NAC Breda 1-0 FC Volendam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates NAC Breda at 49% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as NAC Breda face FC Volendam.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
NAC Breda welcome FC Volendam to Rat Verlegh Stadion in Eredivisie (matchday 24). Kick-off is Saturday 21 February 2026 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Guide
NAC Breda — last 10 games: 1W 4D 5L, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L D D L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
NAC Breda at home: 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, FC Volendam have recorded 3W 1D 6L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L D W W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone.
FC Volendam away from home: 1W 1D 8L from their last 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — NAC Breda at 0.70 PPG versus FC Volendam's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for NAC Breda, 2 for FC Volendam and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.3 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 8 Nov 2025, ended NAC Breda 1–2 FC Volendam — a FC Volendam win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
NAC Breda trading profile (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 64%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
FC Volendam trading profile (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 89% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 39%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — NAC Breda 56% and FC Volendam 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NAC Breda 51% | FC Volendam 72%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: NAC Breda surrender their half-time lead 64% of the time, while FC Volendam have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 39% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NAC Breda 1.50 xG and FC Volendam 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NAC Breda attack 0.807 / defence 1.147 | FC Volendam attack 0.618 / defence 1.136. League average goals — home 1.635 / away 1.414. FC Volendam's attack rating of 0.618 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.00. Data: built from NAC Breda's last 57 games and FC Volendam's last 23.
Result probabilities: NAC Breda 49% | Draw 26% | FC Volendam 25%. Fair-value odds: NAC Breda 2.05 | Draw 3.85 | FC Volendam 3.95. NAC Breda hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is NAC Breda at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on NAC Breda offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.50 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 54% — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: NAC Breda 60% (last 10 home games) | FC Volendam 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NAC Breda vs FC Volendam | Competition: Eredivisie, matchday 24 | Venue: Rat Verlegh Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 21 February 2026 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NAC Breda 49% | Draw 26% | FC Volendam 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG NAC Breda 1.50 / FC Volendam 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: NAC Breda attack 0.807 / def 1.147 | FC Volendam attack 0.618 / def 1.136 | league avg home 1.635 / away 1.414 • Poisson stance: NAC Breda (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
NAC Breda xG
Expected Goals
1.00
FC Volendam xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ NAC Breda vs FC Volendam FAQs
What time does NAC Breda vs FC Volendam kick off?
NAC Breda vs FC Volendam kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Saturday 21 February 2026 at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What was the final score in NAC Breda vs FC Volendam?
NAC Breda 1 - 0 FC Volendam.
Where is NAC Breda vs FC Volendam being played?
The match is being played at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What competition is NAC Breda vs FC Volendam part of?
NAC Breda vs FC Volendam is a Eredivisie fixture (matchday 24) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NAC Breda vs FC Volendam?
Our statistical model gives NAC Breda a 49% chance of winning, FC Volendam a 25% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making NAC Breda the favourite.
Will both teams score in NAC Breda vs FC Volendam?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both NAC Breda and FC Volendam will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will NAC Breda vs FC Volendam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
NAC Breda's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against FC Volendam's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.50. The same calculation in reverse, FC Volendam's attack versus NAC Breda's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from NAC Breda's last 57 games and FC Volendam's last 23 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.7%), 0-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
NAC Breda Win
49%
2.05
26%
3.85
25%
3.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
NAC Breda xG
Total xG
2.50
1.00
FC Volendam xG
2.05
49%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
3.95
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
22%
4.47
Win to Nil
18%
5.60
6%
17.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 8.2 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 12.3 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ NAC Breda vs FC Volendam Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for NAC Breda vs FC Volendam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are NAC Breda and FC Volendam expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for NAC Breda and 1.00 for FC Volendam, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for NAC Breda vs FC Volendam?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
NAC Breda come into this having played 57 games, going 12W 16D 29L for 0.91 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-L-W.
On the other side, FC Volendam sit at 1.81 PPG from 57 outings (31W 10D 16L), a run that reads W-L-D-W-W across their last five.
FC Volendam carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.90 PPG clear of NAC Breda — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
NAC Breda's home form reads 8W 9D 11L across their last 28 home games, a 1.18 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Volendam have taken 1.50 points per game from their last 28 away games (12W 6D 10L).
The Goals Picture
NAC Breda are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; FC Volendam are on 1.84 scored and 1.39 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam in 65%.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NAC Breda
Blended
FC Volendam
Blended
NAC Breda (Home) vs FC Volendam (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
NAC Breda
Blended
FC Volendam
Blended
❓ NAC Breda vs FC Volendam Form FAQs
What form are NAC Breda and FC Volendam in coming into this match?
NAC Breda have gone 12W 16D 29L in their last 57 games (0.91 PPG), while FC Volendam have gone 31W 10D 16L in their last 57 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NAC Breda at home or FC Volendam away?
FC Volendam's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NAC Breda at home: 1.18 PPG; FC Volendam away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2021. They cover more than one competition — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie. The most recent was on 21 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
NAC Breda's record when hosting FC Volendam specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
NAC Breda
1
Draws
2
FC Volendam
Recent Meetings
❓ NAC Breda vs FC Volendam H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and FC Volendam?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, NAC Breda have won 1, FC Volendam have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did NAC Breda and FC Volendam last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 February 2026: NAC Breda 1-0 FC Volendam.
Who has won more matches between NAC Breda and FC Volendam?
FC Volendam have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 31% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — NAC Breda 64%, FC Volendam 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (NAC Breda) and 68% (FC Volendam). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Volendam in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NAC Breda home games / FC Volendam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ NAC Breda vs FC Volendam Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in NAC Breda and FC Volendam matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of NAC Breda's games and 61% of FC Volendam's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are NAC Breda and FC Volendam matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46% of NAC Breda's matches and 68% of FC Volendam's.
Do NAC Breda and FC Volendam matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of NAC Breda's recent matches and 89% of FC Volendam's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as NAC Breda edge out FC Volendam 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
NAC Breda beat FC Volendam 1-0 at Rat Verlegh Stadion, Regular Season - 24, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NAC Breda 1.50 xG and FC Volendam 1.00 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. FC Volendam landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NAC Breda attack 0.81 / defence 1.15 against FC Volendam attack 0.62 / defence 1.14, drawn from 57/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it NAC Breda 49% | Draw 26% | FC Volendam 25%, with NAC Breda to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NAC Breda 51%, FC Volendam 72%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NAC Breda's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
FC Volendam's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Volendam arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 0.91. Form was overturned, with NAC Breda winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. NAC Breda (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line. FC Volendam (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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