Feyenoord 1-1 AZ Alkmaar – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Feyenoord at 54% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar encounter.

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Analysis

AZ Alkmaar make the trip to De Kuip to face Feyenoord in Eredivisie (matchday 33). The match kicks off on Sunday 10 May 2026 at 16:45 UK time.

Form

Feyenoord (all games): 5W 4D 1L across their last 10 — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D D D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Feyenoord's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 home games (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

AZ Alkmaar have collected 1.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: L W W D D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

When travelling, AZ Alkmaar have posted 2W 1D 7L from their last 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.90 PPG for Feyenoord against 1.70 for AZ Alkmaar. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H History

The head-to-head record in our data favours Feyenoord, who have won 6 of the 8 H2H matches we hold against AZ Alkmaar — AZ Alkmaar have 1 win, with 1 draw.

The 8 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 21 Sep 2025, ended Feyenoord 3–3 AZ Alkmaar — a draw.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Feyenoord and goals — 6 wins from 8 H2H matches and an average of 3.0 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.

Trading Data

Feyenoord goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 66 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 88% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 53% of the time; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 41%; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.

AZ Alkmaar goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 66 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Feyenoord 62% and AZ Alkmaar 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Feyenoord 61% | AZ Alkmaar 65%). Note also that AZ Alkmaar surrender HT leads in 30% of cases while Feyenoord recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 41% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Feyenoord 1.88 xG and AZ Alkmaar 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Feyenoord attack 1.209 / defence 1.018 | AZ Alkmaar attack 0.796 / defence 0.909. League average goals — home 1.706 / away 1.294. AZ Alkmaar's attack rating of 0.796 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.05. Data: built from Feyenoord's last 66 games and AZ Alkmaar's last 66.

Result probabilities: Feyenoord 54% | Draw 28% | AZ Alkmaar 18%. Fair-value odds: Feyenoord 1.86 | Draw 3.53 | AZ Alkmaar 5.57. Feyenoord hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Feyenoord are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. The head-to-head data (Feyenoord 6 wins from 8 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Feyenoord if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.92 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Feyenoord's last 10 home games and AZ Alkmaar's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 8 H2H matches.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Feyenoord 90% (last 10 home games) | AZ Alkmaar 50% (last 10 away games).

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