AZ Alkmaar 1-1 Willem II – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AZ Alkmaar at 70% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
AFAS Stadion plays host to AZ Alkmaar versus Willem II in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Friday 11 September 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
AZ Alkmaar's overall Eredivisie record this term: 6W 4D 0L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. AZ Alkmaar have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
AZ Alkmaar's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at AFAS Stadion this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Willem II have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Willem II have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Willem II's form when playing away from home: 8W 1D 1L across 10 road games this term (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 2.50 exceeds their overall 1.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form favours the hosts. AZ Alkmaar's 2.20 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Willem II's 1.40 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for AZ Alkmaar, 1 for Willem II and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.5 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 2 Feb 2025, ended 2–0 with AZ Alkmaar winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
AZ Alkmaar half-time and goal-timing data (39 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Willem II half-time and goal-timing data (39 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — AZ Alkmaar 64% and Willem II 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AZ Alkmaar 64% | Willem II 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AZ Alkmaar 2.93 xG and Willem II 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AZ Alkmaar attack 1.324 / defence 0.848 | Willem II attack 0.801 / defence 1.318. League average goals — home 1.678 / away 1.930. AZ Alkmaar carry an above-average attack strength of 1.324 — their λ of 2.93 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Willem II bring a strong defensive rating of 1.318 — this is suppressing AZ Alkmaar's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 39 AZ Alkmaar games / 4 Willem II games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AZ Alkmaar 70% | Draw 15% | Willem II 14%. Fair-value odds: AZ Alkmaar 1.43 | Draw 6.67 | Willem II 7.14. The model has a clear lean to AZ Alkmaar (70%) — a 56pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 79% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 4.24. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 79% — a total xG of 4.24 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (2.93 / 1.31) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AZ Alkmaar at 70% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 4.24 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 79% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 69% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: AZ Alkmaar 60% | Willem II 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: AFAS Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 11 Sep 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AZ Alkmaar 70% | Draw 15% | Willem II 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 79% | BTTS 69% | xG AZ Alkmaar 2.93 / Willem II 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: AZ Alkmaar attack 1.324 / def 0.848 | Willem II attack 0.801 / def 1.318 | league avg home 1.678 / away 1.930 • Poisson stance: AZ Alkmaar (70%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.93
AZ Alkmaar xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Willem II xG
69%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
79%
Over 2.5
61%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II kick off?
AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 11 September 2026 at AFAS Stadion.
What was the final score in AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II?
AZ Alkmaar 1 - 1 Willem II.
Where is AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II being played?
The match is being played at AFAS Stadion.
What competition is AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II part of?
AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II?
Our statistical model gives AZ Alkmaar a 70% chance of winning, Willem II a 14% chance, and a 15% chance of a draw — making AZ Alkmaar the favourite.
Will both teams score in AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both AZ Alkmaar and Willem II will score (BTTS).
Will AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 79%.
What is the head-to-head record between AZ Alkmaar and Willem II?
Record (4 meetings): AZ Alkmaar 2W | Draws 1 | Willem II 1W.
What form are AZ Alkmaar and Willem II in?
AZ Alkmaar (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Willem II (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
AZ Alkmaar's attacking strength (1.32x league average) is weighed against Willem II's defensive record (1.32x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.93. Flip it around — Willem II's attack (0.80x) against AZ Alkmaar's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from 39/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 8.1%. Close behind: 3-1 (7.9%), 1-1 (6.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 22% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
AZ Alkmaar Win
70%
1.42
15%
6.58
14%
6.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.9%
Home win
2 – 0
6.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.93
AZ Alkmaar xG
Total xG
4.24
1.31
Willem II xG
1.42
70%
Home win
6.58
15%
Draw
6.98
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
79%
Over 2.5
1.27
21%
Under 2.5
4.76
61%
Over 3.5
1.64
39%
Under 3.5
2.56
42%
Over 4.5
2.38
58%
Under 4.5
1.72
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.24
Clean Sheet
27%
3.71
5%
18.71
Win to Nil
19%
5.26
1%
130.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 4.2 | 5.5 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.1 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 7.9 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 4.4 | 5.8 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.6 | 3.4 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.1%.
How many goals are AZ Alkmaar and Willem II expected to score?
The model projects 2.93 expected goals for AZ Alkmaar and 1.31 for Willem II, a combined total of 4.24.
How confident is the prediction model for AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
AZ Alkmaar's recent record stands at 19W 10D 10L from 39 games, a 1.72 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for AZ Alkmaar, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Willem II, meanwhile, have gone 19W 8D 12L across 39 games — 1.67 PPG, with W-L-L-D-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Willem II, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.72 PPG for AZ Alkmaar against 1.67 for Willem II. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, AZ Alkmaar have managed 9W 7D 2L from 18 games — 1.89 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Willem II's away record stands at 11W 2D 5L across 18 trips, a 1.94 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
AZ Alkmaar are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Willem II are on 1.54 scored and 1.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: AZ Alkmaar have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 39 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AZ Alkmaar
Early Season
Willem II
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AZ Alkmaar and Willem II in coming into this match?
AZ Alkmaar have gone 19W 10D 10L in their last 39 games (1.72 PPG), while Willem II have gone 19W 8D 12L in their last 39 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AZ Alkmaar at home or Willem II away?
Willem II's away record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AZ Alkmaar at home: 1.89 PPG; Willem II away: 1.94 PPG.
Have AZ Alkmaar or Willem II been keeping clean sheets recently?
AZ Alkmaar have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Willem II in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. The two were last together as recently as 11 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AZ Alkmaar won 4-1 on 18 Dec 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AZ Alkmaar have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Willem II — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
2
AZ Alkmaar
2
Draws
1
Willem II
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AZ Alkmaar and Willem II?
From 5 meetings on record, AZ Alkmaar have won 2, Willem II have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did AZ Alkmaar and Willem II last play each other?
They last met on 11 September 2026, when AZ Alkmaar 1-1 Willem II.
Who has won more matches between AZ Alkmaar and Willem II?
AZ Alkmaar have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
AZ Alkmaar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AZ Alkmaar 72%, Willem II 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 72% for AZ Alkmaar and 67% for Willem II. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 61% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Willem II in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AZ Alkmaar home games / Willem II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AZ Alkmaar play Willem II?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of AZ Alkmaar's games and 56% of Willem II's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of AZ Alkmaar's matches and 67% of Willem II's.
Do AZ Alkmaar and Willem II tend to score early?
AZ Alkmaar have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Willem II in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
AZ Alkmaar and Willem II share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at AFAS Stadion, Regular Season - 6, as AZ Alkmaar and Willem II drew 1-1 in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AZ Alkmaar 2.93 xG and Willem II 1.31 xG, a combined 4.24. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. AZ Alkmaar fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AZ Alkmaar attack 1.32 / defence 0.85 against Willem II attack 0.80 / defence 1.32, drawn from 39/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AZ Alkmaar 70% | Draw 15% | Willem II 14%, with AZ Alkmaar to win its most likely call at 70%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 79%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 61% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AZ Alkmaar 64%, Willem II 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AZ Alkmaar's trading profile (39 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Willem II's trading profile (39 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AZ Alkmaar 1.72 PPG, Willem II 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. AZ Alkmaar (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.33 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.