Feyenoord 1-1 Willem II – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Feyenoord at 73%, yet other data sources diverge — this Feyenoord vs Willem II fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Willem II make the trip to Stadion Feijenoord to face Feyenoord in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 1. The match kicks off on Saturday 10 August 2024 at 15:30 UTC.
Form
Feyenoord (all games): 9W 1D 0L across 10 Eredivisie fixtures this term — 2.80 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 3.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Feyenoord haven't played a Eredivisie game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Feyenoord's form when playing at home: 8W 2D 0L across 10 games at Stadion Feijenoord this term (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 3.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Feijenoord. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Willem II's overall Eredivisie record this term: 6W 4D 0L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: W D D D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Willem II haven't played a Eredivisie game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
When travelling in Eredivisie this season, Willem II have posted 5W 4D 1L from 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. Feyenoord's 2.80 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Willem II's 2.20 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Feyenoord lead 2W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 2 Apr 2022, ended 2–0 with Feyenoord winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Feyenoord goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 56%; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Willem II goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Feyenoord 50% versus Willem II 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Feyenoord 71% | Willem II 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Feyenoord 2.73 xG and Willem II 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Feyenoord attack 1.288 / defence 0.787 | Willem II attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.844 / away 1.475. Feyenoord carry an above-average attack strength of 1.288 — their λ of 2.73 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Feyenoord's defence rating of 0.787 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 34 Feyenoord games / 0 Willem II games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Feyenoord 73% | Draw 17% | Willem II 10%. Fair-value odds: Feyenoord 1.37 | Draw 5.88 | Willem II 10.00. The model has a clear lean to Feyenoord (73%) — a 63pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.72. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.72 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (2.73 / 0.99) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Feyenoord as the most likely outcome at 73% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.72 combined xG gives a 72% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates are neutral: Feyenoord 30% | Willem II 60%.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Feyenoord vs Willem II | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stadion Feijenoord • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Aug 2024, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Feyenoord 73% | Draw 17% | Willem II 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 60% | xG Feyenoord 2.73 / Willem II 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Feyenoord attack 1.288 / def 0.787 | Willem II attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.844 / away 1.475 • Poisson stance: Feyenoord (73%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.73
Feyenoord xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Willem II xG
60%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Feyenoord vs Willem II kick off?
Feyenoord vs Willem II kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 10 August 2024 at Stadion Feijenoord.
What was the final score in Feyenoord vs Willem II?
Feyenoord 1 - 1 Willem II.
Where is Feyenoord vs Willem II being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Feijenoord.
What competition is Feyenoord vs Willem II part of?
Feyenoord vs Willem II is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Feyenoord vs Willem II?
Our statistical model gives Feyenoord a 73% chance of winning, Willem II a 10% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Feyenoord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Feyenoord vs Willem II?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Feyenoord and Willem II will score (BTTS).
Will Feyenoord vs Willem II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between Feyenoord and Willem II?
Record (2 meetings): Feyenoord 2W | Draws 0 | Willem II 0W.
What form are Feyenoord and Willem II in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Feyenoord (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 3.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Feyenoord's attack rating (1.29) and Willem II's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 2.73 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Willem II's attack (0.85x) against Feyenoord's defence (0.79x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from 34/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 3-0 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Feyenoord Win
73%
1.37
17%
5.98
10%
9.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
3 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.73
Feyenoord xG
Total xG
3.72
0.99
Willem II xG
1.37
73%
Home win
5.98
17%
Draw
9.83
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
51%
Over 3.5
1.96
49%
Under 3.5
2.04
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.47
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
7%
15.35
Win to Nil
27%
3.67
1%
150.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 6.6 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 8.9 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.2 | 8.1 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Feyenoord vs Willem II?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.1%.
How many goals are Feyenoord and Willem II expected to score?
The model projects 2.73 expected goals for Feyenoord and 0.99 for Willem II, a combined total of 3.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Feyenoord vs Willem II?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 73%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Feyenoord's recent record stands at 26W 6D 2L from 34 games, a 2.47 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five. Feyenoord haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Willem II, meanwhile, have gone 22W 8D 4L across 34 games — 2.18 PPG, with W-D-D-D-W in their last five. Willem II haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.47 PPG for Feyenoord against 2.18 for Willem II. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Feyenoord have managed 13W 3D 1L from 17 games — 2.47 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Willem II's away record stands at 9W 5D 3L across 17 trips, a 1.88 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Feyenoord come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Feyenoord are averaging 2.71 goals scored and 0.76 conceded per game recently; Willem II are on 2.15 scored and 0.88 conceded. Feyenoord's scoring rate against Willem II's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Willem II in 65%.
Defensively: Feyenoord have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Feyenoord
Pre-Season
Willem II
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Feyenoord and Willem II in coming into this match?
Feyenoord have gone 26W 6D 2L in their last 34 games (2.47 PPG), while Willem II have gone 22W 8D 4L in their last 34 (2.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Feyenoord at home or Willem II away?
Feyenoord's home record (2.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Feyenoord at home: 2.47 PPG; Willem II away: 1.88 PPG.
Have Feyenoord or Willem II been keeping clean sheets recently?
Feyenoord have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Willem II in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Feyenoord won 0-4 on 15 Aug 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Feyenoord have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Willem II — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Feyenoord
2
Draws
0
Willem II
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Feyenoord and Willem II?
From 4 meetings on record, Feyenoord have won 2, Willem II have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Feyenoord and Willem II last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2025, when Willem II 1-1 Feyenoord.
Who has won more matches between Feyenoord and Willem II?
Feyenoord have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Feyenoord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Feyenoord 41%, Willem II 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Feyenoord) and 29% (Willem II).
On the defensive side: Feyenoord keep a clean sheet in 59% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Feyenoord home games / Willem II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Feyenoord play Willem II?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Feyenoord's recent matches and 53% of Willem II's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Feyenoord vs Willem II usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 71% of Feyenoord's recent games and 29% of Willem II's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Feyenoord and Willem II tend to score early?
Feyenoord have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Willem II in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Feyenoord and Willem II share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Feijenoord, Regular Season - 1, as Feyenoord and Willem II drew 1-1 in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Feyenoord 2.73 xG and Willem II 0.99 xG, a combined 3.72. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Feyenoord fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Feyenoord attack 1.29 / defence 0.79 against Willem II attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 34/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Feyenoord 73% | Draw 17% | Willem II 10%, with Feyenoord to win its most likely call at 73%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 51% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Feyenoord 71%, Willem II 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Feyenoord's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Willem II's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Feyenoord 2.47 PPG, Willem II 2.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Feyenoord (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 3.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Willem II (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.82 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.