Jong Utrecht vs Waalwijk – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong Utrecht at 43%, yet in-form Waalwijk provide a compelling counter-argument — this Jong Utrecht vs Waalwijk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees Waalwijk travel to Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch to take on Jong Utrecht. The game is scheduled for Friday 11 December 2026, 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Jong Utrecht have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: W W L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.30 conceded. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Jong Utrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jong Utrecht's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 games at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Jong Utrecht are significantly better at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Waalwijk stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L D L D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Waalwijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Waalwijk's form when playing away from home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Waalwijk's 1.40 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Jong Utrecht's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Jong Utrecht register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Waalwijk in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Jong Utrecht, 0 for Waalwijk and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 26 Jan 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Jong Utrecht trading profile (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
Waalwijk trading profile (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jong Utrecht 67% and Waalwijk 78% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Jong Utrecht 67% | Waalwijk 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong Utrecht 1.70 xG and Waalwijk 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong Utrecht attack 1.001 / defence 1.290 | Waalwijk attack 0.795 / defence 0.913. League average goals — home 1.856 / away 1.461. Data: 48 Jong Utrecht games / 49 Waalwijk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong Utrecht 43% | Draw 23% | Waalwijk 34%. Fair-value odds: Jong Utrecht 2.33 | Draw 4.35 | Waalwijk 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.20. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.20 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.70 / 1.50) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Jong Utrecht at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Waalwijk (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jong Utrecht offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.20 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Jong Utrecht 60% | Waalwijk 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong Utrecht vs Waalwijk | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch • Kick-off: Friday 11 Dec 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong Utrecht 43% | Draw 23% | Waalwijk 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 63% | xG Jong Utrecht 1.70 / Waalwijk 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Jong Utrecht attack 1.001 / def 1.290 | Waalwijk attack 0.795 / def 0.913 | league avg home 1.856 / away 1.461 • Poisson stance: Jong Utrecht (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Jong Utrecht xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Waalwijk xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong Utrecht vs Waalwijk kick off?
Jong Utrecht vs Waalwijk is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 11 December 2026 at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch.
Where is Jong Utrecht vs Waalwijk being played?
The match is being played at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch.
What competition is Jong Utrecht vs Waalwijk part of?
Jong Utrecht vs Waalwijk is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong Utrecht vs Waalwijk?
Our statistical model gives Jong Utrecht a 43% chance of winning, Waalwijk a 34% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Jong Utrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong Utrecht vs Waalwijk?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Jong Utrecht and Waalwijk will score (BTTS).
Will Jong Utrecht vs Waalwijk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Utrecht and Waalwijk?
Record (2 meetings): Jong Utrecht 1W | Draws 1 | Waalwijk 0W.
What form are Jong Utrecht and Waalwijk in?
Jong Utrecht (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.30 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. Waalwijk (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Jong Utrecht's attack rating (1.00) and Waalwijk's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.70 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Waalwijk's attack versus Jong Utrecht's defence, projects 1.50 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong Utrecht Win
43%
2.35
23%
4.29
34%
2.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Jong Utrecht xG
Total xG
3.20
1.50
Waalwijk xG
2.35
43%
Home win
4.29
23%
Draw
2.93
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.73
Clean Sheet
22%
4.48
18%
5.45
Win to Nil
10%
10.52
6%
15.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 6.1 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 10.4 | 7.8 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.8 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 5.0 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong Utrecht vs Waalwijk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Jong Utrecht and Waalwijk expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Jong Utrecht and 1.50 for Waalwijk, a combined total of 3.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong Utrecht vs Waalwijk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Jong Utrecht's recent record stands at 14W 11D 24L from 49 games, a 1.08 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Jong Utrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Waalwijk, meanwhile, have gone 17W 18D 14L across 49 games — 1.41 PPG, with W-L-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for Waalwijk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jong Utrecht on 1.08 PPG, Waalwijk on 1.41. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Jong Utrecht have managed 9W 5D 10L from 24 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Waalwijk's away record stands at 7W 10D 7L across 24 trips, a 1.29 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Jong Utrecht are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; Waalwijk are on 1.80 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong Utrecht have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Waalwijk in 78%.
Last 49 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong Utrecht
Blended
Waalwijk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong Utrecht and Waalwijk in coming into this match?
Jong Utrecht have gone 14W 11D 24L in their last 49 games (1.08 PPG), while Waalwijk have gone 17W 18D 14L in their last 49 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong Utrecht at home or Waalwijk away?
Jong Utrecht's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong Utrecht at home: 1.33 PPG; Waalwijk away: 1.29 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Jong Utrecht and Waalwijk runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 26 January 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Jong Utrecht
1
Draws
0
Waalwijk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Utrecht and Waalwijk?
From 2 meetings on record, Jong Utrecht have won 1, Waalwijk have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Jong Utrecht and Waalwijk last play each other?
They last met on 26 January 2026, when Waalwijk 2-2 Jong Utrecht.
Who has won more matches between Jong Utrecht and Waalwijk?
Jong Utrecht have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Jong Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Jong Utrecht at 71%, Waalwijk at 71%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Jong Utrecht and 58% for Waalwijk. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 58% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong Utrecht home games / Waalwijk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong Utrecht play Waalwijk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Jong Utrecht's games and 71% of Waalwijk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jong Utrecht vs Waalwijk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Jong Utrecht's matches and 58% of Waalwijk's.
Do Jong Utrecht and Waalwijk tend to score early?
Jong Utrecht have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Waalwijk in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.