NEC Nijmegen 3-0 NAC Breda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates NEC Nijmegen at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this NEC Nijmegen vs NAC Breda encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Goffertstadion plays host to NEC Nijmegen versus NAC Breda in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off: Wednesday 14 May 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
NEC Nijmegen (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Eredivisie fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W L D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
NEC Nijmegen's home record at Goffertstadion: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (1.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
NAC Breda's overall Eredivisie record this term: 0W 6D 4L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L D D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Eredivisie this season, NAC Breda have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward NEC Nijmegen. A 0.60 PPG lead over NAC Breda (1.20 vs 0.60) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — NEC Nijmegen have seen both teams score in 100% of their games, NAC Breda in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: NEC Nijmegen 0W, NAC Breda 1W, 0D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Oct 2024, ended 0–1 with NAC Breda winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
NEC Nijmegen half-time and goal-timing data (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
NAC Breda half-time and goal-timing data (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — NEC Nijmegen 58% and NAC Breda 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NEC Nijmegen 64% | NAC Breda 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NEC Nijmegen 2.19 xG and NAC Breda 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NEC Nijmegen attack 1.150 / defence 1.186 | NAC Breda attack 0.671 / defence 1.189. League average goals — home 1.603 / away 1.342. Data: 66 NEC Nijmegen games / 32 NAC Breda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: NEC Nijmegen 62% | Draw 21% | NAC Breda 17%. Fair-value odds: NEC Nijmegen 1.61 | Draw 4.76 | NAC Breda 5.88. The model has a clear lean to NEC Nijmegen (62%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.26. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.26 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is NEC Nijmegen at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.26 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: NEC Nijmegen 100% | NAC Breda 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NEC Nijmegen vs NAC Breda | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Goffertstadion • Kick-off: Wednesday 14 May 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NEC Nijmegen 62% | Draw 21% | NAC Breda 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 59% | xG NEC Nijmegen 2.19 / NAC Breda 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: NEC Nijmegen attack 1.150 / def 1.186 | NAC Breda attack 0.671 / def 1.189 | league avg home 1.603 / away 1.342 • Poisson stance: NEC Nijmegen (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.19
NEC Nijmegen xG
Expected Goals
1.07
NAC Breda xG
59%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NEC Nijmegen vs NAC Breda kick off?
NEC Nijmegen vs NAC Breda kicked off at 19:00 on Wednesday 14 May 2025 at Goffertstadion.
What was the final score in NEC Nijmegen vs NAC Breda?
NEC Nijmegen 3 - 0 NAC Breda.
Where is NEC Nijmegen vs NAC Breda being played?
The match is being played at Goffertstadion.
What competition is NEC Nijmegen vs NAC Breda part of?
NEC Nijmegen vs NAC Breda is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NEC Nijmegen vs NAC Breda?
Our statistical model gives NEC Nijmegen a 62% chance of winning, NAC Breda a 17% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making NEC Nijmegen the favourite.
Will both teams score in NEC Nijmegen vs NAC Breda?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both NEC Nijmegen and NAC Breda will score (BTTS).
Will NEC Nijmegen vs NAC Breda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between NEC Nijmegen and NAC Breda?
Record (1 meetings): NEC Nijmegen 0W | Draws 0 | NAC Breda 1W.
What form are NEC Nijmegen and NAC Breda in?
NEC Nijmegen (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-D-W. NAC Breda (all comps): 0W-6D-4L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from NEC Nijmegen's attack rating (1.15) and NAC Breda's defence rating (1.19), the model arrives at 2.19 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — NAC Breda's attack (0.67x) against NEC Nijmegen's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from 66/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
NEC Nijmegen Win
62%
1.61
21%
4.66
17%
6.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.2%
Home win
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.19
NEC Nijmegen xG
Total xG
3.26
1.07
NAC Breda xG
1.61
62%
Home win
4.66
21%
Draw
6.05
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
34%
2.91
11%
8.95
Win to Nil
21%
4.69
2%
54.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.4 | 9.0 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.8 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.7 | 7.2 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.7 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NEC Nijmegen vs NAC Breda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are NEC Nijmegen and NAC Breda expected to score?
The model projects 2.19 expected goals for NEC Nijmegen and 1.07 for NAC Breda, a combined total of 3.26.
How confident is the prediction model for NEC Nijmegen vs NAC Breda?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
NEC Nijmegen come into this having played 67 games, going 24W 18D 25L for 1.34 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-D-W.
On the other side, NAC Breda sit at 1.34 PPG from 67 outings (24W 18D 25L), a run that reads L-D-D-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.34 PPG for NEC Nijmegen against 1.34 for NAC Breda. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
NEC Nijmegen's home form reads 13W 10D 10L across 33 games on their own ground, a 1.48 PPG return.
Away from home, NAC Breda have taken 1.12 points per game from 33 outings (10W 7D 16L).
Attack vs Defence
NEC Nijmegen are averaging 1.72 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; NAC Breda are on 1.49 scored and 1.49 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: NAC Breda in 64%.
Last 67 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NEC Nijmegen
Current Season
NAC Breda
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NEC Nijmegen and NAC Breda in coming into this match?
NEC Nijmegen have gone 24W 18D 25L in their last 67 games (1.34 PPG), while NAC Breda have gone 24W 18D 25L in their last 67 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NEC Nijmegen at home or NAC Breda away?
NEC Nijmegen's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NEC Nijmegen at home: 1.48 PPG; NAC Breda away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
NEC Nijmegen go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: NEC Nijmegen won 3-0 on 14 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, NEC Nijmegen have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against NAC Breda — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
NEC Nijmegen
0
Draws
1
NAC Breda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NEC Nijmegen and NAC Breda?
From 4 meetings on record, NEC Nijmegen have won 3, NAC Breda have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did NEC Nijmegen and NAC Breda last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when NAC Breda 3-4 NEC Nijmegen.
Who has won more matches between NEC Nijmegen and NAC Breda?
NEC Nijmegen have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
NEC Nijmegen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 73% for NEC Nijmegen, 58% for NAC Breda — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for NEC Nijmegen and 58% for NAC Breda. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: NAC Breda in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NEC Nijmegen home games / NAC Breda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NEC Nijmegen play NAC Breda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of NEC Nijmegen's games and 58% of NAC Breda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is NEC Nijmegen vs NAC Breda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of NEC Nijmegen's matches and 58% of NAC Breda's.
Do NEC Nijmegen and NAC Breda tend to score early?
NEC Nijmegen have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, NAC Breda in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant NEC Nijmegen run riot with a 3-0 hammering of NAC Breda.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
NEC Nijmegen beat NAC Breda 3-0 at Goffertstadion, Regular Season - 33, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NEC Nijmegen 2.19 xG and NAC Breda 1.07 xG, a combined 3.26. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. NEC Nijmegen beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. NAC Breda landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NEC Nijmegen attack 1.15 / defence 1.19 against NAC Breda attack 0.67 / defence 1.19, drawn from 66/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it NEC Nijmegen 62% | Draw 21% | NAC Breda 17%, with NEC Nijmegen to win its most likely call at 62%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NEC Nijmegen 64%, NAC Breda 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NEC Nijmegen's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
NAC Breda's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — NEC Nijmegen 1.34 PPG, NAC Breda 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the NEC Nijmegen win broke the near-deadlock. NEC Nijmegen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line. NAC Breda (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.45 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.