Heracles 0-2 Heerenveen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Heracles at 46%, yet the head-to-head data favours Heerenveen — this Heracles vs Heerenveen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Heracles and Heerenveen meet at Erve Asito in Eredivisie (matchday 30). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 14 April 2024 at 12:15 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Heracles have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
In front of their own supporters, Heracles have posted 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
Heerenveen (all games): 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L L D D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Heerenveen away from home: 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head sample leans to Heerenveen, who have 3 wins from 3 H2H matches compared to 0 for the hosts, with 0 draws. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 28 Oct 2023, ended Heracles 0–3 Heerenveen — a Heerenveen win.
Heerenveen have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading Data
Heracles goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 65 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 88% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 41%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
Heerenveen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 65 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Heracles 54% versus Heerenveen 54%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Heracles 72% | Heerenveen 65%). Note also that Heerenveen surrender HT leads in 32% of cases while Heracles recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 41% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Heracles 2.10 xG and Heerenveen 1.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Heracles attack 1.108 / defence 1.224 | Heerenveen attack 1.027 / defence 1.082. League average goals — home 1.756 / away 1.346. Heracles's defence rating of 1.224 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Heerenveen's projected output up. Data: built from Heracles's last 29 games and Heerenveen's last 63.
Result probabilities: Heracles 46% | Draw 24% | Heerenveen 30%. Fair-value odds: Heracles 2.17 | Draw 4.14 | Heerenveen 3.36. Heracles hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS Yes probability 73% | Total xG 3.80. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.80 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% — both xG figures (2.10 / 1.69) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Heracles at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Heracles if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.80 combined xG gives a 73% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Heracles's last 10 home games and Heerenveen's last 10 away games) averaging 3.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 73%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Heracles 50% (last 10 home games) | Heerenveen 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Heracles vs Heerenveen | Competition: Eredivisie, matchday 30 | Venue: Erve Asito • Kick-off: Sunday 14 April 2024 at 12:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Heracles 46% | Draw 24% | Heerenveen 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% (Under 27%) | BTTS Yes 73% (No 27%) | xG Heracles 2.10 / Heerenveen 1.69 • Poisson strength factors: Heracles attack 1.108 / def 1.224 | Heerenveen attack 1.027 / def 1.082 | league avg home 1.756 / away 1.346 • Poisson stance: Heracles (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.10
Heracles xG
Expected Goals
1.69
Heerenveen xG
73%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Heracles vs Heerenveen FAQs
What time does Heracles vs Heerenveen kick off?
Heracles vs Heerenveen kicked off at 12:15 UK time on Sunday 14 April 2024 at Erve Asito.
What was the final score in Heracles vs Heerenveen?
Heracles 0 - 2 Heerenveen.
Where is Heracles vs Heerenveen being played?
The match is being played at Erve Asito.
What competition is Heracles vs Heerenveen part of?
Heracles vs Heerenveen is a Eredivisie fixture (matchday 30) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Heracles vs Heerenveen?
Our statistical model gives Heracles a 46% chance of winning, Heerenveen a 30% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Heracles the favourite.
Will both teams score in Heracles vs Heerenveen?
Our model estimates a 73% probability that both Heracles and Heerenveen will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Heracles vs Heerenveen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Heracles's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against Heerenveen's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.10. Flip it around — Heerenveen's attack (1.03x) against Heracles's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.69.
These ratings are built from Heracles's last 29 games and Heerenveen's last 63 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 2-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Heracles Win
46%
2.17
24%
4.14
30%
3.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.0%
Draw
2 – 2
7.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.10
Heracles xG
Total xG
3.80
1.69
Heerenveen xG
2.17
46%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
3.36
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
53%
Over 3.5
1.89
47%
Under 3.5
2.13
33%
Over 4.5
3.03
67%
Under 4.5
1.49
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
73%
BTTS Yes
1.36
27%
BTTS No
3.74
Clean Sheet
18%
5.43
12%
8.21
Win to Nil
8%
11.79
4%
27.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 3.8 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 4.7 | 8.0 | 6.8 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 8.4 | 7.1 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 5.9 | 5.0 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Heracles vs Heerenveen Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Heracles vs Heerenveen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.0%.
How many goals are Heracles and Heerenveen expected to score?
The model projects 2.10 expected goals for Heracles and 1.69 for Heerenveen, a combined total of 3.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Heracles vs Heerenveen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 65 outings, Heracles have picked up 1.71 PPG on a 34W 9D 22L record — L-W-L-W-W across the most recent five.
Heerenveen's form line: 21W 16D 28L from 65 games, 1.22 PPG, last five L-L-D-D-L.
Put side by side, Heracles are the form team by 0.49 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Heerenveen.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Heracles have posted 2.06 PPG from their last 32 home games (20W 6D 6L).
On the road, Heerenveen have gone 9W 10D 13L from their last 32 away games — 1.16 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Heracles come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Heracles are averaging 2.09 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Heerenveen are on 1.43 scored and 1.72 conceded.
Last 65 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Heracles
Current Season
Heerenveen
Current Season
Heracles (Home) vs Heerenveen (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Heracles
Current Season
Heerenveen
Current Season
❓ Heracles vs Heerenveen Form FAQs
What form are Heracles and Heerenveen in coming into this match?
Heracles have gone 34W 9D 22L in their last 65 games (1.71 PPG), while Heerenveen have gone 21W 16D 28L in their last 65 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Heracles at home or Heerenveen away?
Heracles's home record (2.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Heracles at home: 2.06 PPG; Heerenveen away: 1.16 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 8 H2H matches between Heracles and Heerenveen, the earliest from December 2021. All of them came in Eredivisie. The most recent was on 5 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Heerenveen have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Heerenveen won Heerenveen 3-0 Heracles on 28 Oct 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Heracles have gone 1W 0D 3L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Heerenveen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Heracles
1
Draws
6
Heerenveen
Recent Meetings
❓ Heracles vs Heerenveen H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Heracles and Heerenveen?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Heracles have won 1, Heerenveen have won 6, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Heracles and Heerenveen last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 April 2026: Heerenveen 4-1 Heracles.
Who has won more matches between Heracles and Heerenveen?
Heerenveen have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Heracles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 64% of those situations.
Heerenveen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Heracles 56%, Heerenveen 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 72% for Heracles and 56% for Heerenveen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 53% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Heracles keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Heerenveen in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Heracles home games / Heerenveen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Heracles vs Heerenveen Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Heracles and Heerenveen matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Heracles's recent matches and 44% of Heerenveen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Heracles and Heerenveen matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of Heracles's matches and 56% of Heerenveen's.
Do Heracles and Heerenveen matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 88% of Heracles's recent matches and 66% of Heerenveen's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Heerenveen cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Heracles.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Heerenveen beat Heracles 0-2 at Erve Asito, Regular Season - 30, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Heracles 2.10 xG and Heerenveen 1.69 xG, a combined 3.80. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Heracles fell 2.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Heracles attack 1.11 / defence 1.22 against Heerenveen attack 1.03 / defence 1.08, drawn from 29/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Heracles 46% | Draw 24% | Heerenveen 30%, with Heracles to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Heerenveen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 53% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Heracles 72%, Heerenveen 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Heracles's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Heerenveen's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Heracles arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.22. Form was overturned, with Heerenveen winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Heracles (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.56 scoring average — below par going forward. Heerenveen (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.84 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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