Roda 2-0 Jong AZ – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Roda at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Roda vs Jong AZ fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Roda and Jong AZ meet at Parkstad Limburg Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 30. This fixture gets under way on Monday 13 March 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Roda have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Parkstad Limburg Stadion, Roda have gone 4W 1D 5L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Jong AZ (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L W D D L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 2.30. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Jong AZ have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Roda lead 1W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Nov 2022, ended 0–2 with Jong AZ winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Roda half-time and goal-timing data (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Jong AZ half-time and goal-timing data (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Roda 58% versus Jong AZ 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Roda 56% | Jong AZ 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Roda 1.55 xG and Jong AZ 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Roda attack 0.802 / defence 1.108 | Jong AZ attack 0.994 / defence 1.074. League average goals — home 1.799 / away 1.281. Data: 66 Roda games / 66 Jong AZ games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Roda 41% | Draw 24% | Jong AZ 35%. Fair-value odds: Roda 2.44 | Draw 4.17 | Jong AZ 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.55 / 1.41) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Roda at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Roda if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.96 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Roda 70% | Jong AZ 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Roda vs Jong AZ | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Parkstad Limburg Stadion • Kick-off: Monday 13 Mar 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Roda 41% | Draw 24% | Jong AZ 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG Roda 1.55 / Jong AZ 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Roda attack 0.802 / def 1.108 | Jong AZ attack 0.994 / def 1.074 | league avg home 1.799 / away 1.281 • Poisson stance: Roda (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Roda xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Jong AZ xG
60%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Roda vs Jong AZ kick off?
Roda vs Jong AZ kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 13 March 2023 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What was the final score in Roda vs Jong AZ?
Roda 2 - 0 Jong AZ.
Where is Roda vs Jong AZ being played?
The match is being played at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What competition is Roda vs Jong AZ part of?
Roda vs Jong AZ is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Roda vs Jong AZ?
Our statistical model gives Roda a 41% chance of winning, Jong AZ a 35% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Roda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Roda vs Jong AZ?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Roda and Jong AZ will score (BTTS).
Will Roda vs Jong AZ have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and Jong AZ?
Record (3 meetings): Roda 1W | Draws 1 | Jong AZ 1W.
What form are Roda and Jong AZ in?
Roda (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Jong AZ (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Roda's attack at 0.80x the league average against Jong AZ's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.55 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Jong AZ's attack (0.99x) against Roda's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.41.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Roda Win
41%
2.45
24%
4.09
35%
2.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Roda xG
Total xG
2.96
1.41
Jong AZ xG
2.45
41%
Home win
4.09
24%
Draw
2.88
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.47
Clean Sheet
24%
4.10
21%
4.70
Win to Nil
10%
10.06
7%
13.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 7.3 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 11.3 | 8.0 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.8 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.5 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Roda vs Jong AZ?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Roda and Jong AZ expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Roda and 1.41 for Jong AZ, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Roda vs Jong AZ?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Roda's recent record stands at 28W 17D 21L from 66 games, a 1.53 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-L in the last five.
Jong AZ, meanwhile, have gone 23W 13D 30L across 66 games — 1.24 PPG, with L-W-D-D-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.53 PPG for Roda against 1.24 for Jong AZ. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Roda have managed 16W 8D 9L from 33 games — 1.70 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Jong AZ's away record stands at 9W 5D 19L across 33 trips, a 0.97 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Roda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Roda are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Jong AZ are on 1.32 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Last 66 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Roda
Current Season
Jong AZ
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Roda and Jong AZ in coming into this match?
Roda have gone 28W 17D 21L in their last 66 games (1.53 PPG), while Jong AZ have gone 23W 13D 30L in their last 66 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Roda at home or Jong AZ away?
Roda's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Roda at home: 1.70 PPG; Jong AZ away: 0.97 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Jong AZ have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Jong AZ won 6-1 on 12 Aug 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Roda have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Jong AZ — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Roda
2
Draws
5
Jong AZ
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and Jong AZ?
From 10 meetings on record, Roda have won 3, Jong AZ have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Roda and Jong AZ last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when Jong AZ 2-0 Roda.
Who has won more matches between Roda and Jong AZ?
Jong AZ have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Roda 61%, Jong AZ 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Roda) and 54% (Jong AZ). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Roda keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Jong AZ in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Roda home games / Jong AZ away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Roda play Jong AZ?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Roda's recent matches and 46% of Jong AZ's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Roda vs Jong AZ usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Roda's matches and 54% of Jong AZ's.
Do Roda and Jong AZ tend to score early?
Roda have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Jong AZ in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Roda cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Jong AZ.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Roda beat Jong AZ 2-0 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion, Regular Season - 30, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Roda 1.55 xG and Jong AZ 1.41 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Jong AZ landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Roda attack 0.80 / defence 1.11 against Jong AZ attack 0.99 / defence 1.07, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Roda 41% | Draw 24% | Jong AZ 35%, with Roda to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Roda 56%, Jong AZ 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Roda's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Jong AZ's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Roda 1.53 PPG, Jong AZ 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Roda win broke the near-deadlock. Roda (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Jong AZ (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.