Cambuur 0-3 Feyenoord – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Feyenoord (75%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Cambuur face Feyenoord.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Regular Season - 29 as Cambuur welcome Feyenoord to Cambuur Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 16 April 2023 at 15:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Cambuur have gone 1W 1D 8L from 10 outings — a 0.40 PPG return. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.70 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Cambuur's home record at Cambuur Stadion: 1W 0D 9L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (0.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Feyenoord stand at 8W 2D 0L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
On the road, Feyenoord have gone 7W 3D 0L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Feyenoord are 2.20 PPG ahead (2.60 vs 0.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Feyenoord have the better historical record — 3 wins from 3 previous contests against 0 for Cambuur.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 10 Nov 2022, ended 0–1 with Feyenoord winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Feyenoord have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 3.3 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Cambuur in-play and half-time data (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Feyenoord in-play and half-time data (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cambuur 56% versus Feyenoord 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cambuur 66% | Feyenoord 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cambuur 1.03 xG and Feyenoord 2.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cambuur attack 0.763 / defence 1.453 | Feyenoord attack 1.573 / defence 0.837. League average goals — home 1.611 / away 1.277. Cambuur's attack strength of 0.763 is below the league average — the 1.03 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Feyenoord have an above-average attack strength of 1.573 — the away xG of 2.92 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 62 Cambuur games / 62 Feyenoord games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cambuur 10% | Draw 15% | Feyenoord 75%. Fair-value odds: Cambuur 10.00 | Draw 6.67 | Feyenoord 1.33. The model has a clear lean to Feyenoord (75%) — a 65pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 75% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.95. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 75% — a total xG of 3.95 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.03 / 2.92) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Feyenoord at 75% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.95 combined xG gives a 75% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Cambuur 40% | Feyenoord 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cambuur vs Feyenoord | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Cambuur Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Apr 2023, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cambuur 10% | Draw 15% | Feyenoord 75% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 75% | BTTS 62% | xG Cambuur 1.03 / Feyenoord 2.92 • Poisson strength factors: Cambuur attack 0.763 / def 1.453 | Feyenoord attack 1.573 / def 0.837 | league avg home 1.611 / away 1.277 • Poisson stance: Feyenoord (75%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Cambuur xG
Expected Goals
2.92
Feyenoord xG
62%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
56%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cambuur vs Feyenoord kick off?
Cambuur vs Feyenoord kicked off at 15:45 on Sunday 16 April 2023 at Cambuur Stadion.
What was the final score in Cambuur vs Feyenoord?
Cambuur 0 - 3 Feyenoord.
Where is Cambuur vs Feyenoord being played?
The match is being played at Cambuur Stadion.
What competition is Cambuur vs Feyenoord part of?
Cambuur vs Feyenoord is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Cambuur vs Feyenoord?
Our statistical model gives Cambuur a 10% chance of winning, Feyenoord a 75% chance, and a 15% chance of a draw — making Feyenoord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cambuur vs Feyenoord?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Cambuur and Feyenoord will score (BTTS).
Will Cambuur vs Feyenoord have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 75%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and Feyenoord?
Record (3 meetings): Cambuur 0W | Draws 0 | Feyenoord 3W.
What form are Cambuur and Feyenoord in?
Cambuur (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.70 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Feyenoord (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Cambuur's attack rating (0.76) and Feyenoord's defence rating (0.84), the model arrives at 1.03 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Feyenoord's attack versus Cambuur's defence, projects 2.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.5%. Close behind: 1-3 (8.2%), 0-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Feyenoord Win
10%
10.49
15%
6.46
75%
1.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
8.2%
Away win
1 – 3
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Cambuur xG
Total xG
3.95
2.92
Feyenoord xG
10.49
10%
Home win
6.46
15%
Draw
1.33
75%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
75%
Over 2.5
1.33
25%
Under 2.5
4.00
56%
Over 3.5
1.79
44%
Under 3.5
2.27
36%
Over 4.5
2.78
64%
Under 4.5
1.56
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.61
Clean Sheet
5%
18.49
36%
2.80
Win to Nil
1%
193.97
27%
3.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.9 | 5.6 | 8.2 | 8.0 | 5.8 | 3.4 |
| 1 | 2.0 | 5.8 | 8.5 | 8.2 | 6.0 | 3.5 |
| 2 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 3.1 | 1.8 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cambuur vs Feyenoord?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.5%.
How many goals are Cambuur and Feyenoord expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Cambuur and 2.92 for Feyenoord, a combined total of 3.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Cambuur vs Feyenoord?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 75%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cambuur's recent record stands at 15W 10D 37L from 62 games, a 0.89 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-L in the last five.
Feyenoord, meanwhile, have gone 42W 12D 8L across 62 games — 2.23 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Feyenoord by 1.34 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cambuur heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Cambuur have managed 7W 3D 21L from 31 games — 0.77 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Feyenoord's away record stands at 21W 5D 5L across 31 trips, a 2.19 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Feyenoord come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Cambuur are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 2.02 conceded per game recently; Feyenoord are on 2.31 scored and 0.98 conceded.
Defensively: Feyenoord in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cambuur
Current Season
Feyenoord
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cambuur and Feyenoord in coming into this match?
Cambuur have gone 15W 10D 37L in their last 62 games (0.89 PPG), while Feyenoord have gone 42W 12D 8L in their last 62 (2.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cambuur at home or Feyenoord away?
Feyenoord's away record (2.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cambuur at home: 0.77 PPG; Feyenoord away: 2.19 PPG.
Have Cambuur or Feyenoord been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cambuur have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Feyenoord in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cambuur and Feyenoord runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. The two were last together as recently as 23 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Feyenoord have taken the last 5 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Apr 2023, when Feyenoord won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cambuur's record when hosting Feyenoord specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
0
Cambuur
0
Draws
5
Feyenoord
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and Feyenoord?
From 5 meetings on record, Cambuur have won 0, Feyenoord have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cambuur and Feyenoord last play each other?
They last met on 23 August 2026, when Cambuur 2-5 Feyenoord.
Who has won more matches between Cambuur and Feyenoord?
Feyenoord have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Feyenoord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Cambuur at 64%, Feyenoord at 68%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Cambuur and 68% for Feyenoord. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Feyenoord in 32%; Cambuur have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cambuur home games / Feyenoord away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cambuur play Feyenoord?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Cambuur's games and 68% of Feyenoord's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cambuur vs Feyenoord usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Cambuur's matches and 68% of Feyenoord's.
Do Cambuur and Feyenoord tend to score early?
Cambuur have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Feyenoord in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Feyenoord run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Cambuur.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Feyenoord beat Cambuur 0-3 at Cambuur Stadion, Regular Season - 29, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cambuur 1.03 xG and Feyenoord 2.92 xG, a combined 3.95. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Cambuur fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cambuur attack 0.76 / defence 1.45 against Feyenoord attack 1.57 / defence 0.84, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cambuur 10% | Draw 15% | Feyenoord 75%, with Feyenoord to win its most likely call at 75%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 75%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 56% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cambuur 66%, Feyenoord 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cambuur's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Feyenoord's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Feyenoord arrived the stronger side — 2.23 PPG against 0.89. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Cambuur (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Feyenoord (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.