Den Bosch 0-0 Telstar – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Den Bosch at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Den Bosch vs Telstar fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Den Bosch and Telstar meet at Stadion De Vliert in Eredivisie, Relegation Round. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 20 May 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Den Bosch's overall Eredivisie record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W L L W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Den Bosch have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadion De Vliert, Den Bosch have gone 2W 4D 4L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Telstar have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: D D L W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Telstar have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Eredivisie this season, Telstar have posted 2W 1D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Den Bosch against 1.40 for Telstar. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 8 meetings, Telstar have the stronger historical record — 5 wins to Den Bosch's 1, with 2 draws in the mix.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 8 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Feb 2025, ended 0–1 with Telstar winning.
It is worth noting that Telstar have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 8 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading & In-Play
Den Bosch — key trading statistics (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
Telstar — key trading statistics (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Den Bosch 50% versus Telstar 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Den Bosch 55% | Telstar 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Den Bosch 1.58 xG and Telstar 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Den Bosch attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Telstar attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.617 / away 1.304. Data: 0 Den Bosch games / 0 Telstar games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Den Bosch 42% | Draw 29% | Telstar 29%. Fair-value odds: Den Bosch 2.38 | Draw 3.45 | Telstar 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Den Bosch are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Den Bosch if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.86 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Den Bosch 50% | Telstar 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Den Bosch vs Telstar | Competition: Eredivisie, Relegation Round | Venue: Stadion De Vliert • Kick-off: Tuesday 20 May 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Den Bosch 42% | Draw 29% | Telstar 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 59% | xG Den Bosch 1.58 / Telstar 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Den Bosch attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Telstar attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.617 / away 1.304 • Poisson stance: Den Bosch (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Den Bosch xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Telstar xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Den Bosch vs Telstar kick off?
Den Bosch vs Telstar kicked off at 19:00 on Tuesday 20 May 2025 at Stadion De Vliert.
What was the final score in Den Bosch vs Telstar?
Den Bosch 0 - 0 Telstar.
Where is Den Bosch vs Telstar being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vliert.
What competition is Den Bosch vs Telstar part of?
Den Bosch vs Telstar is a Relegation Round fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Den Bosch vs Telstar?
Our statistical model gives Den Bosch a 42% chance of winning, Telstar a 29% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Den Bosch the favourite.
Will both teams score in Den Bosch vs Telstar?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Den Bosch and Telstar will score (BTTS).
Will Den Bosch vs Telstar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and Telstar?
Record (8 meetings): Den Bosch 1W | Draws 2 | Telstar 5W.
What form are Den Bosch and Telstar in?
Den Bosch (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-W-D. Telstar (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Den Bosch's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Telstar's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.58. Flip it around — Telstar's attack (0.85x) against Den Bosch's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Den Bosch Win
42%
2.36
29%
3.44
29%
3.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Den Bosch xG
Total xG
2.86
1.27
Telstar xG
2.36
42%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
3.50
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
28%
3.58
21%
4.86
Win to Nil
12%
8.46
6%
16.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 7.3 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 11.6 | 7.4 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.2 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.8 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Den Bosch vs Telstar?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Den Bosch and Telstar expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Den Bosch and 1.27 for Telstar, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Den Bosch vs Telstar?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Den Bosch come into this having played 40 games, going 9W 10D 21L for 0.92 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-D. It's still early in the season for Den Bosch, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Telstar sit at 1.02 PPG from 40 outings (11W 8D 21L), a run that reads D-D-L-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Telstar, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.92 PPG for Den Bosch against 1.02 for Telstar. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Den Bosch's home form reads 4W 6D 10L across 20 games on their own ground, a 0.90 PPG return.
Away from home, Telstar have taken 0.60 points per game from 20 outings (3W 3D 14L). That's a step down from their 1.02 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Telstar's season.
Attack vs Defence
Den Bosch are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Telstar are on 1.25 scored and 1.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Telstar in 60%.
Last 40 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Den Bosch
Early Season
Telstar
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Den Bosch and Telstar in coming into this match?
Den Bosch have gone 9W 10D 21L in their last 40 games (0.92 PPG), while Telstar have gone 11W 8D 21L in their last 40 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Den Bosch at home or Telstar away?
Den Bosch's home record (0.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Den Bosch at home: 0.90 PPG; Telstar away: 0.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Telstar won 1-4 on 17 Nov 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Den Bosch have gone 0W 1D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Telstar — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Den Bosch
3
Draws
6
Telstar
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and Telstar?
From 10 meetings on record, Den Bosch have won 1, Telstar have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Den Bosch and Telstar last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2025, when Telstar 2-1 Den Bosch.
Who has won more matches between Den Bosch and Telstar?
Telstar have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Den Bosch see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches.
Telstar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Den Bosch 60%, Telstar 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Den Bosch) and 45% (Telstar). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Den Bosch have failed to score in 30% of games; Telstar in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Den Bosch home games / Telstar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Den Bosch play Telstar?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Den Bosch's recent matches and 45% of Telstar's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Den Bosch vs Telstar usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Den Bosch's matches and 45% of Telstar's.
Do Den Bosch and Telstar tend to score early?
Den Bosch have had a goal before half-time in 55% of their recent matches, Telstar in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Den Bosch's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion De Vliert, Relegation Round, as Den Bosch and Telstar drew 0-0 in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Den Bosch 1.58 xG and Telstar 1.27 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Den Bosch fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Telstar landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Den Bosch attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Telstar attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Den Bosch 42% | Draw 29% | Telstar 29%, with Den Bosch to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Den Bosch 55%, Telstar 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Den Bosch's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Telstar's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Den Bosch 0.92 PPG, Telstar 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Den Bosch (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line. Telstar (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.85 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.90 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.