MVV 1-1 Roda – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Roda at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this MVV vs Roda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
MVV and Roda meet at De Geusselt in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 5. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 4 September 2022 at 11:15 UTC.
Current Form
MVV's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. MVV have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at De Geusselt, MVV have gone 3W 1D 6L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at De Geusselt this season.
Roda (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: L W W W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Roda have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Roda have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.80 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: MVV 0W, Roda 1W, 0D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 7 Jan 2022, ended 0–1 with Roda winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
MVV half-time and goal-timing data (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Roda half-time and goal-timing data (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — MVV 60% versus Roda 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (MVV 64% | Roda 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects MVV 1.28 xG and Roda 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: MVV attack 1.132 / defence 1.043 | Roda attack 1.187 / defence 0.730. League average goals — home 1.553 / away 1.337. Roda's defence strength of 0.730 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 42 MVV games / 42 Roda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: MVV 30% | Draw 24% | Roda 46%. Fair-value odds: MVV 3.33 | Draw 4.17 | Roda 2.17. Roda hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Roda at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Roda if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.94 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: MVV 60% | Roda 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: MVV vs Roda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: De Geusselt • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Sep 2022, 11:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: MVV 30% | Draw 24% | Roda 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 58% | xG MVV 1.28 / Roda 1.66 • Poisson strength factors: MVV attack 1.132 / def 1.043 | Roda attack 1.187 / def 0.730 | league avg home 1.553 / away 1.337 • Poisson stance: Roda (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
MVV xG
Expected Goals
1.66
Roda xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does MVV vs Roda kick off?
MVV vs Roda kicked off at 11:15 on Sunday 4 September 2022 at De Geusselt.
What was the final score in MVV vs Roda?
MVV 1 - 1 Roda.
Where is MVV vs Roda being played?
The match is being played at De Geusselt.
What competition is MVV vs Roda part of?
MVV vs Roda is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win MVV vs Roda?
Our statistical model gives MVV a 30% chance of winning, Roda a 46% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Roda the favourite.
Will both teams score in MVV vs Roda?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both MVV and Roda will score (BTTS).
Will MVV vs Roda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between MVV and Roda?
Record (1 meetings): MVV 0W | Draws 0 | Roda 1W.
What form are MVV and Roda in?
MVV (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-W-D. Roda (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from MVV's attack rating (1.13) and Roda's defence rating (0.73), the model arrives at 1.28 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Roda's attack (1.19x) against MVV's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.66.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-1 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Roda Win
30%
3.36
24%
4.14
46%
2.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
MVV xG
Total xG
2.94
1.66
Roda xG
3.36
30%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
2.17
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
19%
5.23
28%
3.61
Win to Nil
6%
17.61
13%
7.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 8.8 | 7.3 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 11.2 | 9.3 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.2 | 6.0 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for MVV vs Roda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are MVV and Roda expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for MVV and 1.66 for Roda, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for MVV vs Roda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
MVV come into this having played 42 games, going 14W 5D 23L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-D. It's still early in the season for MVV, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Roda sit at 1.74 PPG from 42 outings (20W 13D 9L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Roda, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Roda carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.62 PPG clear of MVV — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
MVV's home form reads 7W 3D 11L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.14 PPG return.
Away from home, Roda have taken 1.62 points per game from 21 outings (9W 7D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Roda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
MVV are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.95 conceded per game recently; Roda are on 1.95 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
MVV
Early Season
Roda
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are MVV and Roda in coming into this match?
MVV have gone 14W 5D 23L in their last 42 games (1.12 PPG), while Roda have gone 20W 13D 9L in their last 42 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — MVV at home or Roda away?
Roda's away record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — MVV at home: 1.14 PPG; Roda away: 1.62 PPG.
Have MVV or Roda been keeping clean sheets recently?
MVV have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Roda in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since January 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. The two were last together as recently as 6 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Roda won 0-3 on 17 Mar 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, MVV have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Roda — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
MVV
3
Draws
6
Roda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between MVV and Roda?
From 10 meetings on record, MVV have won 1, Roda have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did MVV and Roda last play each other?
They last met on 6 September 2026, when MVV 1-1 Roda.
Who has won more matches between MVV and Roda?
Roda have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
MVV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — MVV 62%, Roda 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (MVV) and 57% (Roda). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = MVV home games / Roda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when MVV play Roda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of MVV's games and 57% of Roda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is MVV vs Roda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of MVV's matches and 57% of Roda's.
Do MVV and Roda tend to score early?
MVV have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Roda in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
MVV and Roda share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at De Geusselt, Regular Season - 5, as MVV and Roda drew 1-1 in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting MVV 1.28 xG and Roda 1.66 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of MVV attack 1.13 / defence 1.04 against Roda attack 1.19 / defence 0.73, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it MVV 30% | Draw 24% | Roda 46%, with Roda to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (MVV 64%, Roda 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
MVV's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Roda's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Roda arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 1.12. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. MVV (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line. Roda (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.