Fortuna Sittard 2-2 Sparta Rotterdam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Sparta Rotterdam (42%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Fortuna Sittard face Sparta Rotterdam.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Sparta Rotterdam travel to Fortuna Sittard Stadion to take on Fortuna Sittard. The game is scheduled for Saturday 7 February 2026, 20:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Fortuna Sittard stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Fortuna Sittard, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Fortuna Sittard Stadion, Fortuna Sittard have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Fortuna Sittard are significantly better at Fortuna Sittard Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Sparta Rotterdam — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Sparta Rotterdam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sparta Rotterdam's away record: 6W 0D 4L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Sparta Rotterdam are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The previous 9 encounters between these sides heavily favour Sparta Rotterdam, who boast 5 victories compared to 1 for Fortuna Sittard.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Nov 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
It is worth noting that Sparta Rotterdam have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 9 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Profile
Fortuna Sittard in-play tendencies (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Sparta Rotterdam in-play tendencies (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fortuna Sittard 54% versus Sparta Rotterdam 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fortuna Sittard 54% | Sparta Rotterdam 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fortuna Sittard 1.38 xG and Sparta Rotterdam 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortuna Sittard attack 0.972 / defence 1.057 | Sparta Rotterdam attack 1.046 / defence 0.851. League average goals — home 1.672 / away 1.426. Data: 55 Fortuna Sittard games / 55 Sparta Rotterdam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fortuna Sittard 34% | Draw 24% | Sparta Rotterdam 42%. Fair-value odds: Fortuna Sittard 2.94 | Draw 4.17 | Sparta Rotterdam 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sparta Rotterdam as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sparta Rotterdam offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.96 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Fortuna Sittard 70% | Sparta Rotterdam 30%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fortuna Sittard vs Sparta Rotterdam | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Fortuna Sittard Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Feb 2026, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fortuna Sittard 34% | Draw 24% | Sparta Rotterdam 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 59% | xG Fortuna Sittard 1.38 / Sparta Rotterdam 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: Fortuna Sittard attack 0.972 / def 1.057 | Sparta Rotterdam attack 1.046 / def 0.851 | league avg home 1.672 / away 1.426 • Poisson stance: Sparta Rotterdam (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Fortuna Sittard xG
Expected Goals
1.58
Sparta Rotterdam xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fortuna Sittard vs Sparta Rotterdam kick off?
Fortuna Sittard vs Sparta Rotterdam kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 7 February 2026 at Fortuna Sittard Stadion.
What was the final score in Fortuna Sittard vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Fortuna Sittard 2 - 2 Sparta Rotterdam.
Where is Fortuna Sittard vs Sparta Rotterdam being played?
The match is being played at Fortuna Sittard Stadion.
What competition is Fortuna Sittard vs Sparta Rotterdam part of?
Fortuna Sittard vs Sparta Rotterdam is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Fortuna Sittard vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our statistical model gives Fortuna Sittard a 34% chance of winning, Sparta Rotterdam a 42% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Sparta Rotterdam the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fortuna Sittard vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Fortuna Sittard and Sparta Rotterdam will score (BTTS).
Will Fortuna Sittard vs Sparta Rotterdam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Sittard and Sparta Rotterdam?
Record (9 meetings): Fortuna Sittard 1W | Draws 3 | Sparta Rotterdam 5W.
What form are Fortuna Sittard and Sparta Rotterdam in?
Fortuna Sittard (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-L-W-L. Sparta Rotterdam (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Fortuna Sittard's attack at 0.97x the league average against Sparta Rotterdam's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 1.38 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sparta Rotterdam's attack versus Fortuna Sittard's defence, projects 1.58 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sparta Rotterdam Win
34%
2.98
24%
4.11
42%
2.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
0 – 1
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Fortuna Sittard xG
Total xG
2.96
1.58
Sparta Rotterdam xG
2.98
34%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
2.37
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.47
Clean Sheet
21%
4.84
25%
3.99
Win to Nil
7%
14.44
11%
9.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 8.2 | 6.4 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.3 | 8.9 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.8 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fortuna Sittard vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Fortuna Sittard and Sparta Rotterdam expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Fortuna Sittard and 1.58 for Sparta Rotterdam, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Fortuna Sittard vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 55 outings, Fortuna Sittard have picked up 1.20 PPG on a 18W 12D 25L record — W-D-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Fortuna Sittard is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sparta Rotterdam's form line: 20W 14D 21L from 55 games, 1.35 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W. The sample for Sparta Rotterdam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fortuna Sittard on 1.20 PPG, Sparta Rotterdam on 1.35. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Fortuna Sittard have posted 1.56 PPG from 27 outings (13W 3D 11L).
On the road, Sparta Rotterdam have gone 11W 6D 10L from 27 away games — 1.44 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Fortuna Sittard are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Sparta Rotterdam are on 1.20 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Last 55 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fortuna Sittard
Blended
Sparta Rotterdam
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fortuna Sittard and Sparta Rotterdam in coming into this match?
Fortuna Sittard have gone 18W 12D 25L in their last 55 games (1.20 PPG), while Sparta Rotterdam have gone 20W 14D 21L in their last 55 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fortuna Sittard at home or Sparta Rotterdam away?
Fortuna Sittard's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fortuna Sittard at home: 1.56 PPG; Sparta Rotterdam away: 1.44 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Fortuna Sittard and Sparta Rotterdam runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Mar 2024, when Sparta Rotterdam won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fortuna Sittard's record when hosting Sparta Rotterdam specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Fortuna Sittard
4
Draws
5
Sparta Rotterdam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Sittard and Sparta Rotterdam?
From 10 meetings on record, Fortuna Sittard have won 1, Sparta Rotterdam have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Fortuna Sittard and Sparta Rotterdam last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Fortuna Sittard 2-2 Sparta Rotterdam.
Who has won more matches between Fortuna Sittard and Sparta Rotterdam?
Sparta Rotterdam have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Fortuna Sittard are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Sparta Rotterdam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fortuna Sittard 41%, Sparta Rotterdam 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Fortuna Sittard) and 44% (Sparta Rotterdam).
On the defensive side: Fortuna Sittard keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Sparta Rotterdam in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fortuna Sittard home games / Sparta Rotterdam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fortuna Sittard play Sparta Rotterdam?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Fortuna Sittard's recent matches and 48% of Sparta Rotterdam's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fortuna Sittard vs Sparta Rotterdam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Fortuna Sittard's recent games and 44% of Sparta Rotterdam's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fortuna Sittard and Sparta Rotterdam tend to score early?
Fortuna Sittard have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Sparta Rotterdam in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fortuna Sittard and Sparta Rotterdam share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Fortuna Sittard Stadion, Regular Season - 22, as Fortuna Sittard and Sparta Rotterdam drew 2-2 in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortuna Sittard 1.38 xG and Sparta Rotterdam 1.58 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortuna Sittard attack 0.97 / defence 1.06 against Sparta Rotterdam attack 1.05 / defence 0.85, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fortuna Sittard 34% | Draw 24% | Sparta Rotterdam 42%, with Sparta Rotterdam to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortuna Sittard 54%, Sparta Rotterdam 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fortuna Sittard's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Sparta Rotterdam's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fortuna Sittard 1.20 PPG, Sparta Rotterdam 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.