Waalwijk vs Heracles – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Waalwijk at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Waalwijk vs Heracles encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees Heracles travel to Mandemakers Stadion to take on Waalwijk. The game is scheduled for Friday 12 February 2027, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Waalwijk stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D D L D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Waalwijk haven't played a Eerste Divisie game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Waalwijk's home record at Mandemakers Stadion: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Heracles — All Games: 0W 2D 8L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 0.20 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Heracles haven't played a Eerste Divisie game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Heracles's form when playing away from home: 0W 1D 9L across 10 road games this term (0.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 3.10 conceded per game.
Waalwijk carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.10 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.30 vs 0.20. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Waalwijk, 2 for Heracles and 2 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Apr 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Waalwijk in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Heracles in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 94% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 47% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Waalwijk 79% and Heracles 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Waalwijk 71% | Heracles 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Waalwijk 2.22 xG and Heracles 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waalwijk attack 1.131 / defence 0.980 | Heracles attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.709 / away 1.421. Data: 38 Waalwijk games / 0 Heracles games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Waalwijk 61% | Draw 20% | Heracles 19%. Fair-value odds: Waalwijk 1.64 | Draw 5.00 | Heracles 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Waalwijk (61%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.41. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.41 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.22 / 1.18) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Waalwijk are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.41 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Waalwijk 70% | Heracles 50% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Waalwijk vs Heracles | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Mandemakers Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 12 Feb 2027, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Waalwijk 61% | Draw 20% | Heracles 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 62% | xG Waalwijk 2.22 / Heracles 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Waalwijk attack 1.131 / def 0.980 | Heracles attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.709 / away 1.421 • Poisson stance: Waalwijk (61%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
2.22
Waalwijk xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Heracles xG
62%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Waalwijk vs Heracles kick off?
Waalwijk vs Heracles is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 12 February 2027 at Mandemakers Stadion.
Where is Waalwijk vs Heracles being played?
The match is being played at Mandemakers Stadion.
What competition is Waalwijk vs Heracles part of?
Waalwijk vs Heracles is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Waalwijk vs Heracles?
Our statistical model gives Waalwijk a 61% chance of winning, Heracles a 19% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Waalwijk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Waalwijk vs Heracles?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Waalwijk and Heracles will score (BTTS).
Will Waalwijk vs Heracles have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and Heracles?
Record (6 meetings): Waalwijk 2W | Draws 2 | Heracles 2W.
What form are Waalwijk and Heracles in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Waalwijk (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-D-L-D.
What do the betting odds say about Waalwijk vs Heracles?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Waalwijk's attack rating (1.13) and Heracles's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 2.22 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Heracles's attack versus Waalwijk's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Waalwijk Win
61%
1.64
20%
5.06
19%
5.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.7%
Draw
2 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.22
Waalwijk xG
Total xG
3.41
1.18
Heracles xG
1.64
61%
Home win
5.06
20%
Draw
5.16
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.62
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
11%
9.23
Win to Nil
19%
5.37
2%
47.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 8.7 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.7 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 7.2 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Waalwijk vs Heracles?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are Waalwijk and Heracles expected to score?
The model projects 2.22 expected goals for Waalwijk and 1.18 for Heracles, a combined total of 3.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Waalwijk vs Heracles?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Waalwijk's recent record stands at 13W 11D 10L from 34 games, a 1.47 PPG return, with W-D-D-L-D in the last five. Waalwijk haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Heracles, meanwhile, have gone 5W 4D 25L across 34 games — 0.56 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five. Heracles haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
The points-per-game comparison favours Waalwijk by 0.91 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Heracles heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Waalwijk have managed 8W 3D 6L from 17 games — 1.59 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Heracles's away record stands at 1W 1D 15L across 17 trips, a 0.24 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Waalwijk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Waalwijk are averaging 1.82 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Heracles are on 1.03 scored and 2.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Waalwijk have seen both teams score in 79% of their recent games.
Last 34 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Waalwijk
Pre-Season
Heracles
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Waalwijk and Heracles in coming into this match?
Waalwijk have gone 13W 11D 10L in their last 34 games (1.47 PPG), while Heracles have gone 5W 4D 25L in their last 34 (0.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Waalwijk at home or Heracles away?
Waalwijk's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Waalwijk at home: 1.59 PPG; Heracles away: 0.24 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Waalwijk and Heracles runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 May 2024, when Waalwijk won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Waalwijk's record when hosting Heracles specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Waalwijk
2
Draws
2
Heracles
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and Heracles?
From 6 meetings on record, Waalwijk have won 2, Heracles have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Waalwijk and Heracles last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2025, when Waalwijk 0-0 Heracles.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Heracles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 94% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Waalwijk 76%, Heracles 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Waalwijk and 76% for Heracles. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Heracles in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Waalwijk home games / Heracles away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Waalwijk play Heracles?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 76% of Waalwijk's games and 47% of Heracles's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Waalwijk vs Heracles usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Waalwijk's matches and 76% of Heracles's.
Do Waalwijk and Heracles tend to score early?
Waalwijk have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Heracles in 94% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.