Willem II 0-1 Cambuur – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Cambuur (44%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Willem II face Cambuur.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Willem II host Cambuur at Koning Willem II Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 12 December 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Willem II — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D D W L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Willem II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Willem II's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Koning Willem II Stadion this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Cambuur have recorded 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Cambuur, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cambuur away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Cambuur — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.10 vs 1.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Willem II have won 0, Cambuur 2, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Sep 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Willem II trading profile (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Cambuur trading profile (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Willem II 61% versus Cambuur 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Willem II 51% | Cambuur 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Willem II 1.32 xG and Cambuur 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Willem II attack 0.805 / defence 0.909 | Cambuur attack 1.231 / defence 0.956. League average goals — home 1.713 / away 1.444. Cambuur have an above-average attack strength of 1.231 — the away xG of 1.61 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 19 Willem II games / 57 Cambuur games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Willem II 31% | Draw 25% | Cambuur 44%. Fair-value odds: Willem II 3.23 | Draw 4.00 | Cambuur 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cambuur at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cambuur offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.93 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Willem II 60% | Cambuur 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Willem II vs Cambuur | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Koning Willem II Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 12 Dec 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Willem II 31% | Draw 25% | Cambuur 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG Willem II 1.32 / Cambuur 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: Willem II attack 0.805 / def 0.909 | Cambuur attack 1.231 / def 0.956 | league avg home 1.713 / away 1.444 • Poisson stance: Cambuur (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Willem II xG
Expected Goals
1.61
Cambuur xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Willem II vs Cambuur kick off?
Willem II vs Cambuur kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 12 December 2025 at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What was the final score in Willem II vs Cambuur?
Willem II 0 - 1 Cambuur.
Where is Willem II vs Cambuur being played?
The match is being played at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What competition is Willem II vs Cambuur part of?
Willem II vs Cambuur is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Willem II vs Cambuur?
Our statistical model gives Willem II a 31% chance of winning, Cambuur a 44% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Cambuur the favourite.
Will both teams score in Willem II vs Cambuur?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Willem II and Cambuur will score (BTTS).
Will Willem II vs Cambuur have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and Cambuur?
Record (5 meetings): Willem II 0W | Draws 3 | Cambuur 2W.
What form are Willem II and Cambuur in?
Willem II (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-W-L-W. Cambuur (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Willem II's attack at 0.81x the league average against Cambuur's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.32 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cambuur's attack versus Willem II's defence, projects 1.61 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 2-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Cambuur Win
31%
3.24
25%
3.97
44%
2.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Willem II xG
Total xG
2.93
1.61
Cambuur xG
3.24
31%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
2.28
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
20%
5.03
27%
3.74
Win to Nil
6%
16.31
12%
8.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 8.6 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.3 | 9.2 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.5 | 6.0 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.3 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Willem II vs Cambuur?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Willem II and Cambuur expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Willem II and 1.61 for Cambuur, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Willem II vs Cambuur?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Willem II's recent record stands at 15W 14D 28L from 57 games, a 1.04 PPG return, with D-D-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Willem II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cambuur, meanwhile, have gone 33W 11D 13L across 57 games — 1.93 PPG, with W-D-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Cambuur is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Cambuur by 0.89 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Willem II heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Willem II have managed 8W 6D 14L from 28 games — 1.07 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cambuur's away record stands at 14W 6D 8L across 28 trips, a 1.71 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cambuur come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Willem II are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Cambuur are on 1.82 scored and 1.14 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Willem II have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Cambuur in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Willem II
Blended
Cambuur
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Willem II and Cambuur in coming into this match?
Willem II have gone 15W 14D 28L in their last 57 games (1.04 PPG), while Cambuur have gone 33W 11D 13L in their last 57 (1.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Willem II at home or Cambuur away?
Cambuur's away record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Willem II at home: 1.07 PPG; Cambuur away: 1.71 PPG.
Have Willem II or Cambuur been keeping clean sheets recently?
Willem II have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Cambuur in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Willem II and Cambuur runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 12 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Willem II's record when hosting Cambuur specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Willem II
3
Draws
3
Cambuur
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and Cambuur?
From 6 meetings on record, Willem II have won 0, Cambuur have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Willem II and Cambuur last play each other?
They last met on 12 December 2025, when Willem II 0-1 Cambuur.
Who has won more matches between Willem II and Cambuur?
Cambuur have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Willem II 61%, Cambuur 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Willem II) and 46% (Cambuur).
On the defensive side: Cambuur in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Willem II home games / Cambuur away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Willem II play Cambuur?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Willem II's recent matches and 46% of Cambuur's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Willem II vs Cambuur usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Willem II's recent games and 46% of Cambuur's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Willem II and Cambuur tend to score early?
Willem II have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Cambuur in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cambuur edge out Willem II 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cambuur beat Willem II 0-1 at Koning Willem II Stadion, Regular Season - 20, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Willem II 1.32 xG and Cambuur 1.61 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Willem II fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Willem II attack 0.81 / defence 0.91 against Cambuur attack 1.23 / defence 0.96, drawn from 19/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Willem II 31% | Draw 25% | Cambuur 44%, with Cambuur to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Willem II 51%, Cambuur 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Willem II's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Cambuur's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Cambuur arrived the stronger side — 1.93 PPG against 1.04. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Willem II (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward. Cambuur (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.