Jong AZ 4-1 Jong PSV U21 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong AZ at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jong AZ vs Jong PSV U21 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 29 sees Jong PSV U21 travel to AFAS Trainingscomplex to take on Jong AZ. The game is scheduled for Friday 8 March 2024, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jong AZ stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Jong AZ at AFAS Trainingscomplex this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Jong PSV U21 — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Jong PSV U21 away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Jong AZ 1.50 PPG, Jong PSV U21 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Jong AZ, 1 for Jong PSV U21 and 1 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 24 Nov 2023, ended 2–1 with Jong AZ winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Jong AZ trading profile (66 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Jong PSV U21 trading profile (66 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jong AZ 61% and Jong PSV U21 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Jong AZ 61% | Jong PSV U21 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong AZ 2.35 xG and Jong PSV U21 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong AZ attack 1.133 / defence 1.011 | Jong PSV U21 attack 1.176 / defence 1.283. League average goals — home 1.619 / away 1.366. Jong PSV U21 bring a strong defensive rating of 1.283 — this is suppressing Jong AZ's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 66 Jong AZ games / 66 Jong PSV U21 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong AZ 53% | Draw 22% | Jong PSV U21 25%. Fair-value odds: Jong AZ 1.89 | Draw 4.55 | Jong PSV U21 4.00. Jong AZ hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 76% | BTTS probability 74% | Total xG 3.98. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 76% — a total xG of 3.98 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 74% reflects that both xG figures (2.35 / 1.62) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Jong AZ as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jong AZ offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.98 combined xG gives a 76% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 74% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Jong AZ 40% | Jong PSV U21 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong AZ vs Jong PSV U21 | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: AFAS Trainingscomplex • Kick-off: Friday 8 Mar 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong AZ 53% | Draw 22% | Jong PSV U21 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 76% | BTTS 74% | xG Jong AZ 2.35 / Jong PSV U21 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: Jong AZ attack 1.133 / def 1.011 | Jong PSV U21 attack 1.176 / def 1.283 | league avg home 1.619 / away 1.366 • Poisson stance: Jong AZ (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.35
Jong AZ xG
Expected Goals
1.62
Jong PSV U21 xG
74%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
56%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong AZ vs Jong PSV U21 kick off?
Jong AZ vs Jong PSV U21 kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 8 March 2024 at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What was the final score in Jong AZ vs Jong PSV U21?
Jong AZ 4 - 1 Jong PSV U21.
Where is Jong AZ vs Jong PSV U21 being played?
The match is being played at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What competition is Jong AZ vs Jong PSV U21 part of?
Jong AZ vs Jong PSV U21 is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong AZ vs Jong PSV U21?
Our statistical model gives Jong AZ a 53% chance of winning, Jong PSV U21 a 25% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Jong AZ the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong AZ vs Jong PSV U21?
Our model estimates a 74% probability that both Jong AZ and Jong PSV U21 will score (BTTS).
Will Jong AZ vs Jong PSV U21 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 76%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and Jong PSV U21?
Record (4 meetings): Jong AZ 2W | Draws 1 | Jong PSV U21 1W.
What form are Jong AZ and Jong PSV U21 in?
Jong AZ (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-D-L-D. Jong PSV U21 (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Jong AZ's attacking strength (1.13x league average) is weighed against Jong PSV U21's defensive record (1.28x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.35. The same calculation in reverse, Jong PSV U21's attack versus Jong AZ's defence, projects 1.62 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 8.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.1%), 2-2 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong AZ Win
53%
1.89
22%
4.58
25%
3.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.2%
Draw
2 – 2
6.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.35
Jong AZ xG
Total xG
3.98
1.62
Jong PSV U21 xG
1.89
53%
Home win
4.58
22%
Draw
3.96
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
76%
Over 2.5
1.32
24%
Under 2.5
4.17
56%
Over 3.5
1.79
44%
Under 3.5
2.27
37%
Over 4.5
2.70
63%
Under 4.5
1.59
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
74%
BTTS Yes
1.36
26%
BTTS No
3.81
Clean Sheet
20%
5.07
10%
10.52
Win to Nil
10%
9.58
2%
41.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.9 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 4.4 | 7.2 | 5.8 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.4 | 6.8 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 6.6 | 5.4 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 3.9 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong AZ vs Jong PSV U21?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.4%.
How many goals are Jong AZ and Jong PSV U21 expected to score?
The model projects 2.35 expected goals for Jong AZ and 1.62 for Jong PSV U21, a combined total of 3.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong AZ vs Jong PSV U21?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Jong AZ's recent record stands at 25W 16D 25L from 66 games, a 1.38 PPG return, with W-W-D-L-D in the last five.
Jong PSV U21, meanwhile, have gone 19W 16D 31L across 66 games — 1.11 PPG, with L-W-D-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jong AZ on 1.38 PPG, Jong PSV U21 on 1.11. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Jong AZ have managed 15W 9D 8L from 32 games — 1.69 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Jong PSV U21's away record stands at 7W 9D 16L across 32 trips, a 0.94 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jong AZ come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Jong AZ are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Jong PSV U21 are on 1.55 scored and 1.83 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong AZ have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Jong PSV U21 in 67%.
Last 66 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong AZ
Current Season
Jong PSV U21
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong AZ and Jong PSV U21 in coming into this match?
Jong AZ have gone 25W 16D 25L in their last 66 games (1.38 PPG), while Jong PSV U21 have gone 19W 16D 31L in their last 66 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong AZ at home or Jong PSV U21 away?
Jong AZ's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong AZ at home: 1.69 PPG; Jong PSV U21 away: 0.94 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Jong AZ and Jong PSV U21 runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. The two were last together as recently as 14 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Mar 2024, when Jong AZ won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jong AZ's record when hosting Jong PSV U21 specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Jong AZ
3
Draws
4
Jong PSV U21
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and Jong PSV U21?
From 10 meetings on record, Jong AZ have won 3, Jong PSV U21 have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Jong AZ and Jong PSV U21 last play each other?
They last met on 14 September 2026, when Jong PSV U21 1-1 Jong AZ.
Who has won more matches between Jong AZ and Jong PSV U21?
Jong PSV U21 have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Jong PSV U21 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong AZ 56%, Jong PSV U21 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Jong AZ and 66% for Jong PSV U21. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jong AZ keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Jong PSV U21 in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong AZ home games / Jong PSV U21 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong AZ play Jong PSV U21?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Jong AZ's games and 69% of Jong PSV U21's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jong AZ vs Jong PSV U21 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Jong AZ's matches and 66% of Jong PSV U21's.
Do Jong AZ and Jong PSV U21 tend to score early?
Jong AZ have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Jong PSV U21 in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Jong AZ run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Jong PSV U21.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong AZ beat Jong PSV U21 4-1 at AFAS Trainingscomplex, Regular Season - 29, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong AZ 2.35 xG and Jong PSV U21 1.62 xG, a combined 3.98. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Jong AZ beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong AZ attack 1.13 / defence 1.01 against Jong PSV U21 attack 1.18 / defence 1.28, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong AZ 53% | Draw 22% | Jong PSV U21 25%, with Jong AZ to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 56% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 74% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong AZ 61%, Jong PSV U21 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong AZ's trading profile (66 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Jong PSV U21's trading profile (66 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jong AZ 1.38 PPG, Jong PSV U21 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jong AZ win broke the near-deadlock. Jong AZ (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.88 average — above their attacking norm. Jong PSV U21 (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.