VVV Venlo 0-0 FC OSS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates VVV Venlo at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this VVV Venlo vs FC OSS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees FC OSS travel to Covebo Stadion - De Koel - to take on VVV Venlo. The game is scheduled for Friday 6 December 2024, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, VVV Venlo stand at 2W 0D 8L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for VVV Venlo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
VVV Venlo at Covebo Stadion - De Koel - this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, FC OSS have recorded 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC OSS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, FC OSS have gone 0W 4D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. FC OSS's 1.10 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of VVV Venlo's 0.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for VVV Venlo, 3 for FC OSS and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 Mar 2024, ended 2–0 with VVV Venlo winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
VVV Venlo in-play tendencies (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
FC OSS in-play tendencies (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — VVV Venlo 54% versus FC OSS 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VVV Venlo 58% | FC OSS 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VVV Venlo 1.18 xG and FC OSS 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VVV Venlo attack 0.696 / defence 1.127 | FC OSS attack 0.662 / defence 1.088. League average goals — home 1.552 / away 1.410. VVV Venlo's attack strength of 0.696 is below the league average — the 1.18 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 55 VVV Venlo games / 55 FC OSS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VVV Venlo 38% | Draw 31% | FC OSS 32%. Fair-value odds: VVV Venlo 2.63 | Draw 3.23 | FC OSS 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is VVV Venlo at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form FC OSS (1.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on VVV Venlo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.23 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: VVV Venlo 40% | FC OSS 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VVV Venlo vs FC OSS | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Covebo Stadion - De Koel - • Kick-off: Friday 6 Dec 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VVV Venlo 38% | Draw 31% | FC OSS 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 46% | xG VVV Venlo 1.18 / FC OSS 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: VVV Venlo attack 0.696 / def 1.127 | FC OSS attack 0.662 / def 1.088 | league avg home 1.552 / away 1.410 • Poisson stance: VVV Venlo (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
VVV Venlo xG
Expected Goals
1.05
FC OSS xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VVV Venlo vs FC OSS kick off?
VVV Venlo vs FC OSS kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 6 December 2024 at Covebo Stadion - De Koel -.
What was the final score in VVV Venlo vs FC OSS?
VVV Venlo 0 - 0 FC OSS.
Where is VVV Venlo vs FC OSS being played?
The match is being played at Covebo Stadion - De Koel -.
What competition is VVV Venlo vs FC OSS part of?
VVV Venlo vs FC OSS is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win VVV Venlo vs FC OSS?
Our statistical model gives VVV Venlo a 38% chance of winning, FC OSS a 32% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making VVV Venlo the favourite.
Will both teams score in VVV Venlo vs FC OSS?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both VVV Venlo and FC OSS will score (BTTS).
Will VVV Venlo vs FC OSS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between VVV Venlo and FC OSS?
Record (5 meetings): VVV Venlo 2W | Draws 0 | FC OSS 3W.
What form are VVV Venlo and FC OSS in?
VVV Venlo (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. FC OSS (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates VVV Venlo's attack at 0.70x the league average against FC OSS's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.18 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC OSS's attack versus VVV Venlo's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.5%), 1-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
VVV Venlo Win
38%
2.65
31%
3.24
32%
3.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
VVV Venlo xG
Total xG
2.23
1.05
FC OSS xG
2.65
38%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
3.17
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
31%
3.24
Win to Nil
13%
7.61
10%
10.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 11.3 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 13.3 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 7.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VVV Venlo vs FC OSS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are VVV Venlo and FC OSS expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for VVV Venlo and 1.05 for FC OSS, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for VVV Venlo vs FC OSS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
VVV Venlo's recent record stands at 16W 11D 28L from 55 games, a 1.07 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for VVV Venlo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC OSS, meanwhile, have gone 14W 10D 31L across 55 games — 0.95 PPG, with D-W-L-D-D in their last five. The sample for FC OSS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: VVV Venlo on 1.07 PPG, FC OSS on 0.95. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, VVV Venlo have managed 11W 4D 12L from 27 games — 1.37 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC OSS's away record stands at 3W 6D 18L across 27 trips, a 0.56 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, VVV Venlo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
VVV Venlo are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; FC OSS are on 0.84 scored and 1.76 conceded.
Last 55 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VVV Venlo
Blended
FC OSS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VVV Venlo and FC OSS in coming into this match?
VVV Venlo have gone 16W 11D 28L in their last 55 games (1.07 PPG), while FC OSS have gone 14W 10D 31L in their last 55 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VVV Venlo at home or FC OSS away?
VVV Venlo's home record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VVV Venlo at home: 1.37 PPG; FC OSS away: 0.56 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. The two were last together as recently as 11 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
VVV Venlo's record when hosting FC OSS specifically: 2W 2D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
VVV Venlo
2
Draws
5
FC OSS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VVV Venlo and FC OSS?
From 10 meetings on record, VVV Venlo have won 3, FC OSS have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did VVV Venlo and FC OSS last play each other?
They last met on 11 September 2026, when VVV Venlo 3-1 FC OSS.
Who has won more matches between VVV Venlo and FC OSS?
FC OSS have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
VVV Venlo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
FC OSS see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — VVV Venlo 59%, FC OSS 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (VVV Venlo) and 48% (FC OSS).
On the defensive side: VVV Venlo have failed to score in 26% of games; FC OSS in 59%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VVV Venlo home games / FC OSS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VVV Venlo play FC OSS?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of VVV Venlo's recent matches and 33% of FC OSS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is VVV Venlo vs FC OSS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of VVV Venlo's recent games and 48% of FC OSS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do VVV Venlo and FC OSS tend to score early?
VVV Venlo have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, FC OSS in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at VVV Venlo's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VVV Venlo and FC OSS finished level at 0-0 at Covebo Stadion - De Koel -, Regular Season - 18, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VVV Venlo 1.18 xG and FC OSS 1.05 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. VVV Venlo fell 1.2 short of their projected output. FC OSS landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VVV Venlo attack 0.70 / defence 1.13 against FC OSS attack 0.66 / defence 1.09, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VVV Venlo 38% | Draw 31% | FC OSS 32%, with VVV Venlo to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VVV Venlo 58%, FC OSS 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VVV Venlo's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
FC OSS's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — VVV Venlo 1.07 PPG, FC OSS 0.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. VVV Venlo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.52 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line. FC OSS (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.74 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.