Jong AZ 2-3 Cambuur – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cambuur at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jong AZ vs Cambuur fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
AFAS Trainingscomplex plays host to Jong AZ versus Cambuur in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Friday 1 November 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Jong AZ have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Jong AZ, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jong AZ at AFAS Trainingscomplex this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Jong AZ are significantly better at AFAS Trainingscomplex than their overall form suggests.
Cambuur's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Cambuur, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cambuur away from home this season: 5W 0D 5L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Jong AZ, 1.30 for Cambuur — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Jong AZ lead 2W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Mar 2024, ended 2–0 with Jong AZ winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Jong AZ — key trading statistics (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Cambuur — key trading statistics (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jong AZ 68% and Cambuur 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Jong AZ 72% | Cambuur 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong AZ 1.28 xG and Cambuur 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong AZ attack 1.281 / defence 1.161 | Cambuur attack 0.868 / defence 0.673. League average goals — home 1.481 / away 1.465. Jong AZ carry an above-average attack strength of 1.281 — their λ of 1.28 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Cambuur's defence strength of 0.673 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 50 Jong AZ games / 50 Cambuur games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong AZ 31% | Draw 28% | Cambuur 40%. Fair-value odds: Jong AZ 3.23 | Draw 3.57 | Cambuur 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cambuur are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cambuur if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.75 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates are neutral: Jong AZ 80% | Cambuur 10%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong AZ vs Cambuur | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: AFAS Trainingscomplex • Kick-off: Friday 1 Nov 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong AZ 31% | Draw 28% | Cambuur 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 57% | xG Jong AZ 1.28 / Cambuur 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Jong AZ attack 1.281 / def 1.161 | Cambuur attack 0.868 / def 0.673 | league avg home 1.481 / away 1.465 • Poisson stance: Cambuur (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Jong AZ xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Cambuur xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong AZ vs Cambuur kick off?
Jong AZ vs Cambuur kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 1 November 2024 at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What was the final score in Jong AZ vs Cambuur?
Jong AZ 2 - 3 Cambuur.
Where is Jong AZ vs Cambuur being played?
The match is being played at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What competition is Jong AZ vs Cambuur part of?
Jong AZ vs Cambuur is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong AZ vs Cambuur?
Our statistical model gives Jong AZ a 31% chance of winning, Cambuur a 40% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Cambuur the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong AZ vs Cambuur?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Jong AZ and Cambuur will score (BTTS).
Will Jong AZ vs Cambuur have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and Cambuur?
Record (2 meetings): Jong AZ 2W | Draws 0 | Cambuur 0W.
What form are Jong AZ and Cambuur in?
Jong AZ (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Cambuur (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
What do the betting odds say about Jong AZ vs Cambuur?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Jong AZ's attack at 1.28x the league average against Cambuur's defence at 0.67x — combine the two and it projects 1.28 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cambuur's attack (0.87x) against Jong AZ's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.48.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 0-0 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cambuur Win
31%
3.20
28%
3.52
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Jong AZ xG
Total xG
2.75
1.48
Cambuur xG
3.20
31%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
23%
4.38
28%
3.59
Win to Nil
7%
14.00
11%
8.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 9.4 | 6.9 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 12.0 | 8.9 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.7 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong AZ vs Cambuur?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Jong AZ and Cambuur expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Jong AZ and 1.48 for Cambuur, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong AZ vs Cambuur?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Jong AZ's recent record stands at 20W 10D 20L from 50 games, a 1.40 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Jong AZ is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cambuur, meanwhile, have gone 18W 9D 23L across 50 games — 1.26 PPG, with L-W-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Cambuur is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.40 PPG for Jong AZ against 1.26 for Cambuur. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Jong AZ have managed 14W 3D 8L from 25 games — 1.80 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.40 PPG overall — Jong AZ are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Cambuur's away record stands at 11W 2D 12L across 25 trips, a 1.40 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jong AZ come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Jong AZ are averaging 1.66 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Cambuur are on 1.64 scored and 1.68 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong AZ have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games; Cambuur in 64%.
Last 50 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong AZ
Blended
Cambuur
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong AZ and Cambuur in coming into this match?
Jong AZ have gone 20W 10D 20L in their last 50 games (1.40 PPG), while Cambuur have gone 18W 9D 23L in their last 50 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong AZ at home or Cambuur away?
Jong AZ's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong AZ at home: 1.80 PPG; Cambuur away: 1.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since December 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 20 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jong AZ have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Cambuur — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Jong AZ
0
Draws
2
Cambuur
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and Cambuur?
From 6 meetings on record, Jong AZ have won 4, Cambuur have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Jong AZ and Cambuur last play each other?
They last met on 20 March 2026, when Cambuur 3-4 Jong AZ.
Who has won more matches between Jong AZ and Cambuur?
Jong AZ have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong AZ 60%, Cambuur 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 72% for Jong AZ and 60% for Cambuur. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong AZ home games / Cambuur away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong AZ play Cambuur?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Jong AZ's games and 56% of Cambuur's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jong AZ vs Cambuur usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of Jong AZ's matches and 60% of Cambuur's.
Do Jong AZ and Cambuur tend to score early?
Jong AZ have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Cambuur in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cambuur edge out Jong AZ 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cambuur beat Jong AZ 2-3 at AFAS Trainingscomplex, Regular Season - 13, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong AZ 1.28 xG and Cambuur 1.48 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Cambuur outscored their 1.48 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong AZ attack 1.28 / defence 1.16 against Cambuur attack 0.87 / defence 0.67, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong AZ 31% | Draw 28% | Cambuur 40%, with Cambuur to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong AZ 72%, Cambuur 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong AZ's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Cambuur's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jong AZ 1.40 PPG, Cambuur 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cambuur win broke the near-deadlock. Jong AZ (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cambuur (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.60 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.