PEC Zwolle 1-2 FC Volendam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates PEC Zwolle at 75% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this PEC Zwolle vs FC Volendam encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
PEC Zwolle host FC Volendam at MAC³PARK Stadion in Eredivisie (matchday 22). Kick-off is Saturday 7 February 2026 at 17:45 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, PEC Zwolle stand at 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
PEC Zwolle at home: 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Across their last 10 games, FC Volendam have recorded 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone.
When travelling, FC Volendam have posted 0W 2D 8L from their last 10 away outings — 0.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
On current form, PEC Zwolle have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, PEC Zwolle have won 1, FC Volendam 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.3 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 27 Sep 2025, ended PEC Zwolle 1–2 FC Volendam — a FC Volendam win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
PEC Zwolle in-play tendencies (last 55 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
FC Volendam in-play tendencies (last 55 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 89% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 39%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — PEC Zwolle 60% and FC Volendam 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PEC Zwolle 53% | FC Volendam 71%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: PEC Zwolle surrender their half-time lead 29% of the time, while FC Volendam have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 39% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PEC Zwolle 2.25 xG and FC Volendam 0.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PEC Zwolle attack 1.131 / defence 0.871 | FC Volendam attack 0.493 / defence 1.212. League average goals — home 1.645 / away 1.425. FC Volendam's defence rating of 1.212 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing PEC Zwolle's projected output up. FC Volendam's attack rating of 0.493 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.61. Data: built from PEC Zwolle's last 55 games and FC Volendam's last 21.
Result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 75% | Draw 17% | FC Volendam 9%. Fair-value odds: PEC Zwolle 1.34 | Draw 5.98 | FC Volendam 11.75. The model has a clear lean to PEC Zwolle (75%) — a 58pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 41% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS No at 59% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, PEC Zwolle are the pick at 75% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 2.87 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (PEC Zwolle's last 10 home games and FC Volendam's last 10 away games) averaging 2.7 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: PEC Zwolle 40% (last 10 home games) | FC Volendam 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PEC Zwolle vs FC Volendam | Competition: Eredivisie, matchday 22 | Venue: MAC³PARK Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 7 February 2026 at 17:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 75% | Draw 17% | FC Volendam 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 41% (No 59%) | xG PEC Zwolle 2.25 / FC Volendam 0.61 • Poisson strength factors: PEC Zwolle attack 1.131 / def 0.871 | FC Volendam attack 0.493 / def 1.212 | league avg home 1.645 / away 1.425 • Poisson stance: PEC Zwolle (75%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.25
PEC Zwolle xG
Expected Goals
0.61
FC Volendam xG
41%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ PEC Zwolle vs FC Volendam FAQs
What time does PEC Zwolle vs FC Volendam kick off?
PEC Zwolle vs FC Volendam kicked off at 17:45 UK time on Saturday 7 February 2026 at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What was the final score in PEC Zwolle vs FC Volendam?
PEC Zwolle 1 - 2 FC Volendam.
Where is PEC Zwolle vs FC Volendam being played?
The match is being played at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What competition is PEC Zwolle vs FC Volendam part of?
PEC Zwolle vs FC Volendam is a Eredivisie fixture (matchday 22) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win PEC Zwolle vs FC Volendam?
Our statistical model gives PEC Zwolle a 75% chance of winning, FC Volendam a 9% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making PEC Zwolle the favourite.
Will both teams score in PEC Zwolle vs FC Volendam?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both PEC Zwolle and FC Volendam will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (59%).
Will PEC Zwolle vs FC Volendam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates PEC Zwolle's attack at 1.13x the league average against FC Volendam's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 2.25 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC Volendam's attack versus PEC Zwolle's defence, projects 0.61 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from PEC Zwolle's last 55 games and FC Volendam's last 21 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.8%), 3-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PEC Zwolle Win
75%
1.34
17%
5.98
9%
11.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
3 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.25
PEC Zwolle xG
Total xG
2.87
0.61
FC Volendam xG
1.34
75%
Home win
5.98
17%
Draw
11.75
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.44
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
54%
1.84
10%
9.53
Win to Nil
41%
2.47
1%
111.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 12.8 | 7.9 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.5 | 8.8 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 10.9 | 6.6 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 6.1 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ PEC Zwolle vs FC Volendam Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for PEC Zwolle vs FC Volendam?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are PEC Zwolle and FC Volendam expected to score?
The model projects 2.25 expected goals for PEC Zwolle and 0.61 for FC Volendam, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for PEC Zwolle vs FC Volendam?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 75%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 55 outings, PEC Zwolle have picked up 1.22 PPG on a 17W 16D 22L record — L-D-W-L-W across the most recent five.
FC Volendam's form line: 29W 10D 16L from 55 games, 1.76 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-D.
Put side by side, FC Volendam are the form team by 0.54 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against PEC Zwolle.
Venue Form
On home soil, PEC Zwolle have posted 1.63 PPG from their last 27 home games (13W 5D 9L). That's noticeably better than their 1.22 PPG overall — PEC Zwolle are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, FC Volendam have gone 11W 6D 10L from their last 27 away games — 1.44 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
PEC Zwolle are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; FC Volendam are on 1.84 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: PEC Zwolle have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; FC Volendam in 64%.
Last 55 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PEC Zwolle
Blended
FC Volendam
Blended
PEC Zwolle (Home) vs FC Volendam (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
PEC Zwolle
Blended
FC Volendam
Blended
❓ PEC Zwolle vs FC Volendam Form FAQs
What form are PEC Zwolle and FC Volendam in coming into this match?
PEC Zwolle have gone 17W 16D 22L in their last 55 games (1.22 PPG), while FC Volendam have gone 29W 10D 16L in their last 55 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PEC Zwolle at home or FC Volendam away?
PEC Zwolle's home record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PEC Zwolle at home: 1.63 PPG; FC Volendam away: 1.44 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from December 2023. All of them came in Eredivisie. The most recent was on 7 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
FC Volendam have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 2 Dec 2023, when PEC Zwolle won FC Volendam 0-5 PEC Zwolle.
PEC Zwolle's record when hosting FC Volendam specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
PEC Zwolle
1
Draws
2
FC Volendam
Recent Meetings
❓ PEC Zwolle vs FC Volendam H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and FC Volendam?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, PEC Zwolle have won 1, FC Volendam have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did PEC Zwolle and FC Volendam last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 February 2026: PEC Zwolle 1-2 FC Volendam.
Who has won more matches between PEC Zwolle and FC Volendam?
FC Volendam have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 31% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PEC Zwolle 48%, FC Volendam 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (PEC Zwolle) and 67% (FC Volendam). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Volendam in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PEC Zwolle home games / FC Volendam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ PEC Zwolle vs FC Volendam Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in PEC Zwolle and FC Volendam matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of PEC Zwolle's recent matches and 59% of FC Volendam's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are PEC Zwolle and FC Volendam matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 44% of PEC Zwolle's matches and 67% of FC Volendam's.
Do PEC Zwolle and FC Volendam matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of PEC Zwolle's recent matches and 89% of FC Volendam's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as FC Volendam defy the odds to beat PEC Zwolle 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Volendam beat PEC Zwolle 1-2 at MAC³PARK Stadion, Regular Season - 22, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PEC Zwolle 2.25 xG and FC Volendam 0.61 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. PEC Zwolle fell 1.3 short of their projected output. FC Volendam outscored their 0.61 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PEC Zwolle attack 1.13 / defence 0.87 against FC Volendam attack 0.49 / defence 1.21, drawn from 55/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PEC Zwolle 75% | Draw 17% | FC Volendam 9%, with PEC Zwolle to win its most likely call at 75%. Instead the game produced a FC Volendam win, an outcome the model had rated at just 9% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PEC Zwolle 53%, FC Volendam 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
FC Volendam's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Volendam arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.22. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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