Roda 0-1 Willem II – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Roda at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Roda vs Willem II fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Willem II travel to Parkstad Limburg Stadion to take on Roda. The game is scheduled for Saturday 21 October 2023, 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Roda — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 2.30 points per game. Last five: W W D W D. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Roda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Roda's home record at Parkstad Limburg Stadion: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Willem II have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Willem II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Willem II's form when playing away from home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Roda 2.30 PPG, Willem II 2.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Roda, 1 for Willem II and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 May 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Roda in-play tendencies (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
Willem II in-play tendencies (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Roda 58% and Willem II 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Roda 54% | Willem II 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Roda 1.51 xG and Willem II 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Roda attack 1.350 / defence 0.838 | Willem II attack 0.849 / defence 0.655. League average goals — home 1.709 / away 1.363. Roda carry an above-average attack strength of 1.350 — their λ of 1.51 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Willem II's defence strength of 0.655 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 48 Roda games / 48 Willem II games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Roda 49% | Draw 27% | Willem II 24%. Fair-value odds: Roda 2.04 | Draw 3.70 | Willem II 4.17. Roda hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Roda as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Roda offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.48 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: Roda 60% | Willem II 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Roda vs Willem II | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Parkstad Limburg Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Oct 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Roda 49% | Draw 27% | Willem II 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 49% | xG Roda 1.51 / Willem II 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Roda attack 1.350 / def 0.838 | Willem II attack 0.849 / def 0.655 | league avg home 1.709 / away 1.363 • Poisson stance: Roda (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Roda xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Willem II xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Roda vs Willem II kick off?
Roda vs Willem II kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 21 October 2023 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What was the final score in Roda vs Willem II?
Roda 0 - 1 Willem II.
Where is Roda vs Willem II being played?
The match is being played at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What competition is Roda vs Willem II part of?
Roda vs Willem II is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Roda vs Willem II?
Our statistical model gives Roda a 49% chance of winning, Willem II a 24% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Roda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Roda vs Willem II?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Roda and Willem II will score (BTTS).
Will Roda vs Willem II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and Willem II?
Record (2 meetings): Roda 0W | Draws 1 | Willem II 1W.
What form are Roda and Willem II in?
Roda (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-D-W-D. Willem II (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Roda's attacking strength (1.35x league average) is weighed against Willem II's defensive record (0.66x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.51. The same calculation in reverse, Willem II's attack versus Roda's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.0%), 0-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Roda Win
49%
2.03
27%
3.70
24%
4.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Roda xG
Total xG
2.48
0.97
Willem II xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
4.22
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
22%
4.54
Win to Nil
19%
5.35
5%
19.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 8.1 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 12.3 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.3 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Roda vs Willem II?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Roda and Willem II expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Roda and 0.97 for Willem II, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Roda vs Willem II?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 48 outings, Roda have picked up 1.38 PPG on a 19W 9D 20L record — W-W-D-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Roda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Willem II's form line: 25W 13D 10L from 48 games, 1.83 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-W. The sample for Willem II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Willem II are the form team by 0.45 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Roda.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Roda have posted 1.61 PPG from 23 outings (11W 4D 8L).
On the road, Willem II have gone 7W 11D 5L from 23 away games — 1.39 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.83 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Willem II's season.
The Goals Picture
Roda are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Willem II are on 1.81 scored and 1.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Willem II in 62%.
Last 48 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Roda
Blended
Willem II
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Roda and Willem II in coming into this match?
Roda have gone 19W 9D 20L in their last 48 games (1.38 PPG), while Willem II have gone 25W 13D 10L in their last 48 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Roda at home or Willem II away?
Roda's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Roda at home: 1.61 PPG; Willem II away: 1.39 PPG.
Have Roda or Willem II been keeping clean sheets recently?
Roda have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Willem II in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Roda and Willem II runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Roda's record when hosting Willem II specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Roda
1
Draws
3
Willem II
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and Willem II?
From 6 meetings on record, Roda have won 2, Willem II have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Roda and Willem II last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Roda 0-1 Willem II.
Who has won more matches between Roda and Willem II?
Willem II have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Roda at 70%, Willem II at 61%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Roda) and 52% (Willem II). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Willem II in 30%; Willem II in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Roda home games / Willem II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Roda play Willem II?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Roda's games and 61% of Willem II's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Roda vs Willem II usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Roda's matches and 52% of Willem II's.
Do Roda and Willem II tend to score early?
Roda have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Willem II in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Willem II defy the odds to beat Roda 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Willem II beat Roda 0-1 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion, Regular Season - 11, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Roda 1.51 xG and Willem II 0.97 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Roda fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Roda attack 1.35 / defence 0.84 against Willem II attack 0.85 / defence 0.66, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Roda 49% | Draw 27% | Willem II 24%, with Roda to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Willem II win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Roda 54%, Willem II 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Roda's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Willem II's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Willem II arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.38. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Roda (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward. Willem II (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.