Willem II 3-2 Telstar – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Willem II at 73% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Willem II vs Telstar encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Koning Willem II Stadion plays host to Willem II versus Telstar in Eerste Divisie (matchday 38). Kick-off: Friday 10 May 2024 at 20:00 UK time.
Current Form
Willem II's record over their last 10 games: 5W 4D 1L (1.90 PPG). Last five: D W D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Willem II's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across their last 10 home games (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Telstar (all games): 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 — 1.20 points per game. Last five: W L L D D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.70. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
When travelling, Telstar have posted 1W 2D 7L from their last 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Form favours the hosts. Willem II's 1.90 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Telstar's 1.20 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Willem II edge it 2 wins to 0, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 24 Nov 2023, ended Willem II 5–1 Telstar — a Willem II win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Willem II goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 75 games, 37 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 62%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games).
Telstar goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 75 games, 37 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 45%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Willem II 63% versus Telstar 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Willem II 57% | Telstar 48%). Note also that Telstar surrender HT leads in 45% of cases while Willem II recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 62% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Willem II 2.50 xG and Telstar 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Willem II attack 1.264 / defence 0.834 | Telstar attack 0.740 / defence 1.201. League average goals — home 1.650 / away 1.364. Willem II carry an above-average attack rating of 1.264 — their 2.50 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Telstar's defence rating of 1.201 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Willem II's projected output up. Telstar's attack rating of 0.740 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.84. Data: built from Willem II's last 75 games and Telstar's last 75.
Result probabilities: Willem II 73% | Draw 18% | Telstar 9%. Fair-value odds: Willem II 1.38 | Draw 5.54 | Telstar 10.60. The model has a clear lean to Willem II (73%) — a 55pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 3.35. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.35 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Willem II as the most likely outcome at 73% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.35 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Willem II's last 10 home games and Telstar's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Willem II 70% (last 10 home games) | Telstar 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Willem II vs Telstar | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 38 | Venue: Koning Willem II Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 10 May 2024 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Willem II 73% | Draw 18% | Telstar 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% (Under 35%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Willem II 2.50 / Telstar 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Willem II attack 1.264 / def 0.834 | Telstar attack 0.740 / def 1.201 | league avg home 1.650 / away 1.364 • Poisson stance: Willem II (73%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.50
Willem II xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Telstar xG
53%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Willem II vs Telstar FAQs
What time does Willem II vs Telstar kick off?
Willem II vs Telstar kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Friday 10 May 2024 at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What was the final score in Willem II vs Telstar?
Willem II 3 - 2 Telstar.
Where is Willem II vs Telstar being played?
The match is being played at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What competition is Willem II vs Telstar part of?
Willem II vs Telstar is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 38) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Willem II vs Telstar?
Our statistical model gives Willem II a 73% chance of winning, Telstar a 9% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Willem II the favourite.
Will both teams score in Willem II vs Telstar?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Willem II and Telstar will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Willem II vs Telstar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Willem II's attack rating (1.26) and Telstar's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 2.50 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Telstar's attack (0.74x) against Willem II's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 0.84.
These ratings are built from Willem II's last 75 games and Telstar's last 75 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 3-0 (9.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Willem II Win
73%
1.38
18%
5.54
9%
10.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
3 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.50
Willem II xG
Total xG
3.35
0.84
Telstar xG
1.38
73%
Home win
5.54
18%
Draw
10.60
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
43%
2.32
8%
12.24
Win to Nil
31%
3.20
1%
129.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.8 | 7.4 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.3 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.2 | 7.8 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 5.8 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Willem II vs Telstar Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Willem II vs Telstar?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Willem II and Telstar expected to score?
The model projects 2.50 expected goals for Willem II and 0.84 for Telstar, a combined total of 3.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Willem II vs Telstar?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 73%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Willem II's recent record stands at 41W 21D 13L from 75 games, a 1.92 PPG return, with D-W-D-D-D in the last five.
Telstar, meanwhile, have gone 23W 19D 33L across 75 games — 1.17 PPG, with W-L-L-D-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Willem II by 0.75 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Telstar heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Willem II have managed 26W 5D 6L from their last 37 home games — 2.24 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Telstar's away record stands at 8W 9D 20L across their last 37 away games, a 0.89 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Willem II come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Willem II are averaging 1.92 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Telstar are on 1.12 scored and 1.56 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Willem II have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 75 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Willem II
Current Season
Telstar
Current Season
Willem II (Home) vs Telstar (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Willem II
Current Season
Telstar
Current Season
❓ Willem II vs Telstar Form FAQs
What form are Willem II and Telstar in coming into this match?
Willem II have gone 41W 21D 13L in their last 75 games (1.92 PPG), while Telstar have gone 23W 19D 33L in their last 75 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Willem II at home or Telstar away?
Willem II's home record (2.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Willem II at home: 2.24 PPG; Telstar away: 0.89 PPG.
Have Willem II or Telstar been keeping clean sheets recently?
Willem II have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Telstar in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2022 — enough to show some patterns. They cover more than one competition — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie. The most recent in our data was on 1 June 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Willem II won Telstar 1-5 Willem II on 24 Nov 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Willem II have gone 2W 0D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Telstar — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Willem II
2
Draws
1
Telstar
Recent Meetings
❓ Willem II vs Telstar H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and Telstar?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Willem II have won 3, Telstar have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Willem II and Telstar last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 June 2025: Willem II 1-3 Telstar.
Who has won more matches between Willem II and Telstar?
Willem II have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Telstar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Willem II 65%, Telstar 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 70% (Willem II) and 43% (Telstar). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Willem II keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Telstar in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Willem II home games / Telstar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Willem II vs Telstar Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Willem II and Telstar matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Willem II's games and 46% of Telstar's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Willem II and Telstar matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Willem II's matches and 43% of Telstar's.
Do Willem II and Telstar matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 81% of Willem II's recent matches and 70% of Telstar's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Willem II edge out Telstar 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Willem II beat Telstar 3-2 at Koning Willem II Stadion, Regular Season - 38, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Willem II 2.50 xG and Telstar 0.84 xG, a combined 3.35. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Telstar outscored their 0.84 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Willem II attack 1.26 / defence 0.83 against Telstar attack 0.74 / defence 1.20, drawn from 75/75 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Willem II 73% | Draw 18% | Telstar 9%, with Willem II to win its most likely call at 73%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Willem II 57%, Telstar 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Willem II's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Telstar's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Willem II arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.17. Form held, and they took the win. Willem II (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.16 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Telstar (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.84 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.68 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More Eerste Divisie fixtures — matchday 38
All Eerste Divisie fixtures →
More Dutch football predictions →