Telstar 2-2 De Graafschap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates De Graafschap at 36% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Telstar vs De Graafschap encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
De Graafschap make the trip to 711 Stadion to face Telstar in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 10. The match kicks off on Saturday 12 October 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Telstar (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Telstar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at 711 Stadion, Telstar have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
De Graafschap have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: W L D W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for De Graafschap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
De Graafschap's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.00 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Telstar, 1.60 for De Graafschap — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Telstar have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, De Graafschap in 100%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 6 meetings, De Graafschap have the stronger historical record — 4 wins to Telstar's 1, with 1 draws in the mix.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Apr 2024, ended 1–5 with De Graafschap winning.
It is worth noting that De Graafschap have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading & In-Play
Telstar — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
De Graafschap — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Telstar 60% and De Graafschap 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Telstar 51% | De Graafschap 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Telstar 1.43 xG and De Graafschap 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Telstar attack 0.924 / defence 0.790 | De Graafschap attack 1.263 / defence 1.072. League average goals — home 1.439 / away 1.471. De Graafschap have an above-average attack strength of 1.263 — the away xG of 1.47 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Telstar's defence rating of 0.790 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 47 Telstar games / 47 De Graafschap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Telstar 35% | Draw 29% | De Graafschap 36%. Fair-value odds: Telstar 2.86 | Draw 3.45 | De Graafschap 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.43 / 1.47) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, De Graafschap are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on De Graafschap if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.90 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Telstar 60% | De Graafschap 100% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Telstar vs De Graafschap | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: 711 Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Oct 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Telstar 35% | Draw 29% | De Graafschap 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 61% | xG Telstar 1.43 / De Graafschap 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Telstar attack 0.924 / def 0.790 | De Graafschap attack 1.263 / def 1.072 | league avg home 1.439 / away 1.471 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Telstar xG
Expected Goals
1.47
De Graafschap xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Telstar vs De Graafschap kick off?
Telstar vs De Graafschap kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 12 October 2024 at 711 Stadion.
What was the final score in Telstar vs De Graafschap?
Telstar 2 - 2 De Graafschap.
Where is Telstar vs De Graafschap being played?
The match is being played at 711 Stadion.
What competition is Telstar vs De Graafschap part of?
Telstar vs De Graafschap is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Telstar vs De Graafschap?
Our statistical model gives Telstar a 35% chance of winning, De Graafschap a 36% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in Telstar vs De Graafschap?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Telstar and De Graafschap will score (BTTS).
Will Telstar vs De Graafschap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Telstar and De Graafschap?
Record (6 meetings): Telstar 1W | Draws 1 | De Graafschap 4W.
What form are Telstar and De Graafschap in?
Telstar (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-D-D. De Graafschap (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Telstar's attack rating (0.92) and De Graafschap's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.43 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — De Graafschap's attack (1.26x) against Telstar's defence (0.79x) — and the away total comes out at 1.47.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
35%
2.89
29%
3.45
36%
2.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Telstar xG
Total xG
2.90
1.47
De Graafschap xG
2.89
35%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
2.74
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.54
Clean Sheet
23%
4.34
24%
4.16
Win to Nil
8%
12.58
9%
11.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 8.1 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.6 | 8.5 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.3 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.9 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Telstar vs De Graafschap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Telstar and De Graafschap expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Telstar and 1.47 for De Graafschap, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Telstar vs De Graafschap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Telstar's recent record stands at 12W 12D 23L from 47 games, a 1.02 PPG return, with W-L-D-D-D in the last five. The sample for Telstar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
De Graafschap, meanwhile, have gone 22W 9D 16L across 47 games — 1.60 PPG, with W-L-D-W-D in their last five. The sample for De Graafschap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours De Graafschap by 0.58 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Telstar heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Telstar have managed 8W 7D 8L from 23 games — 1.35 PPG in front of their own supporters.
De Graafschap's away record stands at 8W 5D 10L across 23 trips, a 1.26 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Telstar are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.66 conceded per game recently; De Graafschap are on 1.81 scored and 1.55 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: De Graafschap in 66%.
Last 47 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Telstar
Blended
De Graafschap
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Telstar and De Graafschap in coming into this match?
Telstar have gone 12W 12D 23L in their last 47 games (1.02 PPG), while De Graafschap have gone 22W 9D 16L in their last 47 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Telstar at home or De Graafschap away?
Telstar's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Telstar at home: 1.35 PPG; De Graafschap away: 1.26 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: De Graafschap won 5-1 on 12 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Telstar have gone 0W 1D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against De Graafschap — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Telstar
2
Draws
5
De Graafschap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Telstar and De Graafschap?
From 8 meetings on record, Telstar have won 1, De Graafschap have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Telstar and De Graafschap last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2025, when De Graafschap 2-1 Telstar.
Who has won more matches between Telstar and De Graafschap?
De Graafschap have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Telstar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 65% for Telstar, 70% for De Graafschap — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Telstar and 74% for De Graafschap. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Telstar have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Telstar home games / De Graafschap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Telstar play De Graafschap?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Telstar's games and 70% of De Graafschap's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Telstar vs De Graafschap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Telstar's matches and 74% of De Graafschap's.
Do Telstar and De Graafschap tend to score early?
Telstar have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, De Graafschap in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Telstar and De Graafschap share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at 711 Stadion, Regular Season - 10, as Telstar and De Graafschap drew 2-2 in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Telstar 1.43 xG and De Graafschap 1.47 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Telstar attack 0.92 / defence 0.79 against De Graafschap attack 1.26 / defence 1.07, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Telstar 35% | Draw 29% | De Graafschap 36%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Telstar 51%, De Graafschap 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Telstar's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
De Graafschap's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, De Graafschap arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 1.02. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.