Jong PSV U21 0-1 Roda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Jong PSV U21 at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jong PSV U21 vs Roda encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Jong PSV U21 host Roda at De Herdgang in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 15 September 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Jong PSV U21 — All Games: 7W 0D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Jong PSV U21 have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Jong PSV U21 at De Herdgang this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.30 lags behind their overall 2.10 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at De Herdgang this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Roda stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Roda have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Roda away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, Jong PSV U21 have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 1.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Roda have the better historical record — 4 wins from 8 previous contests against 1 for Jong PSV U21.
The 8 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 7 Mar 2025, ended 1–2 with Roda winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Roda have won 4 of 8 previous encounters, and at 4.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Jong PSV U21 in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 95% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
Roda in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jong PSV U21 67% and Roda 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong PSV U21 72% | Roda 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong PSV U21 1.92 xG and Roda 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong PSV U21 attack 1.019 / defence 1.015 | Roda attack 1.096 / defence 1.115. League average goals — home 1.687 / away 1.249. Data: 43 Jong PSV U21 games / 43 Roda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong PSV U21 50% | Draw 22% | Roda 28%. Fair-value odds: Jong PSV U21 2.00 | Draw 4.55 | Roda 3.57. Jong PSV U21 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.31. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.31 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.92 / 1.39) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
Roda lead the H2H ledger, but Jong PSV U21 carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Jong PSV U21 at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jong PSV U21 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.31 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Jong PSV U21 80% | Roda 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong PSV U21 vs Roda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: De Herdgang • Kick-off: Monday 15 Sep 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong PSV U21 50% | Draw 22% | Roda 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 64% | xG Jong PSV U21 1.92 / Roda 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Jong PSV U21 attack 1.019 / def 1.015 | Roda attack 1.096 / def 1.115 | league avg home 1.687 / away 1.249 • Poisson stance: Jong PSV U21 (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.92
Jong PSV U21 xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Roda xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong PSV U21 vs Roda kick off?
Jong PSV U21 vs Roda kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 15 September 2025 at De Herdgang.
What was the final score in Jong PSV U21 vs Roda?
Jong PSV U21 0 - 1 Roda.
Where is Jong PSV U21 vs Roda being played?
The match is being played at De Herdgang.
What competition is Jong PSV U21 vs Roda part of?
Jong PSV U21 vs Roda is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong PSV U21 vs Roda?
Our statistical model gives Jong PSV U21 a 50% chance of winning, Roda a 28% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Jong PSV U21 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong PSV U21 vs Roda?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Jong PSV U21 and Roda will score (BTTS).
Will Jong PSV U21 vs Roda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong PSV U21 and Roda?
Record (8 meetings): Jong PSV U21 1W | Draws 3 | Roda 4W.
What form are Jong PSV U21 and Roda in?
Jong PSV U21 (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Roda (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Jong PSV U21's attack rating (1.02) and Roda's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.92 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Roda's attack versus Jong PSV U21's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-2 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong PSV U21 Win
50%
2.00
22%
4.50
28%
3.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
7.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.92
Jong PSV U21 xG
Total xG
3.31
1.39
Roda xG
2.00
50%
Home win
4.50
22%
Draw
3.59
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.78
Clean Sheet
25%
4.01
15%
6.81
Win to Nil
12%
8.04
4%
24.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 5.1 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 9.8 | 6.8 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.4 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 6.0 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong PSV U21 vs Roda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Jong PSV U21 and Roda expected to score?
The model projects 1.92 expected goals for Jong PSV U21 and 1.39 for Roda, a combined total of 3.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong PSV U21 vs Roda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Jong PSV U21 come into this having played 43 games, going 13W 6D 24L for 1.05 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Jong PSV U21, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Roda sit at 1.33 PPG from 43 outings (15W 12D 16L), a run that reads W-W-L-D-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Roda, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jong PSV U21 on 1.05 PPG, Roda on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Jong PSV U21's home form reads 6W 3D 12L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Roda have taken 0.95 points per game from 21 outings (5W 5D 11L).
Goals in Recent Form
Jong PSV U21 are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 2.09 conceded per game recently; Roda are on 1.33 scored and 1.49 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong PSV U21 have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 43 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong PSV U21
Early Season
Roda
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong PSV U21 and Roda in coming into this match?
Jong PSV U21 have gone 13W 6D 24L in their last 43 games (1.05 PPG), while Roda have gone 15W 12D 16L in their last 43 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong PSV U21 at home or Roda away?
Jong PSV U21's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong PSV U21 at home: 1.00 PPG; Roda away: 0.95 PPG.
Have Jong PSV U21 or Roda been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jong PSV U21 have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, Roda in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 6 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Apr 2023, when Jong PSV U21 won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jong PSV U21's record when hosting Roda specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Jong PSV U21
3
Draws
5
Roda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong PSV U21 and Roda?
From 10 meetings on record, Jong PSV U21 have won 2, Roda have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Jong PSV U21 and Roda last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2026, when Roda 0-2 Jong PSV U21.
Who has won more matches between Jong PSV U21 and Roda?
Roda have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Jong PSV U21 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 95% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Jong PSV U21 at 86%, Roda at 71%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 86% for Jong PSV U21 and 67% for Roda. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong PSV U21 home games / Roda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong PSV U21 play Roda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 86% of Jong PSV U21's games and 71% of Roda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jong PSV U21 vs Roda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 86% of Jong PSV U21's matches and 67% of Roda's.
Do Jong PSV U21 and Roda tend to score early?
Jong PSV U21 have had a goal before half-time in 95% of their recent matches, Roda in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Roda defy the odds to beat Jong PSV U21 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Roda beat Jong PSV U21 0-1 at De Herdgang, Regular Season - 6, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong PSV U21 1.92 xG and Roda 1.39 xG, a combined 3.31. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Jong PSV U21 fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong PSV U21 attack 1.02 / defence 1.01 against Roda attack 1.10 / defence 1.11, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong PSV U21 50% | Draw 22% | Roda 28%, with Jong PSV U21 to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual Roda win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong PSV U21 72%, Roda 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong PSV U21's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Roda's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jong PSV U21 1.05 PPG, Roda 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Roda win broke the near-deadlock. Jong PSV U21 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.76 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.33 average — tighter than their form line. Roda (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.95 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.