Ajax 1-1 NEC Nijmegen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ajax at 48% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Regular Season - 24 as Ajax welcome NEC Nijmegen to Johan Cruijff Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 21 February 2026 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ajax stand at 6W 4D 0L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D W D D W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ajax, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ajax's home record at Johan Cruijff Arena: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Eredivisie games this season, NEC Nijmegen have recorded 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for NEC Nijmegen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eredivisie this season, NEC Nijmegen have posted 4W 4D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.20 PPG (Ajax) versus 2.10 (NEC Nijmegen). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Ajax register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, NEC Nijmegen in 90% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Ajax: 5 wins from 9 previous clashes against 1 for NEC Nijmegen, with 3 draws across those contests.
The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.9 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 20 Dec 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Ajax and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 9 meetings, combined with an average of 2.9 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Ajax trading profile (57 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 92% of those occasions; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
NEC Nijmegen trading profile (57 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ajax 58% versus NEC Nijmegen 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ajax 58% | NEC Nijmegen 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ajax 2.04 xG and NEC Nijmegen 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ajax attack 1.151 / defence 0.844 | NEC Nijmegen attack 1.366 / defence 1.085. League average goals — home 1.630 / away 1.405. NEC Nijmegen have an above-average attack strength of 1.366 — the away xG of 1.62 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 57 Ajax games / 57 NEC Nijmegen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ajax 48% | Draw 21% | NEC Nijmegen 31%. Fair-value odds: Ajax 2.08 | Draw 4.76 | NEC Nijmegen 3.23. Ajax hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.66. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.66 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (2.04 / 1.62) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ajax as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.66 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 71% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 70% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Ajax 60% | NEC Nijmegen 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Johan Cruijff Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Feb 2026, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ajax 48% | Draw 21% | NEC Nijmegen 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 70% | xG Ajax 2.04 / NEC Nijmegen 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: Ajax attack 1.151 / def 0.844 | NEC Nijmegen attack 1.366 / def 1.085 | league avg home 1.630 / away 1.405 • Poisson stance: Ajax (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.04
Ajax xG
Expected Goals
1.62
NEC Nijmegen xG
70%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen kick off?
Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 21 February 2026 at Johan Cruijff Arena.
What was the final score in Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen?
Ajax 1 - 1 NEC Nijmegen.
Where is Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen being played?
The match is being played at Johan Cruijff Arena.
What competition is Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen part of?
Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our statistical model gives Ajax a 48% chance of winning, NEC Nijmegen a 31% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Ajax the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Ajax and NEC Nijmegen will score (BTTS).
Will Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ajax and NEC Nijmegen?
Record (9 meetings): Ajax 5W | Draws 3 | NEC Nijmegen 1W.
What form are Ajax and NEC Nijmegen in?
Ajax (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-D-D-W. NEC Nijmegen (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Ajax's attacking strength (1.15x league average) is weighed against NEC Nijmegen's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.04. The same calculation in reverse, NEC Nijmegen's attack versus Ajax's defence, projects 1.62 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 2-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ajax Win
48%
2.10
21%
4.69
31%
3.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.5%
Draw
2 – 2
7.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.04
Ajax xG
Total xG
3.66
1.62
NEC Nijmegen xG
2.10
48%
Home win
4.69
21%
Draw
3.22
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.43
30%
BTTS No
3.30
Clean Sheet
20%
5.05
13%
7.66
Win to Nil
9%
10.60
4%
24.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 4.2 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 8.5 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.7 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 5.9 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are Ajax and NEC Nijmegen expected to score?
The model projects 2.04 expected goals for Ajax and 1.62 for NEC Nijmegen, a combined total of 3.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ajax come into this having played 57 games, going 35W 15D 7L for 2.11 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-D-W. The sample for Ajax is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, NEC Nijmegen sit at 1.49 PPG from 57 outings (24W 13D 20L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for NEC Nijmegen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ajax carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.62 PPG clear of NEC Nijmegen — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Ajax's home form reads 21W 5D 3L across 29 games on their own ground, a 2.34 PPG return.
Away from home, NEC Nijmegen have taken 1.31 points per game from 29 outings (11W 5D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ajax come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Ajax are averaging 1.98 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; NEC Nijmegen are on 1.93 scored and 1.51 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: NEC Nijmegen in 61%.
Defensively: Ajax have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ajax
Blended
NEC Nijmegen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ajax and NEC Nijmegen in coming into this match?
Ajax have gone 35W 15D 7L in their last 57 games (2.11 PPG), while NEC Nijmegen have gone 24W 13D 20L in their last 57 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ajax at home or NEC Nijmegen away?
Ajax's home record (2.34 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ajax at home: 2.34 PPG; NEC Nijmegen away: 1.31 PPG.
Have Ajax or NEC Nijmegen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ajax have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, NEC Nijmegen in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Aug 2021, when Ajax won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ajax's record when hosting NEC Nijmegen specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Ajax
4
Draws
1
NEC Nijmegen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ajax and NEC Nijmegen?
From 10 meetings on record, Ajax have won 5, NEC Nijmegen have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Ajax and NEC Nijmegen last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Ajax 1-1 NEC Nijmegen.
Who has won more matches between Ajax and NEC Nijmegen?
Ajax have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ajax are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 72% of the time.
NEC Nijmegen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ajax 48%, NEC Nijmegen 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Ajax) and 59% (NEC Nijmegen). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 34% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ajax keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; NEC Nijmegen in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ajax home games / NEC Nijmegen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ajax play NEC Nijmegen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Ajax's recent matches and 52% of NEC Nijmegen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Ajax's matches and 59% of NEC Nijmegen's.
Do Ajax and NEC Nijmegen tend to score early?
Ajax have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, NEC Nijmegen in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ajax and NEC Nijmegen share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ajax and NEC Nijmegen finished level at 1-1 at Johan Cruijff Arena, Regular Season - 24, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ajax 2.04 xG and NEC Nijmegen 1.62 xG, a combined 3.66. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Ajax fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ajax attack 1.15 / defence 0.84 against NEC Nijmegen attack 1.37 / defence 1.08, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ajax 48% | Draw 21% | NEC Nijmegen 31%, with Ajax to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ajax 58%, NEC Nijmegen 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ajax's trading profile (57 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
NEC Nijmegen's trading profile (57 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Ajax arrived the stronger side — 2.11 PPG against 1.49. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Ajax (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.10 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.