Roda vs De Graafschap – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates De Graafschap at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Roda vs De Graafschap fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 17 as Roda welcome De Graafschap to Parkstad Limburg Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 29 November 2026 at 15:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Roda have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: D L W W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Roda have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Roda have posted 2W 4D 4L at Parkstad Limburg Stadion — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, De Graafschap stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 2.20. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. De Graafschap have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, De Graafschap have posted 2W 5D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Roda) versus 0.90 (De Graafschap). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 10 previous meetings, Roda have won 5, De Graafschap 3, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Dec 2025, ended 3–2 with Roda winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Roda in-play and half-time data (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
De Graafschap in-play and half-time data (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Roda 64% and De Graafschap 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Roda 57% | De Graafschap 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Roda 1.53 xG and De Graafschap 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Roda attack 0.940 / defence 0.989 | De Graafschap attack 0.934 / defence 0.922. League average goals — home 1.770 / away 1.698. Data: 42 Roda games / 42 De Graafschap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Roda 37% | Draw 24% | De Graafschap 39%. Fair-value odds: Roda 2.70 | Draw 4.17 | De Graafschap 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.10. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.10 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.53 / 1.57) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, De Graafschap are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on De Graafschap offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.10 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Roda 50% | De Graafschap 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Roda vs De Graafschap | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Parkstad Limburg Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Nov 2026, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Roda 37% | Draw 24% | De Graafschap 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG Roda 1.53 / De Graafschap 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: Roda attack 0.940 / def 0.989 | De Graafschap attack 0.934 / def 0.922 | league avg home 1.770 / away 1.698 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Roda xG
Expected Goals
1.57
De Graafschap xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Roda vs De Graafschap kick off?
Roda vs De Graafschap is scheduled to kick off at 15:45 on Sunday 29 November 2026 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
Where is Roda vs De Graafschap being played?
The match is being played at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What competition is Roda vs De Graafschap part of?
Roda vs De Graafschap is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Roda vs De Graafschap?
Our statistical model gives Roda a 37% chance of winning, De Graafschap a 39% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in Roda vs De Graafschap?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Roda and De Graafschap will score (BTTS).
Will Roda vs De Graafschap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and De Graafschap?
Record (10 meetings): Roda 5W | Draws 2 | De Graafschap 3W.
What form are Roda and De Graafschap in?
Roda (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-W-D. De Graafschap (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Roda's attack rating (0.94) and De Graafschap's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.53 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, De Graafschap's attack versus Roda's defence, projects 1.57 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
37%
2.68
24%
4.20
39%
2.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Roda xG
Total xG
3.10
1.57
De Graafschap xG
2.68
37%
Home win
4.20
24%
Draw
2.57
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.64
Clean Sheet
21%
4.80
22%
4.64
Win to Nil
8%
12.86
8%
11.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 7.0 | 5.5 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 10.8 | 8.5 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.3 | 6.5 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.2 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Roda vs De Graafschap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Roda and De Graafschap expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Roda and 1.57 for De Graafschap, a combined total of 3.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Roda vs De Graafschap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Roda's recent record stands at 16W 16D 12L from 44 games, a 1.45 PPG return, with D-L-W-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Roda, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
De Graafschap, meanwhile, have gone 18W 11D 15L across 44 games — 1.48 PPG, with D-D-L-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for De Graafschap, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Roda on 1.45 PPG, De Graafschap on 1.48. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Roda have managed 5W 9D 8L from 22 games — 1.09 PPG in front of their own supporters.
De Graafschap's away record stands at 8W 7D 7L across 22 trips, a 1.41 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Roda are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; De Graafschap are on 1.86 scored and 1.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Roda have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; De Graafschap in 75%.
Last 44 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Roda
Early Season
De Graafschap
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Roda and De Graafschap in coming into this match?
Roda have gone 16W 16D 12L in their last 44 games (1.45 PPG), while De Graafschap have gone 18W 11D 15L in their last 44 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Roda at home or De Graafschap away?
De Graafschap's away record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Roda at home: 1.09 PPG; De Graafschap away: 1.41 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Roda and De Graafschap runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 12 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Roda have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Aug 2021, when Roda won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Roda's record when hosting De Graafschap specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Roda
2
Draws
3
De Graafschap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and De Graafschap?
From 10 meetings on record, Roda have won 5, De Graafschap have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Roda and De Graafschap last play each other?
They last met on 12 December 2025, when De Graafschap 2-3 Roda.
Who has won more matches between Roda and De Graafschap?
Roda have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Roda at 59%, De Graafschap at 73%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Roda) and 64% (De Graafschap). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Roda home games / De Graafschap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Roda play De Graafschap?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Roda's games and 73% of De Graafschap's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Roda vs De Graafschap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Roda's matches and 64% of De Graafschap's.
Do Roda and De Graafschap tend to score early?
Roda have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, De Graafschap in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.