NAC Breda 4-2 FC Eindhoven – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Eindhoven at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this NAC Breda vs FC Eindhoven fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
NAC Breda host FC Eindhoven at Rat Verlegh Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 26 September 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
NAC Breda — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W D L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. NAC Breda have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
NAC Breda's home record at Rat Verlegh Stadion: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Eindhoven stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. FC Eindhoven have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, FC Eindhoven have posted 2W 1D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: NAC Breda 1.40 PPG, FC Eindhoven 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, NAC Breda have won 1, FC Eindhoven 2, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Feb 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
NAC Breda trading profile (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
FC Eindhoven trading profile (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — NAC Breda 54% versus FC Eindhoven 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NAC Breda 56% | FC Eindhoven 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NAC Breda 1.57 xG and FC Eindhoven 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NAC Breda attack 0.845 / defence 1.338 | FC Eindhoven attack 0.759 / defence 0.954. League average goals — home 1.953 / away 1.573. Data: 7 NAC Breda games / 45 FC Eindhoven games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: NAC Breda 38% | Draw 24% | FC Eindhoven 39%. Fair-value odds: NAC Breda 2.63 | Draw 4.17 | FC Eindhoven 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.57 / 1.60) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC Eindhoven as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Eindhoven offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.17 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: NAC Breda 40% | FC Eindhoven 60%.
The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NAC Breda vs FC Eindhoven | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Rat Verlegh Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Sep 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NAC Breda 38% | Draw 24% | FC Eindhoven 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 63% | xG NAC Breda 1.57 / FC Eindhoven 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: NAC Breda attack 0.845 / def 1.338 | FC Eindhoven attack 0.759 / def 0.954 | league avg home 1.953 / away 1.573 • Poisson stance: FC Eindhoven (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
NAC Breda xG
Expected Goals
1.60
FC Eindhoven xG
63%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NAC Breda vs FC Eindhoven kick off?
NAC Breda vs FC Eindhoven kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 26 September 2026 at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What was the final score in NAC Breda vs FC Eindhoven?
NAC Breda 4 - 2 FC Eindhoven.
Where is NAC Breda vs FC Eindhoven being played?
The match is being played at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What competition is NAC Breda vs FC Eindhoven part of?
NAC Breda vs FC Eindhoven is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NAC Breda vs FC Eindhoven?
Our statistical model gives NAC Breda a 38% chance of winning, FC Eindhoven a 39% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making FC Eindhoven the favourite.
Will both teams score in NAC Breda vs FC Eindhoven?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both NAC Breda and FC Eindhoven will score (BTTS).
Will NAC Breda vs FC Eindhoven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and FC Eindhoven?
Record (6 meetings): NAC Breda 1W | Draws 3 | FC Eindhoven 2W.
What form are NAC Breda and FC Eindhoven in?
NAC Breda (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-D-L-L-W. FC Eindhoven (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from NAC Breda's attack rating (0.84) and FC Eindhoven's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.57 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Eindhoven's attack versus NAC Breda's defence, projects 1.60 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Eindhoven Win
38%
2.65
24%
4.25
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
NAC Breda xG
Total xG
3.17
1.60
FC Eindhoven xG
2.65
38%
Home win
4.25
24%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.72
Clean Sheet
20%
4.94
21%
4.82
Win to Nil
8%
13.10
8%
12.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 6.7 | 5.4 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 10.6 | 8.4 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.3 | 6.6 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NAC Breda vs FC Eindhoven?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are NAC Breda and FC Eindhoven expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for NAC Breda and 1.60 for FC Eindhoven, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for NAC Breda vs FC Eindhoven?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
NAC Breda come into this having played 41 games, going 9W 12D 20L for 0.95 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for NAC Breda, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, FC Eindhoven sit at 1.15 PPG from 41 outings (14W 5D 22L), a run that reads L-L-D-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for FC Eindhoven, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: NAC Breda on 0.95 PPG, FC Eindhoven on 1.15. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
NAC Breda's home form reads 6W 5D 9L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.15 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Eindhoven have taken 0.85 points per game from 20 outings (5W 2D 13L).
Goals in Recent Form
NAC Breda are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; FC Eindhoven are on 1.44 scored and 2.00 conceded.
Last 41 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NAC Breda
Early Season
FC Eindhoven
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NAC Breda and FC Eindhoven in coming into this match?
NAC Breda have gone 9W 12D 20L in their last 41 games (0.95 PPG), while FC Eindhoven have gone 14W 5D 22L in their last 41 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NAC Breda at home or FC Eindhoven away?
NAC Breda's home record (1.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NAC Breda at home: 1.15 PPG; FC Eindhoven away: 0.85 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. The two were last together as recently as 26 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
NAC Breda's record when hosting FC Eindhoven specifically: 1W 3D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
2
NAC Breda
3
Draws
2
FC Eindhoven
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and FC Eindhoven?
From 7 meetings on record, NAC Breda have won 2, FC Eindhoven have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did NAC Breda and FC Eindhoven last play each other?
They last met on 26 September 2026, when NAC Breda 4-2 FC Eindhoven.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
FC Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — NAC Breda 50%, FC Eindhoven 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (NAC Breda) and 65% (FC Eindhoven). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: NAC Breda have failed to score in 35% of games; FC Eindhoven in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NAC Breda home games / FC Eindhoven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NAC Breda play FC Eindhoven?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of NAC Breda's recent matches and 50% of FC Eindhoven's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is NAC Breda vs FC Eindhoven usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 45% of NAC Breda's matches and 65% of FC Eindhoven's.
Do NAC Breda and FC Eindhoven tend to score early?
NAC Breda have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, FC Eindhoven in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
NAC Breda cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over FC Eindhoven.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
NAC Breda beat FC Eindhoven 4-2 at Rat Verlegh Stadion, Regular Season - 8, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NAC Breda 1.57 xG and FC Eindhoven 1.60 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. NAC Breda beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NAC Breda attack 0.84 / defence 1.34 against FC Eindhoven attack 0.76 / defence 0.95, drawn from 7/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it NAC Breda 38% | Draw 24% | FC Eindhoven 39%, with FC Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual NAC Breda win had been the model's second-ranked read at 38%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NAC Breda 56%, FC Eindhoven 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NAC Breda's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
FC Eindhoven's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — NAC Breda 0.95 PPG, FC Eindhoven 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the NAC Breda win broke the near-deadlock. NAC Breda (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm. FC Eindhoven (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 2.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.