Heracles 1-2 AZ Alkmaar – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates AZ Alkmaar at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Heracles vs AZ Alkmaar encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees AZ Alkmaar travel to Asito Stadium to take on Heracles. The game is scheduled for Sunday 14 September 2025, 13:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Heracles stand at 2W 0D 8L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.90 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Heracles have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Heracles's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Asito Stadium this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Heracles are significantly better at Asito Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eredivisie games this season, AZ Alkmaar have recorded 7W 3D 0L from 10 outings — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. AZ Alkmaar have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
AZ Alkmaar's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. AZ Alkmaar are 1.80 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 0.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Heracles have won 3, AZ Alkmaar 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 13 Apr 2025, ended 1–0 with Heracles winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Heracles in-play and half-time data (38 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
AZ Alkmaar in-play and half-time data (38 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Heracles 60% and AZ Alkmaar 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Heracles 58% | AZ Alkmaar 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Heracles 1.39 xG and AZ Alkmaar 1.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Heracles attack 0.944 / defence 1.263 | AZ Alkmaar attack 1.075 / defence 0.866. League average goals — home 1.704 / away 1.361. Data: 38 Heracles games / 37 AZ Alkmaar games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Heracles 29% | Draw 23% | AZ Alkmaar 48%. Fair-value odds: Heracles 3.45 | Draw 4.35 | AZ Alkmaar 2.08. AZ Alkmaar hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.24. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.24 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.39 / 1.85) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AZ Alkmaar at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AZ Alkmaar offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.24 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Heracles 90% | AZ Alkmaar 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Heracles vs AZ Alkmaar | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Asito Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Sep 2025, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Heracles 29% | Draw 23% | AZ Alkmaar 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 63% | xG Heracles 1.39 / AZ Alkmaar 1.85 • Poisson strength factors: Heracles attack 0.944 / def 1.263 | AZ Alkmaar attack 1.075 / def 0.866 | league avg home 1.704 / away 1.361 • Poisson stance: AZ Alkmaar (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Heracles xG
Expected Goals
1.85
AZ Alkmaar xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Heracles vs AZ Alkmaar kick off?
Heracles vs AZ Alkmaar kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 14 September 2025 at Asito Stadium.
What was the final score in Heracles vs AZ Alkmaar?
Heracles 1 - 2 AZ Alkmaar.
Where is Heracles vs AZ Alkmaar being played?
The match is being played at Asito Stadium.
What competition is Heracles vs AZ Alkmaar part of?
Heracles vs AZ Alkmaar is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Heracles vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our statistical model gives Heracles a 29% chance of winning, AZ Alkmaar a 48% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making AZ Alkmaar the favourite.
Will both teams score in Heracles vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Heracles and AZ Alkmaar will score (BTTS).
Will Heracles vs AZ Alkmaar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Heracles and AZ Alkmaar?
Record (6 meetings): Heracles 3W | Draws 1 | AZ Alkmaar 2W.
What form are Heracles and AZ Alkmaar in?
Heracles (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. AZ Alkmaar (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Heracles's attack at 0.94x the league average against AZ Alkmaar's defence at 0.87x — combine the two and it projects 1.39 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, AZ Alkmaar's attack versus Heracles's defence, projects 1.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 2-1 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
AZ Alkmaar Win
29%
3.44
23%
4.41
48%
2.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
0 – 1
7.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Heracles xG
Total xG
3.24
1.85
AZ Alkmaar xG
3.44
29%
Home win
4.41
23%
Draw
2.07
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.73
Clean Sheet
16%
6.34
25%
4.03
Win to Nil
5%
21.79
12%
8.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 7.2 | 6.7 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 10.1 | 9.3 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 7.0 | 6.5 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Heracles vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Heracles and AZ Alkmaar expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Heracles and 1.85 for AZ Alkmaar, a combined total of 3.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Heracles vs AZ Alkmaar?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Heracles come into this having played 38 games, going 9W 11D 18L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Heracles, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, AZ Alkmaar sit at 1.76 PPG from 38 outings (19W 10D 9L), a run that reads W-W-W-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for AZ Alkmaar, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
AZ Alkmaar carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.76 PPG clear of Heracles — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Heracles's home form reads 6W 7D 5L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.39 PPG return.
Away from home, AZ Alkmaar have taken 1.67 points per game from 18 outings (8W 6D 4L).
Goals in Recent Form
Heracles are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 2.03 conceded per game recently; AZ Alkmaar are on 1.87 scored and 1.13 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Heracles have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; AZ Alkmaar in 61%.
Last 38 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Heracles
Early Season
AZ Alkmaar
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Heracles and AZ Alkmaar in coming into this match?
Heracles have gone 9W 11D 18L in their last 38 games (1.00 PPG), while AZ Alkmaar have gone 19W 10D 9L in their last 38 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Heracles at home or AZ Alkmaar away?
AZ Alkmaar's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Heracles at home: 1.39 PPG; AZ Alkmaar away: 1.67 PPG.
Have Heracles or AZ Alkmaar been keeping clean sheets recently?
Heracles have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, AZ Alkmaar in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
AZ Alkmaar have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Apr 2024, when Heracles won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Heracles's record when hosting AZ Alkmaar specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Heracles
1
Draws
4
AZ Alkmaar
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Heracles and AZ Alkmaar?
From 8 meetings on record, Heracles have won 3, AZ Alkmaar have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Heracles and AZ Alkmaar last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when AZ Alkmaar 4-0 Heracles.
Who has won more matches between Heracles and AZ Alkmaar?
AZ Alkmaar have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Heracles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
AZ Alkmaar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Heracles at 83%, AZ Alkmaar at 56%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for Heracles and 67% for AZ Alkmaar. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: AZ Alkmaar in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Heracles home games / AZ Alkmaar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Heracles play AZ Alkmaar?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of Heracles's games and 56% of AZ Alkmaar's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Heracles vs AZ Alkmaar usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Heracles's matches and 67% of AZ Alkmaar's.
Do Heracles and AZ Alkmaar tend to score early?
Heracles have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, AZ Alkmaar in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as AZ Alkmaar edge out Heracles 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AZ Alkmaar beat Heracles 1-2 at Asito Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Heracles 1.39 xG and AZ Alkmaar 1.85 xG, a combined 3.24. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Heracles attack 0.94 / defence 1.26 against AZ Alkmaar attack 1.07 / defence 0.87, drawn from 38/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Heracles 29% | Draw 23% | AZ Alkmaar 48%, with AZ Alkmaar to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Heracles 58%, AZ Alkmaar 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Heracles's trading profile (38 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
AZ Alkmaar's trading profile (38 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, AZ Alkmaar arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.