NAC Breda 0-1 AZ Alkmaar – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates NAC Breda at 40%, yet in-form AZ Alkmaar provide a compelling counter-argument — this NAC Breda vs AZ Alkmaar fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
NAC Breda and AZ Alkmaar meet at Rat Verlegh Stadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 4. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 31 August 2025 at 15:45 UTC.
Form
NAC Breda (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Eredivisie fixtures this term — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. NAC Breda have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, NAC Breda have posted 2W 6D 2L at Rat Verlegh Stadion — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — NAC Breda are significantly better at Rat Verlegh Stadion than their overall form suggests.
AZ Alkmaar's overall Eredivisie record this term: 6W 3D 1L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: D W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. AZ Alkmaar have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
AZ Alkmaar's away record: 3W 5D 2L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
AZ Alkmaar arrive in superior form — a 1.50 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 0.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — NAC Breda have seen both teams score in 90% of their games, AZ Alkmaar in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for NAC Breda, 1 for AZ Alkmaar and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Apr 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
NAC Breda goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (37 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
AZ Alkmaar goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (37 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — NAC Breda 57% versus AZ Alkmaar 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NAC Breda 51% | AZ Alkmaar 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NAC Breda 1.61 xG and AZ Alkmaar 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NAC Breda attack 0.938 / defence 0.978 | AZ Alkmaar attack 1.136 / defence 1.009. League average goals — home 1.705 / away 1.345. Data: 37 NAC Breda games / 36 AZ Alkmaar games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: NAC Breda 40% | Draw 26% | AZ Alkmaar 35%. Fair-value odds: NAC Breda 2.50 | Draw 3.85 | AZ Alkmaar 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.61 / 1.49) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates NAC Breda as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form AZ Alkmaar (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on NAC Breda if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.11 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: NAC Breda 90% | AZ Alkmaar 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NAC Breda vs AZ Alkmaar | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Rat Verlegh Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Aug 2025, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NAC Breda 40% | Draw 26% | AZ Alkmaar 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 63% | xG NAC Breda 1.61 / AZ Alkmaar 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: NAC Breda attack 0.938 / def 0.978 | AZ Alkmaar attack 1.136 / def 1.009 | league avg home 1.705 / away 1.345 • Poisson stance: NAC Breda (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
NAC Breda xG
Expected Goals
1.49
AZ Alkmaar xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NAC Breda vs AZ Alkmaar kick off?
NAC Breda vs AZ Alkmaar kicked off at 15:45 on Sunday 31 August 2025 at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What was the final score in NAC Breda vs AZ Alkmaar?
NAC Breda 0 - 1 AZ Alkmaar.
Where is NAC Breda vs AZ Alkmaar being played?
The match is being played at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What competition is NAC Breda vs AZ Alkmaar part of?
NAC Breda vs AZ Alkmaar is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NAC Breda vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our statistical model gives NAC Breda a 40% chance of winning, AZ Alkmaar a 35% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making NAC Breda the favourite.
Will both teams score in NAC Breda vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both NAC Breda and AZ Alkmaar will score (BTTS).
Will NAC Breda vs AZ Alkmaar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and AZ Alkmaar?
Record (2 meetings): NAC Breda 0W | Draws 1 | AZ Alkmaar 1W.
What form are NAC Breda and AZ Alkmaar in?
NAC Breda (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. AZ Alkmaar (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from NAC Breda's attack rating (0.94) and AZ Alkmaar's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.61 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — AZ Alkmaar's attack (1.14x) against NAC Breda's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.49.
These ratings are built from 37/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
NAC Breda Win
40%
2.52
26%
3.90
35%
2.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
NAC Breda xG
Total xG
3.11
1.49
AZ Alkmaar xG
2.52
40%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
2.89
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.70
Clean Sheet
22%
4.45
20%
5.01
Win to Nil
9%
11.21
7%
14.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 6.7 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 10.8 | 8.1 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.7 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.7 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NAC Breda vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are NAC Breda and AZ Alkmaar expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for NAC Breda and 1.49 for AZ Alkmaar, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for NAC Breda vs AZ Alkmaar?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
NAC Breda's recent record stands at 9W 9D 19L from 37 games, a 0.97 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for NAC Breda, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
AZ Alkmaar, meanwhile, have gone 18W 10D 9L across 37 games — 1.73 PPG, with D-W-W-W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for AZ Alkmaar, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours AZ Alkmaar by 0.76 — a real, if not enormous, edge over NAC Breda heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, NAC Breda have managed 6W 6D 5L from 17 games — 1.41 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.97 PPG overall — NAC Breda are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
AZ Alkmaar's away record stands at 7W 6D 4L across 17 trips, a 1.59 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
NAC Breda are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; AZ Alkmaar are on 1.89 scored and 1.16 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: AZ Alkmaar in 62%.
Last 37 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NAC Breda
Early Season
AZ Alkmaar
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NAC Breda and AZ Alkmaar in coming into this match?
NAC Breda have gone 9W 9D 19L in their last 37 games (0.97 PPG), while AZ Alkmaar have gone 18W 10D 9L in their last 37 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NAC Breda at home or AZ Alkmaar away?
AZ Alkmaar's away record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NAC Breda at home: 1.41 PPG; AZ Alkmaar away: 1.59 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 17 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, NAC Breda have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against AZ Alkmaar — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
NAC Breda
2
Draws
2
AZ Alkmaar
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and AZ Alkmaar?
From 4 meetings on record, NAC Breda have won 0, AZ Alkmaar have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did NAC Breda and AZ Alkmaar last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when AZ Alkmaar 3-3 NAC Breda.
Who has won more matches between NAC Breda and AZ Alkmaar?
AZ Alkmaar have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
AZ Alkmaar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — NAC Breda 71%, AZ Alkmaar 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (NAC Breda) and 71% (AZ Alkmaar). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 18% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NAC Breda home games / AZ Alkmaar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NAC Breda play AZ Alkmaar?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of NAC Breda's games and 59% of AZ Alkmaar's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is NAC Breda vs AZ Alkmaar usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of NAC Breda's matches and 71% of AZ Alkmaar's.
Do NAC Breda and AZ Alkmaar tend to score early?
NAC Breda have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, AZ Alkmaar in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as AZ Alkmaar defy the odds to beat NAC Breda 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AZ Alkmaar beat NAC Breda 0-1 at Rat Verlegh Stadion, Regular Season - 4, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NAC Breda 1.61 xG and AZ Alkmaar 1.49 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. NAC Breda fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NAC Breda attack 0.94 / defence 0.98 against AZ Alkmaar attack 1.14 / defence 1.01, drawn from 37/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it NAC Breda 40% | Draw 26% | AZ Alkmaar 35%, with NAC Breda to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual AZ Alkmaar win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NAC Breda 51%, AZ Alkmaar 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NAC Breda's trading profile (37 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
AZ Alkmaar's trading profile (37 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, AZ Alkmaar arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 0.97. Form held, and they took the win. NAC Breda (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward. AZ Alkmaar (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.