Roda vs De Graafschap – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Roda at 49% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Roda vs De Graafschap encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 17 as Roda welcome De Graafschap to Parkstad Limburg Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 29 November 2026 at 15:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Roda have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W D W L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Roda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Roda have posted 3W 5D 2L at Parkstad Limburg Stadion — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, De Graafschap stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for De Graafschap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, De Graafschap have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Roda carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.60 vs 1.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Roda register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, De Graafschap in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 10 previous meetings, Roda have won 5, De Graafschap 3, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Dec 2025, ended 3–2 with Roda winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Roda in-play and half-time data (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
De Graafschap in-play and half-time data (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Roda 60% and De Graafschap 74% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Roda 50% | De Graafschap 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Roda 1.67 xG and De Graafschap 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Roda attack 0.879 / defence 0.814 | De Graafschap attack 0.982 / defence 1.025. League average goals — home 1.856 / away 1.461. Data: 48 Roda games / 48 De Graafschap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Roda 49% | Draw 24% | De Graafschap 27%. Fair-value odds: Roda 2.04 | Draw 4.17 | De Graafschap 3.70. Roda hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Roda are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Roda offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.84 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Roda 60% | De Graafschap 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Roda vs De Graafschap | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Parkstad Limburg Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Nov 2026, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Roda 49% | Draw 24% | De Graafschap 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 56% | xG Roda 1.67 / De Graafschap 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Roda attack 0.879 / def 0.814 | De Graafschap attack 0.982 / def 1.025 | league avg home 1.856 / away 1.461 • Poisson stance: Roda (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Roda xG
Expected Goals
1.17
De Graafschap xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Roda vs De Graafschap kick off?
Roda vs De Graafschap is scheduled to kick off at 15:45 on Sunday 29 November 2026 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
Where is Roda vs De Graafschap being played?
The match is being played at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What competition is Roda vs De Graafschap part of?
Roda vs De Graafschap is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Roda vs De Graafschap?
Our statistical model gives Roda a 49% chance of winning, De Graafschap a 27% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Roda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Roda vs De Graafschap?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Roda and De Graafschap will score (BTTS).
Will Roda vs De Graafschap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and De Graafschap?
Record (10 meetings): Roda 5W | Draws 2 | De Graafschap 3W.
What form are Roda and De Graafschap in?
Roda (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-L-D. De Graafschap (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.30 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Roda's attack rating (0.88) and De Graafschap's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.67 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, De Graafschap's attack versus Roda's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Roda Win
49%
2.03
24%
4.13
27%
3.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Roda xG
Total xG
2.84
1.17
De Graafschap xG
2.03
49%
Home win
4.13
24%
Draw
3.75
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
31%
3.22
19%
5.32
Win to Nil
15%
6.54
5%
19.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 6.8 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 11.4 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.5 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.3 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Roda vs De Graafschap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Roda and De Graafschap expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Roda and 1.17 for De Graafschap, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Roda vs De Graafschap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Roda's recent record stands at 18W 19D 13L from 50 games, a 1.46 PPG return, with W-D-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Roda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
De Graafschap, meanwhile, have gone 21W 12D 17L across 50 games — 1.50 PPG, with W-L-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for De Graafschap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Roda on 1.46 PPG, De Graafschap on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Roda have managed 7W 10D 8L from 25 games — 1.24 PPG in front of their own supporters.
De Graafschap's away record stands at 9W 8D 8L across 25 trips, a 1.40 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Roda are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; De Graafschap are on 1.80 scored and 1.72 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Roda have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; De Graafschap in 74%.
Last 50 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Roda
Blended
De Graafschap
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Roda and De Graafschap in coming into this match?
Roda have gone 18W 19D 13L in their last 50 games (1.46 PPG), while De Graafschap have gone 21W 12D 17L in their last 50 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Roda at home or De Graafschap away?
De Graafschap's away record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Roda at home: 1.24 PPG; De Graafschap away: 1.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Roda and De Graafschap runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 12 December 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Roda have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Aug 2021, when Roda won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Roda's record when hosting De Graafschap specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Roda
2
Draws
3
De Graafschap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and De Graafschap?
From 10 meetings on record, Roda have won 5, De Graafschap have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Roda and De Graafschap last play each other?
They last met on 12 December 2025, when De Graafschap 2-3 Roda.
Who has won more matches between Roda and De Graafschap?
Roda have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Roda 56%, De Graafschap 72% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Roda) and 68% (De Graafschap). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Roda home games / De Graafschap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Roda play De Graafschap?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Roda's games and 72% of De Graafschap's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Roda vs De Graafschap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 44% of Roda's matches and 68% of De Graafschap's.
Do Roda and De Graafschap tend to score early?
Roda have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, De Graafschap in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.