk have won 3, Almere City FC have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Waalwijk and Almere City FC last play each other?
They last met on 17 March 2026, when Almere City FC 2-2 Waalwijk.
Who has won more matches between Waalwijk and Almere City FC?
Waalwijk have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Waalwijk 62%, Almere City FC 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Waalwijk) and 48% (Almere City FC).
On the defensive side: Waalwijk have failed to score in 29% of games; Almere City FC in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Waalwijk home games / Almere City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Waalwijk play Almere City FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Waalwijk's recent matches and 48% of Almere City FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Waalwijk vs Almere City FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Waalwijk's recent games and 48% of Almere City FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Waalwijk and Almere City FC tend to score early?
Waalwijk have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Almere City FC in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Waalwijk cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Almere City FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Waalwijk beat Almere City FC 2-0 at Mandemakers Stadion, Regular Season - 11, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Waalwijk 1.27 xG and Almere City FC 1.17 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Almere City FC landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waalwijk attack 0.77 / defence 1.25 against Almere City FC attack 0.74 / defence 0.98, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Waalwijk 39% | Draw 27% | Almere City FC 34%, with Waalwijk to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waalwijk 59%, Almere City FC 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Waalwijk's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Almere City FC's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Waalwijk 0.68 PPG, Almere City FC 0.91 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Waalwijk win broke the near-deadlock. Waalwijk (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line. Almere City FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.81 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.