Jong AZ 1-2 Jong Ajax – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Jong AZ (39%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Jong AZ face Jong Ajax.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Jong AZ host Jong Ajax at AFAS Trainingscomplex in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 12 January 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jong AZ stand at 4W 0D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Jong AZ, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jong AZ's form when playing at home: 2W 0D 8L across 10 games at AFAS Trainingscomplex this term (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.60 lags behind their overall 1.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at AFAS Trainingscomplex this season.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Jong Ajax have recorded 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Jong Ajax, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Jong Ajax have posted 0W 2D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Jong AZ are in the better shape of the two on current Eerste Divisie data — 0.70 PPG ahead (1.20 vs 0.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
Jong AZ hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 5 wins from 9 previous encounters compared to 2 for Jong Ajax, with 2 draws in between.
The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 18 Aug 2025, ended 1–4 with Jong Ajax winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Jong AZ and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 9 meetings, combined with an average of 3.7 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Jong AZ in-play and half-time data (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
Jong Ajax in-play and half-time data (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong AZ 64% versus Jong Ajax 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong AZ 68% | Jong Ajax 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong AZ 1.64 xG and Jong Ajax 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong AZ attack 0.779 / defence 1.199 | Jong Ajax attack 0.872 / defence 1.211. League average goals — home 1.741 / away 1.529. Jong AZ's attack strength of 0.779 is below the league average — the 1.64 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Jong Ajax bring a strong defensive rating of 1.211 — this is suppressing Jong AZ's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 59 Jong AZ games / 59 Jong Ajax games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong AZ 39% | Draw 23% | Jong Ajax 37%. Fair-value odds: Jong AZ 2.56 | Draw 4.35 | Jong Ajax 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.24. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.24 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.64 / 1.60) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Jong AZ at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jong AZ offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.24 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Jong AZ 30% | Jong Ajax 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong AZ vs Jong Ajax | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: AFAS Trainingscomplex • Kick-off: Monday 12 Jan 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong AZ 39% | Draw 23% | Jong Ajax 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 64% | xG Jong AZ 1.64 / Jong Ajax 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: Jong AZ attack 0.779 / def 1.199 | Jong Ajax attack 0.872 / def 1.211 | league avg home 1.741 / away 1.529 • Poisson stance: Jong AZ (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Jong AZ xG
Expected Goals
1.60
Jong Ajax xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong AZ vs Jong Ajax kick off?
Jong AZ vs Jong Ajax kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 12 January 2026 at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What was the final score in Jong AZ vs Jong Ajax?
Jong AZ 1 - 2 Jong Ajax.
Where is Jong AZ vs Jong Ajax being played?
The match is being played at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What competition is Jong AZ vs Jong Ajax part of?
Jong AZ vs Jong Ajax is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong AZ vs Jong Ajax?
Our statistical model gives Jong AZ a 39% chance of winning, Jong Ajax a 37% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Jong AZ the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong AZ vs Jong Ajax?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Jong AZ and Jong Ajax will score (BTTS).
Will Jong AZ vs Jong Ajax have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and Jong Ajax?
Record (9 meetings): Jong AZ 5W | Draws 2 | Jong Ajax 2W.
What form are Jong AZ and Jong Ajax in?
Jong AZ (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Jong Ajax (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Jong AZ's attacking strength (0.78x league average) is weighed against Jong Ajax's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.64. The same calculation in reverse, Jong Ajax's attack versus Jong AZ's defence, projects 1.60 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong AZ Win
39%
2.55
23%
4.26
37%
2.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Jong AZ xG
Total xG
3.24
1.60
Jong Ajax xG
2.55
39%
Home win
4.26
23%
Draw
2.68
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.55
36%
BTTS No
2.81
Clean Sheet
20%
4.94
19%
5.17
Win to Nil
8%
12.60
7%
13.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 6.3 | 5.0 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 10.3 | 8.2 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.4 | 6.7 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.6 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong AZ vs Jong Ajax?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Jong AZ and Jong Ajax expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Jong AZ and 1.60 for Jong Ajax, a combined total of 3.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong AZ vs Jong Ajax?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Jong AZ come into this having played 59 games, going 20W 12D 27L for 1.22 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-L. The sample for Jong AZ is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Jong Ajax sit at 0.81 PPG from 59 outings (11W 15D 33L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Jong Ajax is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jong AZ carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.41 PPG clear of Jong Ajax — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Jong AZ's home form reads 8W 6D 15L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.03 PPG return.
Away from home, Jong Ajax have taken 0.48 points per game from 29 outings (3W 5D 21L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jong AZ come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Jong AZ are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; Jong Ajax are on 1.08 scored and 1.59 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong AZ have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 59 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong AZ
Blended
Jong Ajax
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong AZ and Jong Ajax in coming into this match?
Jong AZ have gone 20W 12D 27L in their last 59 games (1.22 PPG), while Jong Ajax have gone 11W 15D 33L in their last 59 (0.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong AZ at home or Jong Ajax away?
Jong AZ's home record (1.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong AZ at home: 1.03 PPG; Jong Ajax away: 0.48 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 12 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Jong Ajax go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Sep 2023, when Jong AZ won 5-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jong AZ's record when hosting Jong Ajax specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Jong AZ
2
Draws
3
Jong Ajax
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and Jong Ajax?
From 10 meetings on record, Jong AZ have won 5, Jong Ajax have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Jong AZ and Jong Ajax last play each other?
They last met on 12 January 2026, when Jong AZ 1-2 Jong Ajax.
Who has won more matches between Jong AZ and Jong Ajax?
Jong AZ have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Jong Ajax are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong AZ 62%, Jong Ajax 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Jong AZ and 66% for Jong Ajax. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 55% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jong AZ have failed to score in 28% of games; Jong Ajax in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong AZ home games / Jong Ajax away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong AZ play Jong Ajax?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Jong AZ's games and 59% of Jong Ajax's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jong AZ vs Jong Ajax usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Jong AZ's matches and 66% of Jong Ajax's.
Do Jong AZ and Jong Ajax tend to score early?
Jong AZ have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Jong Ajax in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Jong Ajax defy the odds to beat Jong AZ 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong Ajax beat Jong AZ 1-2 at AFAS Trainingscomplex, Regular Season - 22, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong AZ 1.64 xG and Jong Ajax 1.60 xG, a combined 3.24. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong AZ attack 0.78 / defence 1.20 against Jong Ajax attack 0.87 / defence 1.21, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong AZ 39% | Draw 23% | Jong Ajax 37%, with Jong AZ to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Jong Ajax win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong AZ 68%, Jong Ajax 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong AZ's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Jong Ajax's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Jong AZ arrived the stronger side — 1.22 PPG against 0.81. Form was overturned, with Jong Ajax winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Jong Ajax (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.03 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.