MVV 1-5 Heracles – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Heracles at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this MVV vs Heracles encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
De Geusselt plays host to MVV versus Heracles in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off: Sunday 18 October 2026 at 14:45 UTC.
Form
MVV (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for MVV, so this record blends games from this season and last.
MVV's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at De Geusselt this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Heracles have collected 2.50 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 8W 1D 1L. Last five: W L W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Heracles, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Heracles's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Heracles are 0.90 PPG clear of MVV in recent Eerste Divisie fixtures (2.50 vs 1.60). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — MVV lead 0W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Feb 2023, ended 0–2 with Heracles winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
MVV — key trading statistics (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
Heracles — key trading statistics (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — MVV 59% versus Heracles 52%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (MVV 64% | Heracles 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects MVV 1.40 xG and Heracles 2.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: MVV attack 0.761 / defence 1.024 | Heracles attack 1.363 / defence 0.980. League average goals — home 1.884 / away 1.433. MVV's attack strength of 0.761 is below the league average — the 1.40 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Heracles have an above-average attack strength of 1.363 — the away xG of 2.00 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 48 MVV games / 10 Heracles games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: MVV 27% | Draw 22% | Heracles 51%. Fair-value odds: MVV 3.70 | Draw 4.55 | Heracles 1.96. Heracles hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.40. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.40 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.40 / 2.00) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Heracles are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Heracles if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.40 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates are neutral: MVV 40% | Heracles 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: MVV vs Heracles | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: De Geusselt • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Oct 2026, 14:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: MVV 27% | Draw 22% | Heracles 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 65% | xG MVV 1.40 / Heracles 2.00 • Poisson strength factors: MVV attack 0.761 / def 1.024 | Heracles attack 1.363 / def 0.980 | league avg home 1.884 / away 1.433 • Poisson stance: Heracles (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
MVV xG
Expected Goals
2.00
Heracles xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does MVV vs Heracles kick off?
MVV vs Heracles kicked off at 14:45 on Sunday 18 October 2026 at De Geusselt.
What was the final score in MVV vs Heracles?
MVV 1 - 5 Heracles.
Where is MVV vs Heracles being played?
The match is being played at De Geusselt.
What competition is MVV vs Heracles part of?
MVV vs Heracles is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win MVV vs Heracles?
Our statistical model gives MVV a 27% chance of winning, Heracles a 51% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Heracles the favourite.
Will both teams score in MVV vs Heracles?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both MVV and Heracles will score (BTTS).
Will MVV vs Heracles have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between MVV and Heracles?
Record (2 meetings): MVV 0W | Draws 1 | Heracles 1W.
What form are MVV and Heracles in?
MVV (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Heracles (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 3.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates MVV's attack at 0.76x the league average against Heracles's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.40 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Heracles's attack (1.36x) against MVV's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 2.00.
These ratings are built from 48/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-2 (6.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Heracles Win
27%
3.71
22%
4.62
51%
1.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
0 – 1
6.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
MVV xG
Total xG
3.40
2.00
Heracles xG
3.71
27%
Home win
4.62
22%
Draw
1.95
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.88
Clean Sheet
14%
7.40
25%
4.07
Win to Nil
4%
27.46
13%
7.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 6.6 | 6.6 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 4.7 | 9.3 | 9.3 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 6.5 | 6.6 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for MVV vs Heracles?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are MVV and Heracles expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for MVV and 2.00 for Heracles, a combined total of 3.40.
How confident is the prediction model for MVV vs Heracles?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 44 outings, MVV have picked up 1.14 PPG on a 13W 11D 20L record — L-L-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for MVV is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Heracles's form line: 13W 5D 26L from 44 games, 1.00 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-W. The sample for Heracles is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.14 PPG for MVV against 1.00 for Heracles. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, MVV have posted 1.50 PPG from 22 outings (9W 6D 7L).
On the road, Heracles have gone 4W 2D 16L from 22 away games — 0.64 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, MVV come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
MVV are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Heracles are on 1.50 scored and 2.20 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
MVV
Blended
Heracles
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are MVV and Heracles in coming into this match?
MVV have gone 13W 11D 20L in their last 44 games (1.14 PPG), while Heracles have gone 13W 5D 26L in their last 44 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — MVV at home or Heracles away?
MVV's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — MVV at home: 1.50 PPG; Heracles away: 0.64 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 3 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. The two were last together as recently as 18 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Heracles go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Heracles won 1-5 on 18 Oct 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, MVV have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Heracles — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
0
MVV
1
Draws
2
Heracles
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between MVV and Heracles?
From 3 meetings on record, MVV have won 0, Heracles have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did MVV and Heracles last play each other?
They last met on 18 October 2026, when MVV 1-5 Heracles.
Who has won more matches between MVV and Heracles?
Heracles have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
MVV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Heracles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — MVV 64%, Heracles 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for MVV and 77% for Heracles. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 54% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Heracles in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = MVV home games / Heracles away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when MVV play Heracles?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of MVV's games and 54% of Heracles's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is MVV vs Heracles usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of MVV's matches and 77% of Heracles's.
Do MVV and Heracles tend to score early?
MVV have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Heracles in 91% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Heracles run riot with a 1-5 hammering of MVV.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Heracles beat MVV 1-5 at De Geusselt, Regular Season - 11, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting MVV 1.40 xG and Heracles 2.00 xG, a combined 3.40. The scoreboard read 1-5 for 6 actual goals. Heracles outscored their 2.00 projection by 3.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of MVV attack 0.76 / defence 1.02 against Heracles attack 1.36 / defence 0.98, drawn from 48/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it MVV 27% | Draw 22% | Heracles 51%, with Heracles to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (MVV 64%, Heracles 73%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
MVV's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Heracles's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — MVV 1.14 PPG, Heracles 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Heracles win broke the near-deadlock. MVV (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.77 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Heracles (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.23 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.59 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.