PEC Zwolle 3-1 Heracles – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Heracles at 40% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this PEC Zwolle vs Heracles encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
PEC Zwolle welcome Heracles to MAC³PARK Stadion in Eredivisie (matchday 31). Kick-off is Sunday 28 April 2024 at 12:15 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, PEC Zwolle have gone 1W 3D 6L — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters, PEC Zwolle have posted 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — PEC Zwolle are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Heracles stand at 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Heracles away from home: 3W 0D 7L from their last 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Heracles — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 3 wins for PEC Zwolle, 2 for Heracles and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 2.8 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 1 Oct 2023, ended PEC Zwolle 1–2 Heracles — a Heracles win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 2.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
PEC Zwolle trading profile (last 68 games, 34 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
Heracles trading profile (last 68 games, 34 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 39%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PEC Zwolle 60% versus Heracles 52%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (PEC Zwolle 66% | Heracles 72%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PEC Zwolle 1.17 xG and Heracles 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PEC Zwolle attack 0.666 / defence 1.330 | Heracles attack 0.740 / defence 1.022. League average goals — home 1.720 / away 1.411. PEC Zwolle's attack rating of 0.666 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.17. Heracles's attack rating of 0.740 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.39. PEC Zwolle's defence rating of 1.330 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Heracles's projected output up. Data: built from PEC Zwolle's last 30 games and Heracles's last 30.
Result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 29% | Draw 31% | Heracles 40%. Fair-value odds: PEC Zwolle 3.40 | Draw 3.24 | Heracles 2.52. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Heracles as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Heracles offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.56 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 53% — low conviction — though recent form (PEC Zwolle's last 10 home games and Heracles's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches point the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: PEC Zwolle 70% (last 10 home games) | Heracles 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PEC Zwolle vs Heracles | Competition: Eredivisie, matchday 31 | Venue: MAC³PARK Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 28 April 2024 at 12:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 29% | Draw 31% | Heracles 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG PEC Zwolle 1.17 / Heracles 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: PEC Zwolle attack 0.666 / def 1.330 | Heracles attack 0.740 / def 1.022 | league avg home 1.720 / away 1.411 • Poisson stance: Heracles (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
PEC Zwolle xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Heracles xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ PEC Zwolle vs Heracles FAQs
What time does PEC Zwolle vs Heracles kick off?
PEC Zwolle vs Heracles kicked off at 12:15 UK time on Sunday 28 April 2024 at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What was the final score in PEC Zwolle vs Heracles?
PEC Zwolle 3 - 1 Heracles.
Where is PEC Zwolle vs Heracles being played?
The match is being played at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What competition is PEC Zwolle vs Heracles part of?
PEC Zwolle vs Heracles is a Eredivisie fixture (matchday 31) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win PEC Zwolle vs Heracles?
Our statistical model gives PEC Zwolle a 29% chance of winning, Heracles a 40% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Heracles the favourite.
Will both teams score in PEC Zwolle vs Heracles?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both PEC Zwolle and Heracles will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will PEC Zwolle vs Heracles have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from PEC Zwolle's attack rating (0.67) and Heracles's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.17 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Heracles's attack versus PEC Zwolle's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from PEC Zwolle's last 30 games and Heracles's last 30 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.4%), 0-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Heracles Win
29%
3.40
31%
3.24
40%
2.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
PEC Zwolle xG
Total xG
2.56
1.39
Heracles xG
3.40
29%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
2.52
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
25%
4.01
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
7%
13.62
12%
8.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 10.7 | 7.5 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.6 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.4 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ PEC Zwolle vs Heracles Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for PEC Zwolle vs Heracles?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are PEC Zwolle and Heracles expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for PEC Zwolle and 1.39 for Heracles, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for PEC Zwolle vs Heracles?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
PEC Zwolle come into this having played 68 games, going 35W 12D 21L for 1.72 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-D.
On the other side, Heracles sit at 1.72 PPG from 68 outings (36W 9D 23L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: PEC Zwolle on 1.72 PPG, Heracles on 1.72. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
PEC Zwolle's home form reads 19W 5D 10L across their last 34 home games, a 1.82 PPG return.
Away from home, Heracles have taken 1.41 points per game from their last 34 away games (15W 3D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PEC Zwolle come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
PEC Zwolle are averaging 2.04 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Heracles are on 2.10 scored and 1.53 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: PEC Zwolle have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 68 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PEC Zwolle
Current Season
Heracles
Current Season
PEC Zwolle (Home) vs Heracles (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
PEC Zwolle
Current Season
Heracles
Current Season
❓ PEC Zwolle vs Heracles Form FAQs
What form are PEC Zwolle and Heracles in coming into this match?
PEC Zwolle have gone 35W 12D 21L in their last 68 games (1.72 PPG), while Heracles have gone 36W 9D 23L in their last 68 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PEC Zwolle at home or Heracles away?
PEC Zwolle's home record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PEC Zwolle at home: 1.82 PPG; Heracles away: 1.41 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2021. They cover more than one competition — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie. The most recent was on 3 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 2 Nov 2025, when Heracles won Heracles 8-2 PEC Zwolle.
PEC Zwolle's record when hosting Heracles specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
PEC Zwolle
0
Draws
4
Heracles
Recent Meetings
❓ PEC Zwolle vs Heracles H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and Heracles?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, PEC Zwolle have won 6, Heracles have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did PEC Zwolle and Heracles last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 May 2026: PEC Zwolle 1-0 Heracles.
Who has won more matches between PEC Zwolle and Heracles?
PEC Zwolle have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Heracles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PEC Zwolle 59%, Heracles 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for PEC Zwolle and 74% for Heracles. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Heracles in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PEC Zwolle home games / Heracles away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ PEC Zwolle vs Heracles Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in PEC Zwolle and Heracles matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of PEC Zwolle's recent matches and 50% of Heracles's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are PEC Zwolle and Heracles matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of PEC Zwolle's matches and 74% of Heracles's.
Do PEC Zwolle and Heracles matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of PEC Zwolle's recent matches and 76% of Heracles's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
PEC Zwolle cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Heracles.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PEC Zwolle beat Heracles 3-1 at MAC³PARK Stadion, Regular Season - 31, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PEC Zwolle 1.17 xG and Heracles 1.39 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. PEC Zwolle beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PEC Zwolle attack 0.67 / defence 1.33 against Heracles attack 0.74 / defence 1.02, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PEC Zwolle 29% | Draw 31% | Heracles 40%, with Heracles to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual PEC Zwolle win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PEC Zwolle 66%, Heracles 72%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Heracles's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — PEC Zwolle 1.72 PPG, Heracles 1.72 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the PEC Zwolle win broke the near-deadlock. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.15 average — above their attacking norm. Heracles (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.68 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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