Heracles 8-2 PEC Zwolle – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours PEC Zwolle (49%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Heracles face PEC Zwolle.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Regular Season - 11 as Heracles welcome PEC Zwolle to Asito Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 2 November 2025 at 11:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Heracles have gone 1W 0D 9L from 10 outings — a 0.30 PPG return. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 3.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 3.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Heracles, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Asito Stadium, Heracles have gone 5W 0D 5L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — Heracles are significantly better at Asito Stadium than their overall form suggests.
PEC Zwolle — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for PEC Zwolle, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PEC Zwolle's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour PEC Zwolle — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (0.90 vs 0.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Heracles, 5 for PEC Zwolle and 0 shared spoils from 8 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 8 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.4 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 2 Mar 2025, ended 4–2 with Heracles winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Heracles in-play tendencies (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
PEC Zwolle in-play tendencies (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Heracles 59% versus PEC Zwolle 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Heracles 64% | PEC Zwolle 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Heracles 1.72 xG and PEC Zwolle 2.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Heracles attack 0.938 / defence 1.384 | PEC Zwolle attack 1.014 / defence 1.065. League average goals — home 1.723 / away 1.550. Data: 44 Heracles games / 44 PEC Zwolle games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Heracles 31% | Draw 21% | PEC Zwolle 49%. Fair-value odds: Heracles 3.23 | Draw 4.76 | PEC Zwolle 2.04. PEC Zwolle hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 75% | BTTS probability 73% | Total xG 3.90. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 75% — a total xG of 3.90 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% reflects that both xG figures (1.72 / 2.18) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, PEC Zwolle are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.90 combined xG gives a 75% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 73% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Heracles 70% | PEC Zwolle 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Heracles vs PEC Zwolle | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Asito Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Nov 2025, 11:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Heracles 31% | Draw 21% | PEC Zwolle 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 75% | BTTS 73% | xG Heracles 1.72 / PEC Zwolle 2.18 • Poisson strength factors: Heracles attack 0.938 / def 1.384 | PEC Zwolle attack 1.014 / def 1.065 | league avg home 1.723 / away 1.550 • Poisson stance: PEC Zwolle (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Heracles xG
Expected Goals
2.18
PEC Zwolle xG
73%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
55%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Heracles vs PEC Zwolle kick off?
Heracles vs PEC Zwolle kicked off at 11:15 on Sunday 2 November 2025 at Asito Stadium.
What was the final score in Heracles vs PEC Zwolle?
Heracles 8 - 2 PEC Zwolle.
Where is Heracles vs PEC Zwolle being played?
The match is being played at Asito Stadium.
What competition is Heracles vs PEC Zwolle part of?
Heracles vs PEC Zwolle is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Heracles vs PEC Zwolle?
Our statistical model gives Heracles a 31% chance of winning, PEC Zwolle a 49% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making PEC Zwolle the favourite.
Will both teams score in Heracles vs PEC Zwolle?
Our model estimates a 73% probability that both Heracles and PEC Zwolle will score (BTTS).
Will Heracles vs PEC Zwolle have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 75%.
What is the head-to-head record between Heracles and PEC Zwolle?
Record (8 meetings): Heracles 3W | Draws 0 | PEC Zwolle 5W.
What form are Heracles and PEC Zwolle in?
Heracles (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 3.00 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. PEC Zwolle (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Heracles's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against PEC Zwolle's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.72. The same calculation in reverse, PEC Zwolle's attack versus Heracles's defence, projects 2.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 8.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.3%), 2-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
PEC Zwolle Win
31%
3.23
21%
4.87
49%
2.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.6%
Draw
2 – 2
7.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Heracles xG
Total xG
3.90
2.18
PEC Zwolle xG
3.23
31%
Home win
4.87
21%
Draw
2.06
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
75%
Over 2.5
1.33
25%
Under 2.5
4.00
55%
Over 3.5
1.82
45%
Under 3.5
2.22
35%
Over 4.5
2.86
65%
Under 4.5
1.54
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
73%
BTTS Yes
1.37
27%
BTTS No
3.68
Clean Sheet
11%
8.81
18%
5.59
Win to Nil
4%
28.50
9%
11.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.0 | 4.4 | 4.8 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 3.5 | 7.6 | 8.3 | 6.0 | 3.3 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 6.5 | 7.1 | 5.2 | 2.8 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 3.8 | 4.1 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Heracles vs PEC Zwolle?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.6%.
How many goals are Heracles and PEC Zwolle expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Heracles and 2.18 for PEC Zwolle, a combined total of 3.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Heracles vs PEC Zwolle?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Heracles's recent record stands at 10W 11D 23L from 44 games, a 0.93 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Heracles is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
PEC Zwolle, meanwhile, have gone 12W 14D 18L across 44 games — 1.14 PPG, with D-L-L-D-D in their last five. The sample for PEC Zwolle is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Heracles on 0.93 PPG, PEC Zwolle on 1.14. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Heracles have managed 7W 7D 7L from 21 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.93 PPG overall — Heracles are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
PEC Zwolle's away record stands at 4W 9D 8L across 21 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Heracles are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 2.11 conceded per game recently; PEC Zwolle are on 1.23 scored and 1.59 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Heracles
Blended
PEC Zwolle
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Heracles and PEC Zwolle in coming into this match?
Heracles have gone 10W 11D 23L in their last 44 games (0.93 PPG), while PEC Zwolle have gone 12W 14D 18L in their last 44 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Heracles at home or PEC Zwolle away?
Heracles's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Heracles at home: 1.33 PPG; PEC Zwolle away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Nov 2025, when Heracles won 8-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Heracles's record when hosting PEC Zwolle specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Heracles
0
Draws
6
PEC Zwolle
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Heracles and PEC Zwolle?
From 10 meetings on record, Heracles have won 4, PEC Zwolle have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Heracles and PEC Zwolle last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when PEC Zwolle 1-0 Heracles.
Who has won more matches between Heracles and PEC Zwolle?
PEC Zwolle have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Heracles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Heracles at 76%, PEC Zwolle at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Heracles and 57% for PEC Zwolle. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: PEC Zwolle in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Heracles home games / PEC Zwolle away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Heracles play PEC Zwolle?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 76% of Heracles's games and 67% of PEC Zwolle's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Heracles vs PEC Zwolle usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Heracles's matches and 57% of PEC Zwolle's.
Do Heracles and PEC Zwolle tend to score early?
Heracles have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, PEC Zwolle in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Heracles run riot with a 8-2 hammering of PEC Zwolle.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Heracles beat PEC Zwolle 8-2 at Asito Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Heracles 1.72 xG and PEC Zwolle 2.18 xG, a combined 3.90. The scoreboard read 8-2 for 10 actual goals. Heracles beat their projection by 6.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Heracles attack 0.94 / defence 1.38 against PEC Zwolle attack 1.01 / defence 1.06, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Heracles 31% | Draw 21% | PEC Zwolle 49%, with PEC Zwolle to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual Heracles win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 75%. The game delivered 10, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 55% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Heracles 64%, PEC Zwolle 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Heracles's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Heracles 0.93 PPG, PEC Zwolle 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Heracles win broke the near-deadlock. Heracles (home/away splits) scored 8 against a 1.62 average — above their attacking norm. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) shipped 8 against a 1.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.