Groningen 1-1 Emmen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Groningen at 49%, yet in-form Emmen provide a compelling counter-argument — this Groningen vs Emmen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Euroborg plays host to Groningen versus Emmen in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Saturday 18 February 2023 at 17:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Groningen have collected 0.20 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 0W 2D 8L. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Groningen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Groningen at Euroborg this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 0.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.20 — Groningen are significantly better at Euroborg than their overall form suggests.
Emmen's overall Eredivisie record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L W L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Emmen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Emmen's form when playing away from home: 1W 0D 9L across 10 road games this term (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Emmen are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (1.00 vs 0.20). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Groningen 0W, Emmen 0W, 1D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 0.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 30 Oct 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Groningen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Emmen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Groningen 62% versus Emmen 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Groningen 54% | Emmen 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Groningen 1.68 xG and Emmen 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Groningen attack 0.868 / defence 1.320 | Emmen attack 0.693 / defence 1.279. League average goals — home 1.508 / away 1.164. Emmen bring a strong defensive rating of 1.279 — this is suppressing Groningen's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 55 Groningen games / 21 Emmen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Groningen 49% | Draw 29% | Emmen 22%. Fair-value odds: Groningen 2.04 | Draw 3.45 | Emmen 4.55. Groningen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Groningen as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Emmen (1.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Groningen if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.74 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Groningen 60% | Emmen 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Groningen vs Emmen | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Euroborg • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Feb 2023, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Groningen 49% | Draw 29% | Emmen 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Groningen 1.68 / Emmen 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Groningen attack 0.868 / def 1.320 | Emmen attack 0.693 / def 1.279 | league avg home 1.508 / away 1.164 • Poisson stance: Groningen (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Groningen xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Emmen xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Groningen vs Emmen kick off?
Groningen vs Emmen kicked off at 17:45 on Saturday 18 February 2023 at Euroborg.
What was the final score in Groningen vs Emmen?
Groningen 1 - 1 Emmen.
Where is Groningen vs Emmen being played?
The match is being played at Euroborg.
What competition is Groningen vs Emmen part of?
Groningen vs Emmen is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Groningen vs Emmen?
Our statistical model gives Groningen a 49% chance of winning, Emmen a 22% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Groningen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Groningen vs Emmen?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Groningen and Emmen will score (BTTS).
Will Groningen vs Emmen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Groningen and Emmen?
Record (1 meetings): Groningen 0W | Draws 1 | Emmen 0W.
What form are Groningen and Emmen in?
Groningen (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Emmen (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Groningen's attack at 0.87x the league average against Emmen's defence at 1.28x — combine the two and it projects 1.68 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Emmen's attack (0.69x) against Groningen's defence (1.32x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 55/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Groningen Win
49%
2.03
29%
3.44
22%
4.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Groningen xG
Total xG
2.74
1.06
Emmen xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
4.61
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
34%
2.90
19%
5.34
Win to Nil
17%
5.90
4%
24.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 11.5 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.6 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Groningen vs Emmen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Groningen and Emmen expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Groningen and 1.06 for Emmen, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Groningen vs Emmen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Groningen's recent record stands at 12W 13D 30L from 55 games, a 0.89 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Groningen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Emmen, meanwhile, have gone 28W 11D 16L across 55 games — 1.73 PPG, with L-W-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Emmen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Emmen by 0.84 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Groningen heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Groningen have managed 6W 8D 13L from 27 games — 0.96 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Emmen's away record stands at 11W 4D 12L across 27 trips, a 1.37 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Emmen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Groningen are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.85 conceded per game recently; Emmen are on 1.42 scored and 1.02 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Groningen have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: Emmen in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Groningen
Blended
Emmen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Groningen and Emmen in coming into this match?
Groningen have gone 12W 13D 30L in their last 55 games (0.89 PPG), while Emmen have gone 28W 11D 16L in their last 55 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Groningen at home or Emmen away?
Emmen's away record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Groningen at home: 0.96 PPG; Emmen away: 1.37 PPG.
Have Groningen or Emmen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Groningen have kept a clean sheet in 13% of their recent games, Emmen in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Groningen won 0-3 on 1 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Groningen have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Emmen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Groningen
3
Draws
0
Emmen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Groningen and Emmen?
From 4 meetings on record, Groningen have won 1, Emmen have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Groningen and Emmen last play each other?
They last met on 1 April 2024, when Emmen 0-3 Groningen.
Who has won more matches between Groningen and Emmen?
Groningen have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Groningen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Emmen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Groningen 59%, Emmen 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Groningen) and 41% (Emmen).
On the defensive side: Emmen in 33%; Groningen have failed to score in 30% of games; Emmen in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Groningen home games / Emmen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Groningen play Emmen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Groningen's recent matches and 41% of Emmen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Groningen vs Emmen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Groningen's recent games and 41% of Emmen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Groningen and Emmen tend to score early?
Groningen have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Emmen in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Groningen and Emmen share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Groningen and Emmen finished level at 1-1 at Euroborg, Regular Season - 22, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Groningen 1.68 xG and Emmen 1.06 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Groningen attack 0.87 / defence 1.32 against Emmen attack 0.69 / defence 1.28, drawn from 55/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Groningen 49% | Draw 29% | Emmen 22%, with Groningen to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Groningen 54%, Emmen 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Groningen's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Emmen's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Emmen arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 0.89. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.