AZ Alkmaar 1-1 Almere City FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours AZ Alkmaar (53%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as AZ Alkmaar face Almere City FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
AZ Alkmaar and Almere City FC meet at AFAS Stadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 34. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 18 May 2025 at 13:30 UTC.
Form
AZ Alkmaar (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Eredivisie fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at AFAS Stadion, AZ Alkmaar have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at AFAS Stadion. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — AZ Alkmaar are significantly better at AFAS Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Almere City FC's overall Eredivisie record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Almere City FC have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form ledger tips toward AZ Alkmaar. A 0.60 PPG lead over Almere City FC (1.30 vs 0.70) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — AZ Alkmaar lead 2W to 0W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Aug 2024, ended 1–0 with AZ Alkmaar winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
AZ Alkmaar — key trading statistics (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Almere City FC — key trading statistics (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AZ Alkmaar 52% versus Almere City FC 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AZ Alkmaar 64% | Almere City FC 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AZ Alkmaar 1.53 xG and Almere City FC 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AZ Alkmaar attack 0.939 / defence 0.830 | Almere City FC attack 0.735 / defence 1.016. League average goals — home 1.601 / away 1.326. Data: 67 AZ Alkmaar games / 67 Almere City FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AZ Alkmaar 53% | Draw 29% | Almere City FC 18%. Fair-value odds: AZ Alkmaar 1.89 | Draw 3.45 | Almere City FC 5.56. AZ Alkmaar hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates AZ Alkmaar as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AZ Alkmaar if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.34 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: AZ Alkmaar 40% | Almere City FC 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AZ Alkmaar vs Almere City FC | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: AFAS Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 18 May 2025, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AZ Alkmaar 53% | Draw 29% | Almere City FC 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 45% | xG AZ Alkmaar 1.53 / Almere City FC 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: AZ Alkmaar attack 0.939 / def 0.830 | Almere City FC attack 0.735 / def 1.016 | league avg home 1.601 / away 1.326 • Poisson stance: AZ Alkmaar (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
AZ Alkmaar xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Almere City FC xG
45%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AZ Alkmaar vs Almere City FC kick off?
AZ Alkmaar vs Almere City FC kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 18 May 2025 at AFAS Stadion.
What was the final score in AZ Alkmaar vs Almere City FC?
AZ Alkmaar 1 - 1 Almere City FC.
Where is AZ Alkmaar vs Almere City FC being played?
The match is being played at AFAS Stadion.
What competition is AZ Alkmaar vs Almere City FC part of?
AZ Alkmaar vs Almere City FC is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win AZ Alkmaar vs Almere City FC?
Our statistical model gives AZ Alkmaar a 53% chance of winning, Almere City FC a 18% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making AZ Alkmaar the favourite.
Will both teams score in AZ Alkmaar vs Almere City FC?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both AZ Alkmaar and Almere City FC will score (BTTS).
Will AZ Alkmaar vs Almere City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between AZ Alkmaar and Almere City FC?
Record (3 meetings): AZ Alkmaar 2W | Draws 1 | Almere City FC 0W.
What form are AZ Alkmaar and Almere City FC in?
AZ Alkmaar (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-W-W. Almere City FC (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from AZ Alkmaar's attack rating (0.94) and Almere City FC's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.53 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Almere City FC's attack (0.73x) against AZ Alkmaar's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from 67/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.2%), 2-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AZ Alkmaar Win
53%
1.89
29%
3.48
18%
5.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
AZ Alkmaar xG
Total xG
2.34
0.81
Almere City FC xG
1.89
53%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
5.43
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
45%
2.25
22%
4.60
Win to Nil
24%
4.25
4%
25.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.8 | 11.9 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 9.1 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.7 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AZ Alkmaar vs Almere City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are AZ Alkmaar and Almere City FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for AZ Alkmaar and 0.81 for Almere City FC, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for AZ Alkmaar vs Almere City FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
AZ Alkmaar's recent record stands at 35W 16D 16L from 67 games, a 1.81 PPG return, with L-D-W-W-W in the last five.
Almere City FC, meanwhile, have gone 11W 22D 34L across 67 games — 0.82 PPG, with L-L-D-L-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours AZ Alkmaar by 0.99 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Almere City FC heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, AZ Alkmaar have managed 19W 6D 8L from 33 games — 1.91 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Almere City FC's away record stands at 6W 10D 17L across 33 trips, a 0.85 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AZ Alkmaar come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
AZ Alkmaar are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Almere City FC are on 0.82 scored and 1.82 conceded.
Defensively: AZ Alkmaar have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 67 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AZ Alkmaar
Current Season
Almere City FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AZ Alkmaar and Almere City FC in coming into this match?
AZ Alkmaar have gone 35W 16D 16L in their last 67 games (1.81 PPG), while Almere City FC have gone 11W 22D 34L in their last 67 (0.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AZ Alkmaar at home or Almere City FC away?
AZ Alkmaar's home record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AZ Alkmaar at home: 1.91 PPG; Almere City FC away: 0.85 PPG.
Have AZ Alkmaar or Almere City FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
AZ Alkmaar have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Almere City FC in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AZ Alkmaar won 4-1 on 9 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AZ Alkmaar have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Almere City FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
AZ Alkmaar
2
Draws
0
Almere City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AZ Alkmaar and Almere City FC?
From 4 meetings on record, AZ Alkmaar have won 2, Almere City FC have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did AZ Alkmaar and Almere City FC last play each other?
They last met on 18 May 2025, when AZ Alkmaar 1-1 Almere City FC.
Who has won more matches between AZ Alkmaar and Almere City FC?
AZ Alkmaar have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
AZ Alkmaar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AZ Alkmaar 52%, Almere City FC 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (AZ Alkmaar) and 48% (Almere City FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: AZ Alkmaar keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Almere City FC in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AZ Alkmaar home games / Almere City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AZ Alkmaar play Almere City FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of AZ Alkmaar's recent matches and 39% of Almere City FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AZ Alkmaar vs Almere City FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of AZ Alkmaar's matches and 48% of Almere City FC's.
Do AZ Alkmaar and Almere City FC tend to score early?
AZ Alkmaar have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Almere City FC in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
AZ Alkmaar and Almere City FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AZ Alkmaar and Almere City FC finished level at 1-1 at AFAS Stadion, Regular Season - 34, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AZ Alkmaar 1.53 xG and Almere City FC 0.81 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AZ Alkmaar attack 0.94 / defence 0.83 against Almere City FC attack 0.73 / defence 1.02, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AZ Alkmaar 53% | Draw 29% | Almere City FC 18%, with AZ Alkmaar to win its most likely call at 53%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AZ Alkmaar 64%, Almere City FC 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AZ Alkmaar's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Almere City FC's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, AZ Alkmaar arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 0.82. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. AZ Alkmaar (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.12 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.