AZ Alkmaar 2-2 Waalwijk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AZ Alkmaar at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this AZ Alkmaar vs Waalwijk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
AFAS Stadion plays host to AZ Alkmaar versus Waalwijk in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off: Tuesday 1 April 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
AZ Alkmaar's overall Eredivisie record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W W L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for AZ Alkmaar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AZ Alkmaar's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at AFAS Stadion this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Waalwijk (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Eredivisie outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: W L L L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Waalwijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eredivisie this season, Waalwijk have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. AZ Alkmaar's 1.60 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Waalwijk's 1.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — AZ Alkmaar have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Waalwijk in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 7 meetings: AZ Alkmaar 4W, Waalwijk 3W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.4 goals per game across 7 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2024, ended 3–0 with AZ Alkmaar winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
AZ Alkmaar half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games).
Waalwijk half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AZ Alkmaar 53% versus Waalwijk 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AZ Alkmaar 65% | Waalwijk 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AZ Alkmaar 1.86 xG and Waalwijk 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AZ Alkmaar attack 1.005 / defence 0.812 | Waalwijk attack 0.903 / defence 1.171. League average goals — home 1.583 / away 1.333. Data: 60 AZ Alkmaar games / 60 Waalwijk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AZ Alkmaar 58% | Draw 23% | Waalwijk 19%. Fair-value odds: AZ Alkmaar 1.72 | Draw 4.35 | Waalwijk 5.26. The model has a clear lean to AZ Alkmaar (58%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AZ Alkmaar at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.84 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: AZ Alkmaar 60% | Waalwijk 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AZ Alkmaar vs Waalwijk | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: AFAS Stadion • Kick-off: Tuesday 1 Apr 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AZ Alkmaar 58% | Draw 23% | Waalwijk 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 53% | xG AZ Alkmaar 1.86 / Waalwijk 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: AZ Alkmaar attack 1.005 / def 0.812 | Waalwijk attack 0.903 / def 1.171 | league avg home 1.583 / away 1.333 • Poisson stance: AZ Alkmaar (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
AZ Alkmaar xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Waalwijk xG
53%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AZ Alkmaar vs Waalwijk kick off?
AZ Alkmaar vs Waalwijk kicked off at 19:00 on Tuesday 1 April 2025 at AFAS Stadion.
What was the final score in AZ Alkmaar vs Waalwijk?
AZ Alkmaar 2 - 2 Waalwijk.
Where is AZ Alkmaar vs Waalwijk being played?
The match is being played at AFAS Stadion.
What competition is AZ Alkmaar vs Waalwijk part of?
AZ Alkmaar vs Waalwijk is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win AZ Alkmaar vs Waalwijk?
Our statistical model gives AZ Alkmaar a 58% chance of winning, Waalwijk a 19% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making AZ Alkmaar the favourite.
Will both teams score in AZ Alkmaar vs Waalwijk?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both AZ Alkmaar and Waalwijk will score (BTTS).
Will AZ Alkmaar vs Waalwijk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between AZ Alkmaar and Waalwijk?
Record (7 meetings): AZ Alkmaar 4W | Draws 0 | Waalwijk 3W.
What form are AZ Alkmaar and Waalwijk in?
AZ Alkmaar (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-D-D. Waalwijk (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
AZ Alkmaar's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Waalwijk's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.86. Flip it around — Waalwijk's attack (0.90x) against AZ Alkmaar's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.1%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AZ Alkmaar Win
58%
1.73
23%
4.34
19%
5.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
AZ Alkmaar xG
Total xG
2.84
0.98
Waalwijk xG
1.73
58%
Home win
4.34
23%
Draw
5.23
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
16%
6.44
Win to Nil
22%
4.59
3%
33.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.9 | 10.6 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AZ Alkmaar vs Waalwijk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are AZ Alkmaar and Waalwijk expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for AZ Alkmaar and 0.98 for Waalwijk, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for AZ Alkmaar vs Waalwijk?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
AZ Alkmaar come into this having played 60 games, going 32W 14D 14L for 1.83 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-D-D. The sample for AZ Alkmaar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Waalwijk sit at 0.77 PPG from 60 outings (11W 13D 36L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Waalwijk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AZ Alkmaar carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.06 PPG clear of Waalwijk — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
AZ Alkmaar's home form reads 18W 4D 7L across 29 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Waalwijk have taken 0.59 points per game from 29 outings (4W 5D 20L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AZ Alkmaar come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
AZ Alkmaar are averaging 1.92 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Waalwijk are on 1.17 scored and 1.83 conceded.
Defensively: AZ Alkmaar have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AZ Alkmaar
Blended
Waalwijk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AZ Alkmaar and Waalwijk in coming into this match?
AZ Alkmaar have gone 32W 14D 14L in their last 60 games (1.83 PPG), while Waalwijk have gone 11W 13D 36L in their last 60 (0.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AZ Alkmaar at home or Waalwijk away?
AZ Alkmaar's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AZ Alkmaar at home: 2.00 PPG; Waalwijk away: 0.59 PPG.
Have AZ Alkmaar or Waalwijk been keeping clean sheets recently?
AZ Alkmaar have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Waalwijk in 13%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AZ Alkmaar won 3-0 on 23 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AZ Alkmaar have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Waalwijk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
AZ Alkmaar
1
Draws
3
Waalwijk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AZ Alkmaar and Waalwijk?
From 8 meetings on record, AZ Alkmaar have won 4, Waalwijk have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did AZ Alkmaar and Waalwijk last play each other?
They last met on 1 April 2025, when AZ Alkmaar 2-2 Waalwijk.
Who has won more matches between AZ Alkmaar and Waalwijk?
AZ Alkmaar have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
AZ Alkmaar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AZ Alkmaar 52%, Waalwijk 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 66% for AZ Alkmaar and 55% for Waalwijk. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 34% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: AZ Alkmaar keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Waalwijk in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AZ Alkmaar home games / Waalwijk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AZ Alkmaar play Waalwijk?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of AZ Alkmaar's recent matches and 55% of Waalwijk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AZ Alkmaar vs Waalwijk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 66% of AZ Alkmaar's matches and 55% of Waalwijk's.
Do AZ Alkmaar and Waalwijk tend to score early?
AZ Alkmaar have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Waalwijk in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
AZ Alkmaar and Waalwijk share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AZ Alkmaar and Waalwijk finished level at 2-2 at AFAS Stadion, Regular Season - 25, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AZ Alkmaar 1.86 xG and Waalwijk 0.98 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Waalwijk outscored their 0.98 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AZ Alkmaar attack 1.00 / defence 0.81 against Waalwijk attack 0.90 / defence 1.17, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AZ Alkmaar 58% | Draw 23% | Waalwijk 19%, with AZ Alkmaar to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AZ Alkmaar 65%, Waalwijk 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AZ Alkmaar's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Waalwijk's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, AZ Alkmaar arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 0.77. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. AZ Alkmaar (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Waalwijk (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.