Cambuur 1-2 Heerenveen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Heerenveen at 50% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cambuur vs Heerenveen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Cambuur Stadion plays host to Cambuur versus Heerenveen in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Sunday 19 February 2023 at 11:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Cambuur have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 0.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Cambuur, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cambuur's form when playing at home: 1W 0D 9L across 10 games at Cambuur Stadion this term (0.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Heerenveen's overall Eredivisie record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Heerenveen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Heerenveen's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Heerenveen are 0.50 PPG clear of Cambuur in recent Eredivisie fixtures (1.00 vs 0.50). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Both sides have a strong clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Cambuur have seen both teams score in just 10% of their games, Heerenveen in only 20%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from both squads' form records.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Cambuur lead 0W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Nov 2022, ended 1–2 with Heerenveen winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Cambuur half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Heerenveen half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cambuur 53% versus Heerenveen 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cambuur 62% | Heerenveen 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cambuur 0.70 xG and Heerenveen 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cambuur attack 0.550 / defence 1.588 | Heerenveen attack 0.751 / defence 0.850. League average goals — home 1.506 / away 1.161. Cambuur's attack strength of 0.550 is below the league average — the 0.70 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 55 Cambuur games / 55 Heerenveen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cambuur 16% | Draw 33% | Heerenveen 50%. Fair-value odds: Cambuur 6.25 | Draw 3.03 | Heerenveen 2.00. Heerenveen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Heerenveen as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Heerenveen if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.09 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates corroborate: Cambuur 10% | Heerenveen 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cambuur vs Heerenveen | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Cambuur Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Feb 2023, 11:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cambuur 16% | Draw 33% | Heerenveen 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 41% | xG Cambuur 0.70 / Heerenveen 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Cambuur attack 0.550 / def 1.588 | Heerenveen attack 0.751 / def 0.850 | league avg home 1.506 / away 1.161 • Poisson stance: Heerenveen (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.70
Cambuur xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Heerenveen xG
41%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cambuur vs Heerenveen kick off?
Cambuur vs Heerenveen kicked off at 11:15 on Sunday 19 February 2023 at Cambuur Stadion.
What was the final score in Cambuur vs Heerenveen?
Cambuur 1 - 2 Heerenveen.
Where is Cambuur vs Heerenveen being played?
The match is being played at Cambuur Stadion.
What competition is Cambuur vs Heerenveen part of?
Cambuur vs Heerenveen is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Cambuur vs Heerenveen?
Our statistical model gives Cambuur a 16% chance of winning, Heerenveen a 50% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Heerenveen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cambuur vs Heerenveen?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Cambuur and Heerenveen will score (BTTS).
Will Cambuur vs Heerenveen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and Heerenveen?
Record (3 meetings): Cambuur 0W | Draws 1 | Heerenveen 2W.
What form are Cambuur and Heerenveen in?
Cambuur (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-L-D. Heerenveen (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Cambuur's attack rating (0.55) and Heerenveen's defence rating (0.85), the model arrives at 0.70 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Heerenveen's attack (0.75x) against Cambuur's defence (1.59x) — and the away total comes out at 1.39.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.0%), 1-1 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Heerenveen Win
16%
6.16
33%
3.00
50%
1.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.1%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
12.4%
Draw
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.70
Cambuur xG
Total xG
2.09
1.39
Heerenveen xG
6.16
16%
Home win
3.00
33%
Draw
1.98
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.46
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
25%
3.99
49%
2.02
Win to Nil
4%
24.60
25%
4.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.4 | 17.1 | 11.9 | 5.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.1 | 8.4 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 4.2 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cambuur vs Heerenveen?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.6%.
How many goals are Cambuur and Heerenveen expected to score?
The model projects 0.70 expected goals for Cambuur and 1.39 for Heerenveen, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Cambuur vs Heerenveen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Cambuur's recent record stands at 14W 10D 31L from 55 games, a 0.95 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Cambuur is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Heerenveen, meanwhile, have gone 17W 14D 24L across 55 games — 1.18 PPG, with W-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Heerenveen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.95 PPG for Cambuur against 1.18 for Heerenveen. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Cambuur have managed 6W 3D 18L from 27 games — 0.78 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Heerenveen's away record stands at 7W 9D 11L across 27 trips, a 1.11 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cambuur are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.91 conceded per game recently; Heerenveen are on 1.04 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 55 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cambuur
Blended
Heerenveen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cambuur and Heerenveen in coming into this match?
Cambuur have gone 14W 10D 31L in their last 55 games (0.95 PPG), while Heerenveen have gone 17W 14D 24L in their last 55 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cambuur at home or Heerenveen away?
Heerenveen's away record (1.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cambuur at home: 0.78 PPG; Heerenveen away: 1.11 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Heerenveen go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cambuur have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Heerenveen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Cambuur
1
Draws
3
Heerenveen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and Heerenveen?
From 4 meetings on record, Cambuur have won 0, Heerenveen have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cambuur and Heerenveen last play each other?
They last met on 19 February 2023, when Cambuur 1-2 Heerenveen.
Who has won more matches between Cambuur and Heerenveen?
Heerenveen have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
Heerenveen see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cambuur 59%, Heerenveen 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Cambuur) and 37% (Heerenveen).
On the defensive side: Heerenveen in 33%; Cambuur have failed to score in 33% of games; Heerenveen in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cambuur home games / Heerenveen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cambuur play Heerenveen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Cambuur's recent matches and 41% of Heerenveen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cambuur vs Heerenveen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Cambuur's recent games and 37% of Heerenveen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cambuur and Heerenveen tend to score early?
Cambuur have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Heerenveen in 48% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Heerenveen edge out Cambuur 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Heerenveen beat Cambuur 1-2 at Cambuur Stadion, Regular Season - 22, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cambuur 0.70 xG and Heerenveen 1.39 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cambuur attack 0.55 / defence 1.59 against Heerenveen attack 0.75 / defence 0.85, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cambuur 16% | Draw 33% | Heerenveen 50%, with Heerenveen to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cambuur 62%, Heerenveen 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cambuur's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Heerenveen's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cambuur 0.95 PPG, Heerenveen 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Heerenveen win broke the near-deadlock. Heerenveen (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.81 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.