NAC Breda 2-0 Heerenveen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Heerenveen at 40% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this NAC Breda vs Heerenveen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Heerenveen travel to Rat Verlegh Stadion to take on NAC Breda in Eredivisie (matchday 33). The game is scheduled for Monday 11 May 2026 at 14:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, NAC Breda stand at 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D D L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
NAC Breda at home: 1W 4D 5L from their last 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Across their last 10 games, Heerenveen have recorded 7W 1D 2L — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Heerenveen's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Heerenveen are 1.30 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 0.90), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, NAC Breda have won 0, Heerenveen 2, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 5.3 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 24 Oct 2025, ended NAC Breda 3–3 Heerenveen — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 5.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
NAC Breda in-play and half-time data (last 66 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 67%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Heerenveen in-play and half-time data (last 66 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; of the 24 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — NAC Breda 53% versus Heerenveen 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NAC Breda 50% | Heerenveen 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NAC Breda 1.25 xG and Heerenveen 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NAC Breda attack 0.733 / defence 1.090 | Heerenveen attack 1.072 / defence 0.997. League average goals — home 1.708 / away 1.302. NAC Breda's attack rating of 0.733 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.25. Data: built from NAC Breda's last 66 games and Heerenveen's last 66.
Result probabilities: NAC Breda 28% | Draw 32% | Heerenveen 40%. Fair-value odds: NAC Breda 3.62 | Draw 3.09 | Heerenveen 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Heerenveen as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Heerenveen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.77 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (NAC Breda's last 10 home games and Heerenveen's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 5.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: NAC Breda 40% (last 10 home games) | Heerenveen 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NAC Breda vs Heerenveen | Competition: Eredivisie, matchday 33 | Venue: Rat Verlegh Stadion • Kick-off: Monday 11 May 2026 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NAC Breda 28% | Draw 32% | Heerenveen 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG NAC Breda 1.25 / Heerenveen 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: NAC Breda attack 0.733 / def 1.090 | Heerenveen attack 1.072 / def 0.997 | league avg home 1.708 / away 1.302 • Poisson stance: Heerenveen (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
NAC Breda xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Heerenveen xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ NAC Breda vs Heerenveen FAQs
What time does NAC Breda vs Heerenveen kick off?
NAC Breda vs Heerenveen kicked off at 14:30 UK time on Monday 11 May 2026 at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What was the final score in NAC Breda vs Heerenveen?
NAC Breda 2 - 0 Heerenveen.
Where is NAC Breda vs Heerenveen being played?
The match is being played at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What competition is NAC Breda vs Heerenveen part of?
NAC Breda vs Heerenveen is a Eredivisie fixture (matchday 33) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NAC Breda vs Heerenveen?
Our statistical model gives NAC Breda a 28% chance of winning, Heerenveen a 40% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Heerenveen the favourite.
Will both teams score in NAC Breda vs Heerenveen?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both NAC Breda and Heerenveen will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will NAC Breda vs Heerenveen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from NAC Breda's attack rating (0.73) and Heerenveen's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.25 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Heerenveen's attack versus NAC Breda's defence, projects 1.52 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from NAC Breda's last 66 games and Heerenveen's last 66 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 0-1 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Heerenveen Win
28%
3.62
32%
3.09
40%
2.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
NAC Breda xG
Total xG
2.77
1.52
Heerenveen xG
3.62
28%
Home win
3.09
32%
Draw
2.50
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
22%
4.58
29%
3.48
Win to Nil
6%
16.55
11%
8.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 9.5 | 7.3 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.9 | 9.1 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.4 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ NAC Breda vs Heerenveen Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for NAC Breda vs Heerenveen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are NAC Breda and Heerenveen expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for NAC Breda and 1.52 for Heerenveen, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for NAC Breda vs Heerenveen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 66 outings, NAC Breda have picked up 0.88 PPG on a 13W 19D 34L record — L-D-D-L-L across the most recent five.
Heerenveen's form line: 26W 15D 25L from 66 games, 1.41 PPG, last five D-W-L-W-W.
Put side by side, Heerenveen are the form team by 0.53 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against NAC Breda.
Venue Form
On home soil, NAC Breda have posted 1.24 PPG from their last 33 home games (10W 11D 12L).
On the road, Heerenveen have gone 8W 4D 21L from their last 33 away games — 0.85 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.41 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Heerenveen's recent record.
Goals in Recent Form
NAC Breda are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Heerenveen are on 1.52 scored and 1.68 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Heerenveen in 62%.
Last 66 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NAC Breda
Current Season
Heerenveen
Current Season
NAC Breda (Home) vs Heerenveen (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
NAC Breda
Current Season
Heerenveen
Current Season
❓ NAC Breda vs Heerenveen Form FAQs
What form are NAC Breda and Heerenveen in coming into this match?
NAC Breda have gone 13W 19D 34L in their last 66 games (0.88 PPG), while Heerenveen have gone 26W 15D 25L in their last 66 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NAC Breda at home or Heerenveen away?
NAC Breda's home record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NAC Breda at home: 1.24 PPG; Heerenveen away: 0.85 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from August 2024. All of them came in Eredivisie. The most recent was on 11 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 31 Aug 2024, when Heerenveen won Heerenveen 4-0 NAC Breda.
NAC Breda's record when hosting Heerenveen specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
NAC Breda
1
Draws
2
Heerenveen
Recent Meetings
❓ NAC Breda vs Heerenveen H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and Heerenveen?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, NAC Breda have won 1, Heerenveen have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did NAC Breda and Heerenveen last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 May 2026: NAC Breda 2-0 Heerenveen.
Who has won more matches between NAC Breda and Heerenveen?
Heerenveen have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 56% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
Heerenveen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — NAC Breda 61%, Heerenveen 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (NAC Breda) and 73% (Heerenveen). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Heerenveen in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NAC Breda home games / Heerenveen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ NAC Breda vs Heerenveen Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in NAC Breda and Heerenveen matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of NAC Breda's games and 54% of Heerenveen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are NAC Breda and Heerenveen matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46% of NAC Breda's matches and 73% of Heerenveen's.
Do NAC Breda and Heerenveen matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of NAC Breda's recent matches and 79% of Heerenveen's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
NAC Breda cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Heerenveen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
NAC Breda beat Heerenveen 2-0 at Rat Verlegh Stadion, Regular Season - 33, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NAC Breda 1.25 xG and Heerenveen 1.52 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Heerenveen landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NAC Breda attack 0.73 / defence 1.09 against Heerenveen attack 1.07 / defence 1.00, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it NAC Breda 28% | Draw 32% | Heerenveen 40%, with Heerenveen to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual NAC Breda win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NAC Breda 50%, Heerenveen 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NAC Breda's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Heerenveen's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Heerenveen arrived the stronger side — 1.41 PPG against 0.88. Form was overturned, with NAC Breda winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. NAC Breda (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line. Heerenveen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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