NEC Nijmegen 0-3 AZ Alkmaar – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates NEC Nijmegen at 61% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as NEC Nijmegen face AZ Alkmaar.

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Analysis

AZ Alkmaar make the trip to Goffertstadion to face NEC Nijmegen in Eredivisie (matchday 31). The match kicks off on Sunday 28 April 2024 at 12:15 UK time.

Current Form

NEC Nijmegen's record over their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). Last five: L W D W D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

NEC Nijmegen at home: 6W 3D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

AZ Alkmaar (all games): 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 — 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W L L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.40. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

AZ Alkmaar away from home: 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.80 vs 2.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from NEC Nijmegen's last 10 home games and AZ Alkmaar's last 10 away games) — NEC Nijmegen have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, AZ Alkmaar in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, AZ Alkmaar edge it 2 wins to 1, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 6 Dec 2023, ended NEC Nijmegen 2–1 AZ Alkmaar — a NEC Nijmegen win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 2.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

NEC Nijmegen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 64 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

AZ Alkmaar goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 64 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 77% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — NEC Nijmegen 59% versus AZ Alkmaar 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NEC Nijmegen 53% | AZ Alkmaar 62%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: NEC Nijmegen surrender their half-time lead 25% of the time, while AZ Alkmaar have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 31% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects NEC Nijmegen 2.22 xG and AZ Alkmaar 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NEC Nijmegen attack 1.183 / defence 0.821 | AZ Alkmaar attack 0.943 / defence 1.090. League average goals — home 1.720 / away 1.411. Data: built from NEC Nijmegen's last 64 games and AZ Alkmaar's last 64.

Result probabilities: NEC Nijmegen 61% | Draw 23% | AZ Alkmaar 16%. Fair-value odds: NEC Nijmegen 1.63 | Draw 4.42 | AZ Alkmaar 6.22. The model has a clear lean to NEC Nijmegen (61%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.31. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.31 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (2.22 / 1.09) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, NEC Nijmegen are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.31 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (NEC Nijmegen's last 10 home games and AZ Alkmaar's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: NEC Nijmegen 70% (last 10 home games) | AZ Alkmaar 60% (last 10 away games).

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