Fortuna Sittard 1-0 NAC Breda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fortuna Sittard at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fortuna Sittard vs NAC Breda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
NAC Breda make the trip to Fortuna Sittard Stadion to face Fortuna Sittard in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 32. The match kicks off on Saturday 10 May 2025 at 17:45 UTC.
Form
Fortuna Sittard (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Eredivisie fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters this season, Fortuna Sittard have posted 4W 0D 6L at Fortuna Sittard Stadion — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
NAC Breda's overall Eredivisie record this term: 0W 6D 4L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: D L D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
NAC Breda's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for Fortuna Sittard against 0.60 for NAC Breda. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Fortuna Sittard lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Sep 2024, ended 0–1 with NAC Breda winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Fortuna Sittard — key trading statistics (65 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
NAC Breda — key trading statistics (65 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fortuna Sittard 45% versus NAC Breda 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fortuna Sittard 55% | NAC Breda 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fortuna Sittard 1.30 xG and NAC Breda 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortuna Sittard attack 0.667 / defence 1.142 | NAC Breda attack 0.765 / defence 1.200. League average goals — home 1.621 / away 1.333. Fortuna Sittard's attack strength of 0.667 is below the league average — the 1.30 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 65 Fortuna Sittard games / 31 NAC Breda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fortuna Sittard 38% | Draw 30% | NAC Breda 32%. Fair-value odds: Fortuna Sittard 2.63 | Draw 3.33 | NAC Breda 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fortuna Sittard are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fortuna Sittard if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.46 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: Fortuna Sittard 30% | NAC Breda 60%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fortuna Sittard vs NAC Breda | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Fortuna Sittard Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 10 May 2025, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fortuna Sittard 38% | Draw 30% | NAC Breda 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Fortuna Sittard 1.30 / NAC Breda 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Fortuna Sittard attack 0.667 / def 1.142 | NAC Breda attack 0.765 / def 1.200 | league avg home 1.621 / away 1.333 • Poisson stance: Fortuna Sittard (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Fortuna Sittard xG
Expected Goals
1.17
NAC Breda xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fortuna Sittard vs NAC Breda kick off?
Fortuna Sittard vs NAC Breda kicked off at 17:45 on Saturday 10 May 2025 at Fortuna Sittard Stadion.
What was the final score in Fortuna Sittard vs NAC Breda?
Fortuna Sittard 1 - 0 NAC Breda.
Where is Fortuna Sittard vs NAC Breda being played?
The match is being played at Fortuna Sittard Stadion.
What competition is Fortuna Sittard vs NAC Breda part of?
Fortuna Sittard vs NAC Breda is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Fortuna Sittard vs NAC Breda?
Our statistical model gives Fortuna Sittard a 38% chance of winning, NAC Breda a 32% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Fortuna Sittard the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fortuna Sittard vs NAC Breda?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Fortuna Sittard and NAC Breda will score (BTTS).
Will Fortuna Sittard vs NAC Breda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Sittard and NAC Breda?
Record (1 meetings): Fortuna Sittard 0W | Draws 0 | NAC Breda 1W.
What form are Fortuna Sittard and NAC Breda in?
Fortuna Sittard (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. NAC Breda (all comps): 0W-6D-4L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Fortuna Sittard's attack at 0.67x the league average against NAC Breda's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 1.30 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — NAC Breda's attack (0.77x) against Fortuna Sittard's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 65/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fortuna Sittard Win
38%
2.61
30%
3.36
32%
3.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Fortuna Sittard xG
Total xG
2.46
1.17
NAC Breda xG
2.61
38%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
3.13
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
31%
3.21
27%
3.66
Win to Nil
12%
8.37
9%
11.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 9.9 | 5.8 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 12.9 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.4 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fortuna Sittard vs NAC Breda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Fortuna Sittard and NAC Breda expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Fortuna Sittard and 1.17 for NAC Breda, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Fortuna Sittard vs NAC Breda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Fortuna Sittard come into this having played 65 games, going 19W 17D 29L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-L.
On the other side, NAC Breda sit at 1.34 PPG from 65 outings (23W 18D 24L), a run that reads D-L-D-D-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.14 PPG for Fortuna Sittard against 1.34 for NAC Breda. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Fortuna Sittard's home form reads 13W 6D 12L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.45 PPG return.
Away from home, NAC Breda have taken 1.10 points per game from 31 outings (9W 7D 15L).
Attack vs Defence
Fortuna Sittard are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; NAC Breda are on 1.49 scored and 1.49 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: NAC Breda in 65%.
Last 65 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fortuna Sittard
Current Season
NAC Breda
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fortuna Sittard and NAC Breda in coming into this match?
Fortuna Sittard have gone 19W 17D 29L in their last 65 games (1.14 PPG), while NAC Breda have gone 23W 18D 24L in their last 65 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fortuna Sittard at home or NAC Breda away?
Fortuna Sittard's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fortuna Sittard at home: 1.45 PPG; NAC Breda away: 1.10 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fortuna Sittard have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against NAC Breda — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Fortuna Sittard
1
Draws
2
NAC Breda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Sittard and NAC Breda?
From 4 meetings on record, Fortuna Sittard have won 1, NAC Breda have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Fortuna Sittard and NAC Breda last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Fortuna Sittard 1-1 NAC Breda.
Who has won more matches between Fortuna Sittard and NAC Breda?
NAC Breda have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Fortuna Sittard are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fortuna Sittard 42%, NAC Breda 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Fortuna Sittard) and 58% (NAC Breda). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fortuna Sittard keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Fortuna Sittard have failed to score in 36% of games; NAC Breda in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fortuna Sittard home games / NAC Breda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fortuna Sittard play NAC Breda?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Fortuna Sittard's recent matches and 58% of NAC Breda's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fortuna Sittard vs NAC Breda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Fortuna Sittard's matches and 58% of NAC Breda's.
Do Fortuna Sittard and NAC Breda tend to score early?
Fortuna Sittard have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, NAC Breda in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Fortuna Sittard edge out NAC Breda 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fortuna Sittard beat NAC Breda 1-0 at Fortuna Sittard Stadion, Regular Season - 32, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortuna Sittard 1.30 xG and NAC Breda 1.17 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. NAC Breda landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortuna Sittard attack 0.67 / defence 1.14 against NAC Breda attack 0.77 / defence 1.20, drawn from 65/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fortuna Sittard 38% | Draw 30% | NAC Breda 32%, with Fortuna Sittard to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortuna Sittard 55%, NAC Breda 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fortuna Sittard's trading profile (65 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not.
NAC Breda's trading profile (65 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fortuna Sittard 1.14 PPG, NAC Breda 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fortuna Sittard win broke the near-deadlock. Fortuna Sittard (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line. NAC Breda (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.45 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.