PEC Zwolle 1-0 Vitesse – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates PEC Zwolle at 51% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this PEC Zwolle vs Vitesse encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

PEC Zwolle welcome Vitesse to MAC³PARK Stadion in Eredivisie (matchday 19). Kick-off is Friday 26 January 2024 at 19:00 UK time.

Form Guide

PEC Zwolle — last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W L D D D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

PEC Zwolle's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Vitesse stand at 1W 2D 7L — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.80 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

On the road, Vitesse have gone 3W 0D 7L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game.

On current form, PEC Zwolle have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.30 vs 0.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, PEC Zwolle have won 0, Vitesse 2, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.3 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 27 Oct 2023, ended PEC Zwolle 1–1 Vitesse — a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading Patterns

PEC Zwolle in-play and half-time data (last 52 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.

Vitesse in-play and half-time data (last 52 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 38% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PEC Zwolle 60% versus Vitesse 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PEC Zwolle 67% | Vitesse 54%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects PEC Zwolle 1.94 xG and Vitesse 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PEC Zwolle attack 0.779 / defence 1.249 | Vitesse attack 0.699 / defence 1.540. League average goals — home 1.618 / away 1.480. PEC Zwolle's attack rating of 0.779 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.94. Vitesse's defence rating of 1.540 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing PEC Zwolle's projected output up. Vitesse's attack rating of 0.699 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.29. PEC Zwolle's defence rating of 1.249 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Vitesse's projected output up. Data: built from PEC Zwolle's last 18 games and Vitesse's last 52.

Result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 51% | Draw 26% | Vitesse 23%. Fair-value odds: PEC Zwolle 1.98 | Draw 3.84 | Vitesse 4.27. PEC Zwolle hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS Yes probability 64% | Total xG 3.23. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.23 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% — both xG figures (1.94 / 1.29) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates PEC Zwolle as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on PEC Zwolle offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.23 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (PEC Zwolle's last 10 home games and Vitesse's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.

Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: PEC Zwolle 60% (last 10 home games) | Vitesse 40% (last 10 away games).

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