NAC Breda 3-1 Telstar – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates NAC Breda at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this NAC Breda vs Telstar encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Telstar make the trip to Rat Verlegh Stadion to face NAC Breda in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 11. The match kicks off on Friday 20 October 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
NAC Breda have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L L D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for NAC Breda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
NAC Breda at Rat Verlegh Stadion this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Telstar's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Telstar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Telstar have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward NAC Breda. A 0.70 PPG lead over Telstar (1.40 vs 0.70) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for NAC Breda, 1 for Telstar and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.5 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 19 May 2023, ended 1–2 with Telstar winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
NAC Breda — key trading statistics (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Telstar — key trading statistics (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — NAC Breda 75% and Telstar 48% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NAC Breda 71% | Telstar 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NAC Breda 1.94 xG and Telstar 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NAC Breda attack 1.089 / defence 1.317 | Telstar attack 0.643 / defence 1.059. League average goals — home 1.686 / away 1.366. Data: 48 NAC Breda games / 48 Telstar games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: NAC Breda 56% | Draw 22% | Telstar 22%. Fair-value odds: NAC Breda 1.79 | Draw 4.55 | Telstar 4.55. The model has a clear lean to NAC Breda (56%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.10. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.10 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, NAC Breda are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.10 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: NAC Breda 70% | Telstar 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NAC Breda vs Telstar | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Rat Verlegh Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 20 Oct 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NAC Breda 56% | Draw 22% | Telstar 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 59% | xG NAC Breda 1.94 / Telstar 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: NAC Breda attack 1.089 / def 1.317 | Telstar attack 0.643 / def 1.059 | league avg home 1.686 / away 1.366 • Poisson stance: NAC Breda (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.94
NAC Breda xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Telstar xG
59%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NAC Breda vs Telstar kick off?
NAC Breda vs Telstar kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 20 October 2023 at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What was the final score in NAC Breda vs Telstar?
NAC Breda 3 - 1 Telstar.
Where is NAC Breda vs Telstar being played?
The match is being played at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What competition is NAC Breda vs Telstar part of?
NAC Breda vs Telstar is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NAC Breda vs Telstar?
Our statistical model gives NAC Breda a 56% chance of winning, Telstar a 22% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making NAC Breda the favourite.
Will both teams score in NAC Breda vs Telstar?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both NAC Breda and Telstar will score (BTTS).
Will NAC Breda vs Telstar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and Telstar?
Record (4 meetings): NAC Breda 1W | Draws 2 | Telstar 1W.
What form are NAC Breda and Telstar in?
NAC Breda (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-W-W. Telstar (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates NAC Breda's attack at 1.09x the league average against Telstar's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.94 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Telstar's attack (0.64x) against NAC Breda's defence (1.32x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
NAC Breda Win
56%
1.80
22%
4.49
22%
4.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.94
NAC Breda xG
Total xG
3.10
1.16
Telstar xG
1.80
56%
Home win
4.49
22%
Draw
4.50
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
31%
3.18
14%
6.99
Win to Nil
17%
5.73
3%
31.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 5.2 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 10.1 | 5.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 6.4 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NAC Breda vs Telstar?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are NAC Breda and Telstar expected to score?
The model projects 1.94 expected goals for NAC Breda and 1.16 for Telstar, a combined total of 3.10.
How confident is the prediction model for NAC Breda vs Telstar?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 48 outings, NAC Breda have picked up 1.46 PPG on a 21W 7D 20L record — L-L-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for NAC Breda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Telstar's form line: 16W 12D 20L from 48 games, 1.25 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-W. The sample for Telstar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.46 PPG for NAC Breda against 1.25 for Telstar. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, NAC Breda have posted 1.57 PPG from 23 outings (11W 3D 9L).
On the road, Telstar have gone 6W 6D 11L from 23 away games — 1.04 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, NAC Breda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
NAC Breda are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.77 conceded per game recently; Telstar are on 1.02 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: NAC Breda have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games.
Last 48 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NAC Breda
Blended
Telstar
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NAC Breda and Telstar in coming into this match?
NAC Breda have gone 21W 7D 20L in their last 48 games (1.46 PPG), while Telstar have gone 16W 12D 20L in their last 48 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NAC Breda at home or Telstar away?
NAC Breda's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NAC Breda at home: 1.57 PPG; Telstar away: 1.04 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Telstar have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: NAC Breda won 1-4 on 14 Mar 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, NAC Breda have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Telstar — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
NAC Breda
3
Draws
3
Telstar
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and Telstar?
From 8 meetings on record, NAC Breda have won 2, Telstar have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did NAC Breda and Telstar last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when Telstar 3-0 NAC Breda.
Who has won more matches between NAC Breda and Telstar?
Telstar have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Telstar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — NAC Breda 74%, Telstar 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (NAC Breda) and 44% (Telstar).
On the defensive side: Telstar in 30%; Telstar in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NAC Breda home games / Telstar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NAC Breda play Telstar?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of NAC Breda's games and 44% of Telstar's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is NAC Breda vs Telstar usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 65% of NAC Breda's recent games and 44% of Telstar's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do NAC Breda and Telstar tend to score early?
NAC Breda have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Telstar in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
NAC Breda cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Telstar.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
NAC Breda beat Telstar 3-1 at Rat Verlegh Stadion, Regular Season - 11, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NAC Breda 1.94 xG and Telstar 1.16 xG, a combined 3.10. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. NAC Breda beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NAC Breda attack 1.09 / defence 1.32 against Telstar attack 0.64 / defence 1.06, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it NAC Breda 56% | Draw 22% | Telstar 22%, with NAC Breda to win its most likely call at 56%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NAC Breda 71%, Telstar 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NAC Breda's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Telstar's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — NAC Breda 1.46 PPG, Telstar 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the NAC Breda win broke the near-deadlock. NAC Breda (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.78 average — above their attacking norm. Telstar (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.