PEC Zwolle 3-1 Heracles – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Heracles at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this PEC Zwolle vs Heracles encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Regular Season - 31 as PEC Zwolle welcome Heracles to MAC³PARK Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 28 April 2024 at 11:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, PEC Zwolle have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters this season, PEC Zwolle have posted 3W 2D 5L at MAC³PARK Stadion — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — PEC Zwolle are significantly better at MAC³PARK Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Heracles stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Heracles away from home this season: 3W 0D 7L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Heracles — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, PEC Zwolle have won 3, Heracles 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 2.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 1 Oct 2023, ended 1–2 with Heracles winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
PEC Zwolle trading profile (68 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
Heracles trading profile (68 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PEC Zwolle 60% versus Heracles 52%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (PEC Zwolle 66% | Heracles 72%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PEC Zwolle 1.17 xG and Heracles 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PEC Zwolle attack 0.666 / defence 1.330 | Heracles attack 0.740 / defence 1.022. League average goals — home 1.720 / away 1.411. PEC Zwolle's attack strength of 0.666 is below the league average — the 1.17 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 30 PEC Zwolle games / 30 Heracles games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 29% | Draw 31% | Heracles 40%. Fair-value odds: PEC Zwolle 3.45 | Draw 3.23 | Heracles 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Heracles as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Heracles offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.56 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: PEC Zwolle 70% | Heracles 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PEC Zwolle vs Heracles | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: MAC³PARK Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Apr 2024, 11:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 29% | Draw 31% | Heracles 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 54% | xG PEC Zwolle 1.17 / Heracles 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: PEC Zwolle attack 0.666 / def 1.330 | Heracles attack 0.740 / def 1.022 | league avg home 1.720 / away 1.411 • Poisson stance: Heracles (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
PEC Zwolle xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Heracles xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PEC Zwolle vs Heracles kick off?
PEC Zwolle vs Heracles kicked off at 11:15 on Sunday 28 April 2024 at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What was the final score in PEC Zwolle vs Heracles?
PEC Zwolle 3 - 1 Heracles.
Where is PEC Zwolle vs Heracles being played?
The match is being played at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What competition is PEC Zwolle vs Heracles part of?
PEC Zwolle vs Heracles is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win PEC Zwolle vs Heracles?
Our statistical model gives PEC Zwolle a 29% chance of winning, Heracles a 40% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Heracles the favourite.
Will both teams score in PEC Zwolle vs Heracles?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both PEC Zwolle and Heracles will score (BTTS).
Will PEC Zwolle vs Heracles have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and Heracles?
Record (5 meetings): PEC Zwolle 3W | Draws 0 | Heracles 2W.
What form are PEC Zwolle and Heracles in?
PEC Zwolle (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-L-L-W-D. Heracles (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from PEC Zwolle's attack rating (0.67) and Heracles's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.17 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Heracles's attack versus PEC Zwolle's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.4%), 0-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Heracles Win
29%
3.40
31%
3.24
40%
2.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
PEC Zwolle xG
Total xG
2.56
1.39
Heracles xG
3.40
29%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
2.52
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
25%
4.01
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
7%
13.62
12%
8.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 10.7 | 7.5 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.6 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.4 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PEC Zwolle vs Heracles?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are PEC Zwolle and Heracles expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for PEC Zwolle and 1.39 for Heracles, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for PEC Zwolle vs Heracles?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
PEC Zwolle come into this having played 68 games, going 35W 12D 21L for 1.72 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-D.
On the other side, Heracles sit at 1.72 PPG from 68 outings (36W 9D 23L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: PEC Zwolle on 1.72 PPG, Heracles on 1.72. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
PEC Zwolle's home form reads 19W 5D 10L across 34 games on their own ground, a 1.82 PPG return.
Away from home, Heracles have taken 1.41 points per game from 34 outings (15W 3D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PEC Zwolle come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
PEC Zwolle are averaging 2.04 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Heracles are on 2.10 scored and 1.53 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: PEC Zwolle have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 68 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PEC Zwolle
Current Season
Heracles
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PEC Zwolle and Heracles in coming into this match?
PEC Zwolle have gone 35W 12D 21L in their last 68 games (1.72 PPG), while Heracles have gone 36W 9D 23L in their last 68 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PEC Zwolle at home or Heracles away?
PEC Zwolle's home record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PEC Zwolle at home: 1.82 PPG; Heracles away: 1.41 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between PEC Zwolle and Heracles runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Nov 2025, when Heracles won 8-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
PEC Zwolle's record when hosting Heracles specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
PEC Zwolle
0
Draws
4
Heracles
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and Heracles?
From 10 meetings on record, PEC Zwolle have won 6, Heracles have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did PEC Zwolle and Heracles last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when PEC Zwolle 1-0 Heracles.
Who has won more matches between PEC Zwolle and Heracles?
PEC Zwolle have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Heracles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PEC Zwolle 59%, Heracles 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for PEC Zwolle and 74% for Heracles. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Heracles in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PEC Zwolle home games / Heracles away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PEC Zwolle play Heracles?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of PEC Zwolle's recent matches and 50% of Heracles's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PEC Zwolle vs Heracles usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of PEC Zwolle's matches and 74% of Heracles's.
Do PEC Zwolle and Heracles tend to score early?
PEC Zwolle have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Heracles in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
PEC Zwolle cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Heracles.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PEC Zwolle beat Heracles 3-1 at MAC³PARK Stadion, Regular Season - 31, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PEC Zwolle 1.17 xG and Heracles 1.39 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. PEC Zwolle beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PEC Zwolle attack 0.67 / defence 1.33 against Heracles attack 0.74 / defence 1.02, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PEC Zwolle 29% | Draw 31% | Heracles 40%, with Heracles to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual PEC Zwolle win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PEC Zwolle 66%, Heracles 72%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Heracles's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — PEC Zwolle 1.72 PPG, Heracles 1.72 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the PEC Zwolle win broke the near-deadlock. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.15 average — above their attacking norm. Heracles (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.68 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.